Aliaksandr Jarashuk: It is too early to say about social protests that are ripening in Belarus

gazetaby.com

However, attempts to ignore economic problems on the part of the Belarusan authorities have negative impact, and these are in the first turn working people.

Recently dozens of enterprises all over Belarus are either suspending work or switch to part-time work or use any other way to send their workers home, since there is no work for them. Some enterprises continue their work after such “breaks”. But the problems aren’t solved.

The situation in the Minsk Automobile plant and in the Belarusan industry on the whole described Aliaksandr Jarashuk, the head of the Belarusian Congress Of Democratic Trade Unions (BCDTU) in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- After a two-week break at a number of plants on April 7 Minsk Automobile plant and Minsk tractor plant were to resume their work. Have the expectations of the giant enterprises come true?

- If you are seriously ill, the injection will only relieve your pain for a short time, but the illness won’t disappear. The same thing is happening with our giant enterprises - Minsk Automobile factory, Minsk tractor plant, and others: they got a temporary respite, but problems with industry and realization of goods didn’t disappear anywhere. As far as I know, the problem of allocating a regular support of 100 billion Belarusian rubles is under discussion. This injection might revive the manufacture of lorries for some time, but what about their realization?

Russian market will be rather dead than alive for us for quite a long time; neither there will be any breakthrough with entry to other markets. The government assures us that problems of large state enterprises are temporary and are related exclusively to the Russian crisis. It’s a pity that the authorities haven’t found enough courage to admit that crisis in the Belarusan economy is of systemic nature and requires structural changes in the economic policy.

- Minsk Automobile plant, Minsk tractor plant, Gomselmash, and many other smaller plants have already switched to a short working week. What scale has such phenomenon as “a short working week” taken? Are there any large plants with the normal operating schedule left in our country?

- There is nothing surprising in the fact that the malfunction of the normal operating schedule of giant plants caused a whole chain of problems such as breaks in work and shortened working week at hundreds of industrial plants in the country.  Of course, among them there are those plants that work without any malfunction – these are Belaruskalij, Mozyrski refinery, Naftan, and others.

- In situation of a crisis the majority of industrial enterprises faced surplus of workers. How is state going to resolve this problem: to wait until the end of the presidential campaign or is it that the massive dismissals have already started?

- The official policy declares that in the time of temporary difficulties (the word “crisis” isn’t pronounced, it’s a taboo) all measures for preserving work collectives should be applied. That is why there seems to be no reasons to present claims to economic authorities; we are rather facing the mass walkout of workers initiated by the workers themselves as a reaction to them being uncalled for, idle, and having reduced salaries. According to our information, over the last few years the number of workers at the Minsk Automobile plant has reduced from 25 to 17 thousand. Since the process with employment seems to be spontaneous, the consequences of such policy or its absence cannot but unpredictable.

- The crisis has only started, and economic situation in the country will only be getting worse. What can Belarusan authorities do to minimize the consequences of the crisis?

- Unless you admit to yourself that you are ill, would you be seriously worried about the treatment? Belarusan authorities have implicit faith in their economic course and are firmly convinced that the social and economic problems have exclusively resulted from the world and Russian economic crises, so they won’t take any radical decisions to change the course and conduct economic liberalization. The authorities will reduce everything to the traditional search for variants as to how we can survive it, i.e. borrow money from Russia, IMF, or, if it becomes unbearable, print a certain amount of money that has no basis beneath it. And such minimization of the crisis’ consequences will inevitably result in their maximization for the workers and for the whole population.

- Worsening of social and economic situation in Belarus will cause the growth of social protests that won’t result in social explosion. Are the workers ready to fight for their rights or their indignation won’t go beyond the kitchen?

- For now we can only talk about negative tendencies caused by the inadequate reaction of the authorities to the critical social and economic crisis that is seriously worsening the general state of workers. This process is neglected; however, it is also true that it is too early to say that situation went beyond control and that social protests are ripening in Belarus.

Probably, no sensible person would like to lead the situation to such dramatic consequences. We will hope and believe that it will be true and that critical mass of those, who want changes (and according to my observations this mass is being formed very quickly especially among the country’s political elite) will make the authorities go from declarations to elaboration of a full-scale reformation strategy. Otherwise anything can happen.