Andrei Yahorau: Do you really think that Yanukovich will get hit in the face?

Viktor Yanukovich has to balance between the supporters and the opponents of the Eurointegration. He tries to talk Russia into growing reliant, and get more from the EU.

Still, before the presidential elections he has to try not to obtain serious opponents, avoid serious reforms and look strong for everyone.

However, it seems that he fails to play this line.

Viktor Yanukovich has already stated that he will attend the EaP Summit in Vilnius on November 28-29 despite the decision to stop the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU. His decision displeased the official Moscow.

Why does the Ukraine’s ruling authorities can’t choose between the EU and the Customs Union? Will Russia manage to absorb Ukraine? How will closer Ukraine-Russia relations influence Belarus?

Andrei Yahorau, the director of the Centre for European Transformation, commented upon the situation to the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- For many “frozen” Association Agreement with the EU came as a shock. Before Yanukovich has secretly visited Moscow it was hardly imaginable that the Ukrainian authorities would win the situation back. Why did Yanukovich change his decision after the meeting with Putin?

- The success of the Agreement all the time has been hanging by a threat due to both inner political and foreign policy reasons: Timoshenko’s detention, following diplomatic negotiations with the EU and unproductive Cox-Kwasniewski mission… Russia only added more serious arguments, which influenced the decision of the Ukrainian government.

- Ukrainian experts assume that by asking for compensation for the economic risks with Moscow, Kiev acted pragmatically. If EUmakes concessions to the Ukrainian authorities, the Association Agreement can be signed at the EaP Summit. Can we consider it a mere bargaining then?

- In our case counting of short-term benefits and losses prevails over the long-term country’s development prospective. After the decision to freeze the Association Agreement taken in the Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers the EU can’t but declare that the doors to sign the agreement are still open. If the EU lifts demands to release Timoshenko now, it would be very weird, undue and illogical.

Of course, the actions of the Ukrainian government and president can’t be reduced to bargaining, though certain part of bargaining is present there. Yanukovich has to balance between the inland pressure from the supporters and the opponents of the Eurointegration, attempts to talk Russia into growing reliant, and get more from the EU, trying not to obtain serious opponents before the presidential elections, avoid serious reforms and look strong for everyone. However, it seems that he fails to play this line.

- Is there any chance to sign the agreement within the next year?

- Yes, there is such chance. EU will sign the Association Agreement as soon as Ukraine is ready for it.

- Why does Yanukovich want to infuriate Europeans by attending the Vilnius Summit after the decision to freeze the Association Agreement?

- Ukraine doesn’t break ties with the EU and doesn’t leave the EaP. It is but logical that Yanukovich is going. Do you really think that he will get hit in the face?

- The refusal to associate with the EU made the whole Ukraine burn with indignation. Why people’s reaction to the authorities’ decision was so tough?

- Pro-European sentiments are strong in Ukraine. According to some opinion polls, up to 58 per cent of population support Ukraine-EU integration. Besides, the Ukrainian government has supported every European initiative, and suddenly reversed its policy. People are disappointed, and take to the streets in demonstrations, still remembering the Orange revolution.

- What consequences do hesitations between EU and Customs Union have for Ukraine’s European prospective and Ukrainian government?

- It brings no good; it only postpones necessary reforms and increases alternative costs.

- What influence will Ukraine’s refusal have on Belarus?

- It will be of bad influence. It will diminish pro-European sentiments, increase authoritarian trends in the region and narrow the area for geopolitical maneuver that our country has. After sorting things out with Ukraine, Russia will have more opportunities to exert pressure on Belarus.

- Does it mean that Belarus will find itself in greater dependence from Russia and even be on sufferance from it? As we know, Moscow will have to pay Ukraine for its geopolitical loyalty now.

- Russia can’t at all support Ukraine; the situation when Ukraine is dependent on the Russian market and its energy resources is temporary; the whole state of things is rather symbolic. With the demonstrative loyalty to Ukraine and Armenia, Russia acquires more opportunities to exert pressure on Belarus. However, to sort things out with the only ally is one thing, and to teach good manners a “black sheep” in an obedient herd of sheep is another thing.