Uladzimir Matskevich: The most painless variant to end the war for Russia is to remove Putin

If Russia doesn’t end the war, the world community will have to stop it, which will lead to the break-up of Russia into several parts and its complete demilitarization.

Russia has lost all the wars it has been leading this year: hot war with Ukraine, intervention into Ukraine, Crime’s occupation, subversive war in Donbas; geopolitical war with the “West” and NATO for restoration of imperia and bipolarity in the world; internal war in the post-Soviet region for the preservation of control over the dispersing states; information and conscientious wars. These conclusions Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, has drawn in the article “Russia lost the war”.

Many people cannot agree with these conclusions: there is fire and explosions at Donbas, and people are still dying. If the war is lost, why isn’t it over?

“EuroBelarus” Information Service asked Uladzimir Matskevich to “decode” his conclusions.

- My conclusion is based on the analysis and decomposition of the hybrid war that Russia is leading in Ukraine.

Russia didn’t declare and abstains from admitting the war at all levels. It presents the war in Ukraine as a civil war, when Ukrainians are fighting with Ukrainians, or as a global war of Russia against the US, Europe, NATO, and the West in general.

By taking this stance Russia tied itself hand and foot: it cannot escalate the conflict as to do it, Russia will have to declare a war; while continuing the war in the way it is now is a prolonged torture for the population that lives at the occupied territories of Lugansk and Donetsk regions.

This dilemma Russia is facing proves that Russia has lost the war.

However, the fact that the war is lost doesn’t mean that the war is over. It should be noted that not each war among the five ones that I mentioned (hot war with Ukraine, intervention into Ukraine, Crime’s occupation, subversive war in Donbas; geopolitical war with the “West” and NATO for restoration of imperia and bipolarity in the world; internal war in the post-Soviet region for the preservation of control over the dispersing states; information and conscientious wars) can be ended at all. Actually, only one of them can be over: a heated war in Ukraine, which requires Russia to clear off Ukraine’s territory.

When we talk about the end of the war, we should have a clear idea as to what it means: capitulation, sign of peace (and that presupposes change of borders, which is unnecessary in the 21^st century).

If Russia doesn’t stop, it will no longer be a heated war between Ukraine and Russia but a war at the post-Soviet area, a war of the postcolonial era, when it is the symbolic control over the seized territory, not the territory itself that matters. But it this case Russia’s defeat will be even more shattering.

That is why Russia should withdraw its troops from Donbas, return the captured territories of Lugansk and Donetsk regions to Ukraine, and also Crimea; otherwise it will be ruining the relations between the two countries for many years, such as it happened with Transdniestria in Moldova, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.

However, there is one more problem, namely the reaction of the Crimean population to becoming subject to Ukraine again. That is why we have one more variant, where Crimea becomes an independent state.

What does the end of the global, or cold war mean? The end of the war will lead to the break-up of Russia into several parts and its complete demilitarization. The most painless variant to end the war for Russia is to remove Putin, admit the mistakes and return to the initial condition – a multipolar world.

To end the neocolonial war will be even more difficult for Russia, as even divided Russia will still be trying to control the post-Soviet area and we can’t do anything about that.

As to the information and conscientious wars, they cannot end – these are civilization wars. They can last for decades until they are no longer important and actual.

We can’t consider heated war separately from all the other wars; they are closely related.

- When will the heated war between Russia and Ukraine end?

- All depends on reasonableness and conscience of those who started the war in Ukraine. It can be stopped today, by evacuating all Russian militants and citizens from Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Only after that sanctions against Russia can be stopped. If Russia doesn’t stop the war it only means that Russian authorities no longer have neither conscience nor reasonableness. In this case the world community will have to stop the war and decide the Russia’s fate.

- Sergei Lavrov has basically admitted that Russia doesn’t need Lugansk and Donetsk regions and that Russia wants to regulate the conflict at Donbas as soon as possible. What does it mean?

- It is a desire to put a good face on things. There are no such notions as “DPR” and “LPR” and we should be removed from the diplomatic lexicon; otherwise, we wouldn’t be able to agree.

The main problems are solved diplomatically. Ukraine doesn’t need a war; that is why it announced truce, it doesn’t escalate the conflict and doesn’t provoke the fighters for warfare. Poroshenko’s administration introduced moratorium on open war. The ball is on Putin’s side, while the war is led at the diplomatic field.

- How will Kremlin act – abandon the war or continue it?

- I can add to what Merkel was saying when she characterized Putin’s behaviour: his steps, actions, and words cannot be explained rationally. That is why I can’t say what Russia will do next. I can only say what would be sensible for Russia to do: to withdraw troops and Russian citizens from Donbas, by this ending the war.