Friday 29 March 2024 | 14:54

Andrei Yahorau: Europeans are probing how the official Minsk understands geopolitical context

26.02.2015  |  Politics   |  Aliaksei Jurych, EuroBelarus,  
Andrei Yahorau: Europeans are probing how the official Minsk understands geopolitical context

Belarus is now going through the pilgrimage of European officials. What are its aims and what these visits can lead to?

On February 19 the Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics visited Minsk. Yesterday Andrea Rigoni, rapporteur of the PACE's Committee on Political Affairs and Democracy started its visit to Minsk. In the next few days Belarus will also welcome Sandra Kalniete, vice-chairman of the European Parliament for the European People's Party.

On February 24 with the official visit to Minsk came Helga Schmid, deputy secretary general of the European External Action Service together with Gunnar Wiegand, director for Russia, Eastern Partnership, Central Asia, Regional Cooperation and the OSCE at the European External Action Service. On February 24 they met with the representatives of the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, “Viasna” Human Rights Center, the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, a prisoner rights group called Platform Innovation, the Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ), and the Assembly of Pro-Democratic Non-Governmental Organizations.

The reasons of the European pilgrimage and its consequences for Belarus-Europe relations in the interview with “EuroBelarus” Information Service explains Andrei Yahorau, co-chair of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum, the Director of the Center for European Transformation.

- What events did lead to the invasion of European officials to Minsk? Belarusan society didn’t see and didn’t hear any signals of the official Minsk that demonstrated the readiness of the authorities to the European turn, did it?

- From my point of view, restoration of relations between Belarus and the EU has its internal logic: it has been happening since the end of 2014, but started even earlier, and these processes are now being actualized.

Besides, Belarus’ position on Ukraine also affects the positive dynamic of bilateral relations’ restoration.

Restoration of relations between Belarus and the EU is linked to the inner logic of relations and the forthcoming president election. Belarusan authorities are passing a test re the perspective of the relations’ development after the presidential campaign. Europeans are probing how the official Minsk understands geopolitical context and are trying out what can be expected in relations with Belarus before and after the presidential campaign.

- The relations between Belarus and the EU are clearer now than they used to be, noted Lukashenka at the meeting with Shmid. What trends in Belarus-Europe relations have begun to show now, on the threshold of the presidential campaign?

- Belarus and the EU enter the final stage of negotiations on the “European Dialogue on Modernization with Belarus” program. The parties have already discussed the problems of mutual trade, investments, WTO; on March 9 the final round of negotiations will start, in the course of which problems of court reform, electoral legislation, and human rights – now these are the most difficult problems in the bilateral relations.

In the future, if the Belarusan regime will decide to release the political prisoners, the results of negotiations might be embodied in EU’s real actions, as according to the EU’s representatives these issues are not taken away from the agenda.

- Lukashenka is imposing his peacemaking to the EU, and is making it really confidently. “Belarus is one of the countries that could play an important part in building up a safe Europe,” – the Belarusan leader marked. Will the Belarusan peacemaking open a window to Europe?

- Largely neither the real situation in Belarus nor the geopolitical weight allows Belarus to play role in providing safety for whoever it might be. Belarus is Moscow’s satellite, which makes it unable to be an element of global safety.

Europeans need Belarus to be neutral in relation to Ukraine; it is important that Belarus supports territorial unity and its neighbor’s sovereignty, which the official Minsk does, though very inconsistently. Lukashenka is using the fact that Belarus has become a negotiation area on settling the Ukrainian crisis, and he makes it very successfully, keeping to a line about Belarus’ need for ensuring the country’s sovereignty. Belarus feels the threat from Russia; and to avert it closer ties with the EU are needed.

And Europe accepts that, even though the official Minsk demonstrates no progress in fulfilling its obligations.

- At the meeting with Shmid Lukashenka talked about the cooperation within the formula “from Lisbon to Vladivostok”. Is Minsk trying to promote itself as a mediator between the EU and the EEU?

- Not only Lukashenka, but also some Russian diplomats are using this formula. However, this is impossible due to two reasons. First, complete incompatibility of the two integration initiatives that are being built on completely different principles; secondly, the role of Minsk in the EEU doesn’t provide for being a mediator; no one gave it the required authority. Belarusan authorities have neither weight, nor formal mandate for the role of a negotiator, which turns the voiced idea into a fiction.

But it is possible to speculate on this, which Lukashenka is doing quite successfully.

- The official Minsk and personally Aliaksandr Lukashenka demonstrate huge interest to the “Eastern Partnership”, which had never happened before. Does Lukashenka really want to come to the summit in Riga that much?

- It is rather vice versa: the approach of the summit in Riga explains European pilgrimage.

Lukashenka isn’t dying to come to the summit in Riga, so he won’t makes any steps to release political prisoners. And Lukashenka’s participation doesn’t have a principal meaning.

Whereas pro-European rhetoric is often related to mere pragmatic interests: economic cooperation, investments, access to financial institutions, realization of bilateral programs.

Other news section «Politics»

Andrei Yahorau — Al Jazeera: “Lukashenko is irresponsible”
Andrei Yahorau — Al Jazeera: “Lukashenko is irresponsible”
He said Belarus would likely face economic tightening not only as a result of the coronavirus pandemic but also a Russian trade oil crisis that worsened this past winter.
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
The Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarusan media and the detention of journalists.
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
The Belarusan National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum issued a statement on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia.
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
On September 11, the inaugural „Vilnius Consultations“ conference was organized by Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis and Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
Poland and Germany were both initiators and drivers of a New Eastern policy linked to the Eastern neighborhood and Russia/Soviet Union.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Not only does the "Union State" undermine the establishment of civilized relations with Europe, but it hinders the possibility of normal relations between Belarus and Russia.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
The authorities are unable to prolong the social contract with the people: there is no way out of the social crisis.
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF welcomes the dialogue process in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group, the third round of which was held in Minsk on 3-4 April 2017.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan cities.
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
The EaP CSF Steering Committee issued a statement on repressions against civil society activists and journalists in Belarus, in view of the demonstrations planned on 25 March 2017.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
"Case of Zhadan" demonstrated that Belarus does not actually have a clear policy - neither domestic nor foreign.
Belarus
Belarus's Lukashenko alleges “fifth column” plot as unrest continues
Belarusan President Lukashenko said on Tuesday a “fifth column” was plotting to overthrow him with the help of foreign-backed fighters, days before a planned street protest in Minsk against a new tax.
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
The relationship between Russia and Belarus has never been an easy one.
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
The Belarusian regime is not able to pursue a truly multi-vector policy, and the EU cannot decide what it needs in the region on the whole and from Belarus in particular.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
But even under the circumstances the authorities have various ways out.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
But Lukashenka is afraid for his fate and position - he needs Belarus to be sovereign to fully exercise his power.
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
There should be no actual passport control for the Belarusians arriving in Russia within the framework of the existing Belarusian-Russian agreements.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
It is a process of normalization of Belarus-EU relations. Belarus just fulfils its international commitments.
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Political analyst emphasizes that Belarus is the first modern authoritarianism in the European space, a phenomenon not yet studied by anyone.
Gintautas Mažeikis: The relation of political field and arena in the framework of information war

In his report, philosopher Gintautas Mažeikis discusses several concepts that have been a part of the European social and philosophical thought for quite a time.

“It is our big joint work”

It is impossible to change life in cities just in three years (the timeline of the “Agenda 50” campaign implementation). But changing the structure of relationships in local communities is possible.

Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf

Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.

Mikhail Matskevich: How to create a local agenda and make it a problem solving tool

To achieve changes, you need to be interested in them and stop pinning all hopes on the state.