Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka will never engage in the Russia-Ukraine war on his own

photo www.kavkaz-uzel.ru

Even voting at the UN Security Council didn’t stop the attempts of the Belarusan regime to be neutral or act on two fronts.

Russia is pulling its troops to the Ukrainian border. The possibility of the full-scale invasion of the Russian army into the Ukrainian territory is seriously discussed in the world.

The danger of Belarus’ involvement into the Russia-Ukraine war has been increasing: according to the unverified information, Russian military equipment is arriving to Belarus. According to the data provided by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, on August 2 a train with self-propelled mortar installations came to Gomel from Russia, and a day before that a photo and video with military equipment in the neighborhood of Gomel appeared in the social networks.

Does the fact that military equipment is relocated mean that Kremlin is ready to bring “peacemaking” troops to Ukraine? Is the official Minsk ready to become an accomplice to the full-scale invasion at the territory of the neighboring country? Does the membership in the CSTO guarantee peace in Belarus or rather enhances risks of being dragged into military conflicts?

These and other questions EuroBelarus Information Servicediscussed with Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”.

- Is relocation of the military equipment from Russia to Gomel connected with the emersion of 34 military armored units with peacemaking symbols at the border with Chernigov region?

- I don’t know how reliable is the information about the relocation of the Russian military equipment at the Belarusan territory. However, if Russian command or Putin decide to use Belarusan territory for threats and direct military operation in Ukraine, there is no need to ask puppet Belarusan regime about it. Belarus is tied with obligations, military agreements with Russia and basically has no possibilities to refuse to cooperate with Russia in the military sphere.

- Is Russia ready to introduce “peacemaking” troops into Ukraine, despite the fact that UN didn’t issue corresponding sanctions?

- I really doubt that – the situation in Russia is too unfavorable for that. This step is too desperate; it is nearly a suicide for Putin. It is not only because US recognizes Ukraine as a military ally without mandatory membership in NATO, and not only because a number of NATO Special Forces are ready to enter Ukraine; it is because neither Russian society, nor economy and Russian army are prepared for full-scale fighting, for a full-scale war.

- In this case Belarus is a place of arms for striking Ukraine from the rear. Did Lukashenka agreed to become an accomplice to the Russian aggression?

- Let us neither succumb to euphoria nor to panic. After Poroshenko called Lukashenka asking for a place to hold trilateral consultations on Ukraine, immediately the talks about mediating and peacemaking mission of Lukashenka followed. So there is no need to panic and see Lukashenka as an idiot who can engage in the Russia-Ukraine war on his own.

 I have already said that if Putin decides to use Belarusan territory as a place of arms for invasion into Ukraine, there is no need to ask Lukashenka’s permission for that. However, if Russia doesn’t act without asking, Lukashenka will never drag himself into the war – it would be a suicide for him.

Only Russian society it its military hysteria still believes that Russian interests in Ukraine are just. Only Russian media speak about some successes of the gunmen at the east of Ukraine. But Lukashenka certainly has more or less accurate information, which says the following: anti-terror operation in Ukraine is developing slowly, but successfully and purposefully. With each new day Ukrainian army is getting more prepared to opposing the full-scale aggression. Lukashenka will never agree to have such enemy at the east of Belarus on his own; the enemy, which has the whole world as its allies.

- Is the presence of Russian military equipment in Gomel legitimate?

- Partially Russian army has never left Belarus – for that purpose a corresponding contractual basis was formed. Mostly Russian army is lawfully present in Belarus.

And whether the contractual basis corresponds to the Belarus’ national interests is another question. Russian army can use airfields and be present at the Belarusan territory – the agreements that the Belarusan regime has to sign in exchange for Russia’s economic preferences provide for everything. Enslaving agreements is a fee Belarus has to pay for economic preferences in the military sphere.

- Moscow is interested in dragging Belarus deeper in Russia’s sphere of military and political influence, and CSTO is one of the mechanisms. Kremlin is ready to pay any price for it. Is Minsk ready to pay any price to become a military appendage to Russia?

- Let me specify some moments: Belarus is getting dragged into Russia’s strategic plans, but I don’t see Kremlin’s serious intentions to drag our country into this war, though Belarus has almost no possibilities to withstand these plans.

As to the political union, Russia is more persistent with that. Despite all Lukashenka’s declarations and assurances, at the UN Security Council Belarus voted against the resolution, which condemns Russian intervention into Ukraine. However, even this voting didn’t prevent Lukashenka from being neutral or acting on two fronts.

- Even now it is evident that in the future the issue about the presence of Russian military bases at the Belarusan territory and about Belarus’ membership in CSTO will be actual. Does Belarus’ membership in the CSTO guarantee from potential military intervention, or, vice versa, drags our country deeper in the abyss of Russian expansionist plans?

- If the regime changes, the issue of membership in CSTO will be raised immediately after. However, we should understand that this process in connected to lots of difficulties. Even if the agreements were signed covertly; when the current authorities are displaced it would be very difficult to break military and strategic ties with Russia. Even Ukraine hasn’t yet broken all its agreements with Russia.

CSTO doesn’t guarantee peace for all its members, and the aggravated situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh exemplifies that. Clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia, economic wars between countries at the post-Soviet area show that neither CSTO nor CIS, Customs Union, “Union State”, or other forms of integration fulfill their functions.