Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarusan regime can ensure any result at the “election”

It is unclear whether the Belarusan government has an action plan to step out of the crisis; so the only thing left for Belarusans is to stay confused and pop-eyed.

The start of the president campaign 2015 is weird.

On New Year’s eve a currency exchange market broke out, which resulted in introduction of a 30-percent levy on purchasing foreign currency, and experts are at a loss as to what happened. Lukashenka found whom to blame and replaced the economic part of the government. However, devaluation of the Belarusan ruble continues, no currency emerged in banks, and no one knows what algorithm the new government is following.

Now the authorities no longer promise paradise for Belarusans and the promises about the average salary of one thousand US dollars dunk into oblivion.

In the talk with “EuroBelarus” Information Service Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus” reflects upon strange economic policy and presidential campaign 2015.

- Since the end of the last year economic anarchy is reigning in Belarus. It all began with the currency crisis that basically is still lasting. After an unclear 30-percent devaluation the authorities went to a single rate of exchange, but revived black currency market. Why does every economic decision only cause new problems?

- This situation is very controversial. On the one hand, devaluation of the Belarusan ruble was due long time ago, but was artificially restricted. After introduction of sanctions against Russia, the part of Belarusan export to Russia started to grow; however, due to the fall of the Russian ruble export to Russia has became unprofitable or even loss-making.

It has been happening for almost six months, and, finally, the decision to balance the exchange rates of Russian and Belarusan rubles was made. And as always, the realization was dull. The difference between the purchase and the selling prices with a glance to a 30-percent levy was catastrophic, and the Black market wasn’t ready even for that. Later on it was revealed that no one want’s to take responsibility for the introduction of the levy, and it is absolutely unclear where this money went.

However, our country controls only the finances of individuals and judicial persons, while budget funds are nontransparent at all. Everything as usual: the state punishes for minor thefts, shamelessly making grand larcenies.

- The Trade Ministry got unlimited rights and is blatantly using them: shops are being closed in lots on very mysterious grounds. These decisions of the authorities stop business that doesn’t know the rules of the game. What is happening?

- In the situation when there is no reliable information it is easy to suggest that redistribution of property is on the way. Control of the trade ventures that are being closed selectively had started earlier than the devaluation, so that after devaluation the debts of the ventures was artificially increased, while their book cost might be understated. It is quite normal expropriation that is used by all bandit regimes when the authorities can’t be controlled.

- The ruble has already devalued by 40 per cent; however, the government froze the prices for the consumer goods for uncertain term. The desire to keep people’s sympathies is clear – presidential campaign will soon start. However, the impression is that the government doesn’t know what to do in this situation.

- The government might have several scenarios and different courses of action. But how free are the government and the National Bank in their choice of decisions? Russia is dictating its terms through the Customs Union, in which Belarus is stuck despite its national interests. It might even turn out that the follies we went through in December can be explained by Russia’s objection to devaluation of the Belarusan ruble, as with the low exchange rate of the Russian ruble Belarusan export was also very cheap; beneficial for Russia, but loss-making for Belarus. That is why the regime fulfilled the new-year devaluation in this weird way, imitating force majeure so that not to violate the Russian claims directly.

Lukashenka’s regime is cunning and inventive; sometimes it creates such steps and tricks that any politician and state persons who act within the law would never even think of. However, in our country nobody cares about the law.

And that is why we cannot really know whether the government has an action plan or it doesn’t. Even if it has, no one would dare to voice it. After its realization the president would say “Well sorry, but this is how it worked!” So we only have to stay confused and pop-eyed. What is funny, it is not only us, Belarusan citizens and business entities, who find ourselves in this situation, but also Kremlin and Europe.

- Earlier each presidential campaign started with promises of a paradise. Presidential campaign 2015 is totally different from the former ones – the deterioration of the economy and worsening of Belarusans lives. However, Lukashenka is certain in his “elegant victory”. What is this certainty based on?

- Now it is enough to harp on about stability, Ukraine, Russia, and “elegant victory” will be ensured by the political technologies of the third generation that are safe. Why no one wants to analyze these technologies is a different story, although I can break it down. Even without analysis any sensible person understands that the regime is able to ensure any result at the “election”, without understanding what and how, but the conclusions are clear as day. Only the blind such as our opposition and its European and American “advisers” do not want to reckon with the obviousness. But they have their own interest, and that interest has nothing to do with our national interests.

- Each presidential campaign had a certain slogan: in 2006 – to bring the average salary to 500 dollars, in 2010 – to 1000 dollars. What slogan will become title in 2015, if the salaries of Belarusans fell below 500 dollars?

- I don’t want and I won’t be looking into this legalized electoral deceit. What matters is not slogan numbers, but the gradient of change. And this gradient is positive, with all the troubles, crises and falls, the standard of living is growing, even though slowly. And it is not important whether it is 500$ or 1000$, as it isn’t arithmetic; it is ideology and political marketing.