Uladzimir Matskevich: The defeated party in Minsk negotiations of “Normandy Four” is still Russia

cartoon by Yury Zhuravel, vitki.org

The behavior of the Belarusan leader indirectly witnesses that Putin’s time is coming to an end and Russia is coming off second-best.

It has been two days since the announcement of ceasefire in Donbas. There is no peace here; however, truce is being kept with great difficulty.

No one had any illusions about the Minsk meeting of the “Normandy Four” would bring peace to Ukraine. However, Kremlin’s inability to come to an agreement and its unwillingness to control the implementation of Minsk agreements proved Russia’s weakness at the international arena. All the responsibility for the disruption of Minsk negotiations is put on Kremlin, which means diplomatic and historical catastrophe for Russia.

By request of “EuroBelarus” Information Service Minsk negotiations of the “Normandy four” are analyzed by Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”.

- What is the sense of Minsk negotiations of the “Normandy four”? It seems that all parties but for Russia lost in result.

- I would say that it is just the opposite: the defeated party in Minsk negotiations of “Normandy Four” is still Russia. And I will enumerate what Russia’s defeat consists of.

For the whole year Russia refused to admit being a party to the conflict in Ukraine. However, according to the results of Minsk negotiations Moscow still admits it, which is seen in the phrase about withdrawal of foreign army from the Ukrainian territory – there are no other army of foreign states at the east of Ukraine but for Ukraine. Of course, a lot of foreign citizens war as volunteers or hirelings from both sides; but only Russian army is present as a foreign army.

Secondly, after the adoption of the “Normandy Four” documents Putin stated that he is not going to fulfill Minsk agreements leaving them for a good will of illegal formations in Donbas, by this admitting that he is not going to fulfill Minsk agreements and doesn’t control illegal formations.

In terms of logic and diplomatic content, by taking part in the war but without admitting it Putin confirms that Russia can neither control its army in Donbas nor the “allies”.

In the course of the recent year it was argued that Ukrainian state is weak and unable to oppose aggression. Now the situation has cardinally changed: Russian state has weakened, as it can’t meet the obligations taken upon itself. The fact of being weak puts Russia is very bas situation at the international arena.

From those who signed the Budapest Memorandum and took upon themselves the responsibility of guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity only Russia took part in Minsk negotiations. And Russia relieves itself from observation of the Budapest Memorandum and from responsibility for the international agreements related to withdrawal of nuclear weapon, which means that the system of international security is denounced and a new system should be built instead, where Russia will not take the leading position anymore. Russia is losing the status of the world power. These are the diplomatic results of the Minsk meeting.

Speaking about the military aspect of the “Normandy Four” results, we need to understand that only one day of truce is over. There were almost no hopes for implementation of military agreements since the beginning.

Ukraine’s President stated that in case of truce’s violation Ukraine would introduce martial law at the territory of the whole country. Despite Russia’s denial of participation in the war, by introducing martial law Ukraine states the war, opening way to American military aid and providing itself with political and diplomatic help of Europe, thus considerably enhancing Ukraine’s military advantage.

With all the diplomatic and military factors we can fearlessly say that it is Russia that lost in this situation.

- Why will the agreements of the “Normandy Four” bring no peace to Ukraine?

- Doubts that the negotiations in Minsk will be followed by peace are related with Kremlin’s inability to come to an agreement and its unwillingness to control the implementation of Minsk agreements. Yet again we hear assurances that combined armed formations are independent, while Kremlin has no influence on them.

There are also big doubts in reaching truce and peace diplomatically; the chances that the situation will be settled by means of war. After the Minsk meeting both Holland and Poroshenko stated that unless peaceful agreements are observed the only way to reach peace would be force.

- The alleged peace established on February 15 in Donbas in result of negotiations of the “Normandy Four” has been broken at the very first day: the gunmen announced Debaltseve to be their territory and do whatever they want there. Why do negotiations fail to be observed, even though they were signed at such high level?

- The whole world realizes that Russia is absolutely unable to come to an agreement and Russian authorities absolutely don’t fit in the modern world. All the responsibility for the disruption of Minsk negotiations is put on Kremlin, which means diplomatic and historical catastrophe for Russia. Russia will no longer be able to play the role given to her as an assignee of the USSR.

- Kremlin allegedly demands absolute implementation of Minsk agreements, and gunmen play in “independence”, which is an approved scheme for violating any agreements used not for the first time. With this easy trick the war can last forever, and Putin easily avoids the responsibility of fulfilling the responsibilities he took upon himself. However, how can Kremlin still be made paying its bills?

- There are no mechanisms that can make Russia fulfill the responsibilities it took upon itself. Russia managed to destroy the system of world security. After the Russia-Ukraine war we will have to build it all anew.

Russia’s inability to come to an agreement doesn’t allow it put a question about paying contributions to Ukraine, about the material responsibility for destructions in Donbas. However, no one took away responsibility from Russia, and question about Crimea will sooner or later be raised.

The main thing today is to stop the bloodshed in Donbas.

- European and even the world security system were destroyed. Does it mean that the hands of the aggressor are unleashed?

- Today we can’t say that the world is ready to oppose Russia’s aggression. After the year of war Europe and the world got consolidated. Since last February and up until this winter Europe wasn’t ready to repulse. However, Europe has braced up, US Congress took very tough stance against Russia: the behaviour of the bandit state is becoming unacceptable.

- When commanding to stop fire to the Ukrainian army Poroshenko said: “Having tuned one cheek, we won’t turn the other. God forbid me”. We can account it for the tension that the Ukraine President was experiencing throughout the last year. But is all about tension?

- This phrase concludes all the tragedy of the situation in which Ukraine and President Poroshenko found themselves. We should recollect the tragic state of Ukraine when Poroshenko took office: weak economy, inner political difficulties. It took several months of hard labor to turn Ukrainian army in more or less efficient in order to unite a nation. We should give him his due: Poroshenko President has coped with a very complicated situation and Ukraine’s history will remember him this way.

Now Poroshenko feels ready for decisive actions. Today Ukraine is no longer the country it used to be a year ago. The world recognizes Ukraine as a recognized authoritarian state that has effective army with consolidated nation that is able to oppose any aggression. That is why we (including Russia) should treat Poroshenko’s words very seriously. Russia is not ready to a full-scale war; it is interested in a long-term smouldering conflict that constantly weakens Ukraine. However, Kremlin should understand that this strategy doesn’t work.

These words are a direct signal to Putin, who still holds power thanks to war. The war distracts the attention of the Russian society from problems that accumulate inside the country. If we will manage to finish the war – peacefully of fully destroying military formations and Russian army – Kremlin and Putin will be the subject that led Russia to defeat and answer for it.

The evidence of Putin’s weakness is a position of Belarusan president who informally supports Ukraine more than Russia. Being a part of the “Union State” and Moscow’s ally, heading Belarus a lot thanks to Putin and Russia Lukashenka still supports Ukraine in this conflict, which proves that Lukashenka understands that Putin’s time is coming to an end, and Russia is losing.