Andrei Yahorau: Russia’s weakening gives chances for countries of our region to escape unwanted care

In 2015 Belarus will try to restore its relations with the EU and get access to loans and EU financial instruments on its own terms.

Trying to dictate its own rules to the whole world, Russia is swiftly losing its positions. The war with Ukraine caused an economic crisis that might turn into serious inner political problems. At the same time it has already seriously influenced the geopolitical situation in the region.

What development of this situation Belarus is to await? And in what format Belarus-Russia cooperation will be developing? What are the perspectives of the Eastern Partnership? What is Belarus to expect?

Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation, shared his viewpoint with the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- How will relations between the EU and the post-Soviet countries be developing in 2015?

- As to the EU’s eastern neighbors, no cardinal change will happen there. The EU will be basing its foreign policy on the principles of some conditional approach (more for more) and prioritize the countries that follow democratic reforms and get closer with the EU. Difference between the countries in the Eastern Partnership will be intensified. A bilateral agenda will start domineering in relations of all countries with the EU, while the value of the Eastern Partnership as a regional initiative will decline. Unless Russia stops its aggression against Ukraine, EU-Russia relations will remain the same, and no tougher sanctions will be applied.

Establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union as of January 1, 2015 doesn’t change anything for the region. The EEU is turning into a fiction, which means that it won’t demand adjustment of foreign political course from the EU.

- Will the Russia’s economic weakening lead to the increased love of freedom among the former Soviet States?

- Russia’s economic weakening will influence the possibilities of its foreign policy; it will have less money to buy loyalty of its neighbors with economic subsidies and cheap loans, less money to support pro-Russian forces in the region, bribing the elites, for attempts of destabilization of the situation and other habitual instruments of pressure on the neighbors. Besides, because of economic difficulties and decrease of the standard of life Russia’s appeal as a regional center will decrease, and its difference from the EU, which is obvious even now, will become even more obvious. However, it doesn’t mean that Russia will be excluded from the regional game for influence: Russian military presence, Russian media propaganda, dependence on huge Russian market, and ties won’t disappear anywhere. Russia’s weakening gives the countries of our region a chance to escape its obtrusive “care”; but to use it, we should have the wish to do so. Russia will be hindering Georgia and Moldova less, and this stance will help these countries in realization of the reforms; however, nothing will change for those who don’t want changes.

- What perspectives are awaiting Eastern Partnership in 2015? Is there any hope to reform its program and actualize it?

- In 2015 the format of the Eastern Partnership won’t change, while actuality and importance of this program are likely to decrease. The biggest positive effect of the Eastern Partnership would be a symbolic transfer of EU eastern neighbors from inexperienced zone of “Russia’s influence” and “post-Soviet countries” to a special region of partner relations with the EU. Now, without the answer to the existing crisis of the initiative with its amorphous existence all the positive effects might be spent very quickly.

- Russia’s economic weakening led to the growth of Lukashenka’s pro-Western rhetoric. Is there a chance that lack of finance might turn Belarus towards Europe or at least balance the geopolitical preferences of the country?

- Lukashenka started the course to closer ties with Europe even before the Russia’s economic weakening; however, Russia crisis has intensified this tendency. In 2015 Belarus will be trying to restore relations with the EU and get access to loans and EU’s financial instruments, though on its own terms: with EU’s refusing to cooperate on conditions that human rights situation is changed in Belarus. EU will hardly agree on that and will demand minimal guarantees such as release of political prisoners and bigger freedom of the election process. But it is Belarusan regime that can’t agree to these terms; so the level of cooperation with the EU won’t exceed the frames of the diplomatic format. As to the concrete decisions, unless something extraordinary happens, in 2015 an agreement on simplification of the visa regime with the EU will be signed and the cost of visas will be reduced to 35 euros.

- Let give special attention to the Russia-Ukraine war. Experts are forecasting the increase of problems inside Russia. Will inner problems make Russia reject its claims on Ukraine?

- Russia will be striving to save Ukraine within its influence and will keep on supporting separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk. Inner problems will make such policy more difficult for Russia, but won’t be able to stop it. Moreover, in the light of the information war Russia seems to be leading an unequal war with the West. And that what its inner economic difficulties can be explained with. Such twisted logic can lead us to the conclusion that Putin might even benefit from the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.