Uladzimir Matskevich: In 2015 Lukashenka is as close to legitimizing his regime as never before

The only way-out for the opposition is to ignore the elections, which is impossible due to inability of cooperation.

Presidential campaign is shifted to one month earlier – from 15 November to 11 October.

The official Minsk hardly managed to name the date of elections when the head of the Centre for Sociological and Political Research of the Belarusan State University Prof. David Rotman voiced the number of voters, who are ready to take part in the “elections” – 90%.

Meanwhile opposition has already produced seven potential presidential candidates: Alena Anisim, Siarhei Haidukevich, Siarhei Kaliakin, Tatsiana Karatkevich, Anatoly Liabedzka, Anatoly Liaukovich, and Yury Shulgan.

To the outsider it might look as if civilized preparation to the presidential elections is going on. But the trouble is that Belarus hasn’t seen elections in their traditional meaning for almost 20 years.

What hides the activity of both the authorities and the opposition? Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus “, answered the questions of the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- The head of the Centre for Sociological and Political Research of the Belarusan State University Prof. David Rotman voiced the number of voters, who are ready to take part in the “elections” – 90%. How realistic are these figures?

- The voiced results made sociologists laugh – it is absolutely unclear how Rotman got this figure. Final results were accompanied with absolutely unclear statements about “highly precise instruments”, whereas we are dealing with a regular social poll. Meanwhile David Rotman is famous as a professional sociologist. Judging by all, he was just included into a propaganda mechanism and is talking as a propagandist, not a sociologist.

- What part of population is really ready to come to the polling stations?

- I am not going to characterize electoral moods objectively. Neither independent sociologists nor I have an opportunity to conduct free and undisturbed sociological research that would be giving results that are close to reality. However, objectivity of independent social polls is doubtful, since people are guided by subjective reasons when answering the questions of the sociologists, and their answers cannot be always interpreted with certainty.

However, opinion polls can give numbers close to reality. We can wait for regular polls and monitorings of Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) or Sociological Laboratory “Novak” and compare the results with Rotman’s.

However, according to observations and trends that have arisen during the election campaigns of recent years, we can forecast attendance of not bigger than 50%. Thanks to administrative resource attendance might be increased; thanks to strikes, social conflicts or successful work of the opposition (which we cannot count at), attendance might be lowered.

- Belarusan authorities shifted the presidential campaign for a month earlier – from November 15 to October 11. Some people say that Lukashenka has merely left his opponents in unclear situation; others say that Belarusans won’t have time for elections in autumn – Russia will renew its military campaign in Ukraine, whereas Belarusan army will have to make its way to Kaliningrad. What is the intention of the reigning regime; should we try to resolve the riddle of this decision?

- Postponement of “elections” doesn’t have any principal meaning. Even if the authorities had some reasons for such decision, we can only guess. I find the version about the state’s continuous attempt to destroy the expectations of the opposition that has already prepared for participation in the campaign quite reasonable. The opposition has counted at having almost all autumn on hand, when vacations are over and agricultural season is over, but opposition destroyed all the plans with the wave of the hand.

- Both the authorities and the opposition make decisions related to the presidential campaign, even though the results of the elections are doomed. Parties nominate their candidates one after another; potential candidates drive around towns and villages to meet the electorate. However, all the actions won’t affect the result of the elections in any way. Who and why does need the imitation of a political process?

- Modern dictatorial regimes are trying to imitate normal civilized political life. That is why the elections are not cancelled; they are seemingly organized at the democratic basis. Any dictator trains his opponents or manipulates the opposition so that to reach the required results. Modern humanitarian political technologies make it possible for dictatorial regimes at such simulative elections to get guaranteed results and by this claim to international recognition.

International recognition of Lukashenka as the lawfully elected president is his goal, even though during almost 20 years the elections in Belarus are not recognized by the international community. Nevertheless, he is trying to achieve international recognition.

We should say that in 2015 he has all chances for that – Lukashenka is as close to legitimizing his regime as never before. Europe is ready to disregard all the violations if it sees at least minor progress towards democratic standards. European politicians and observers have hot desire to see this progress. Regime has no need to falsify these elections and go to some visible violations: the destroyed demoralized opposition that is unable to come to an agreement doesn’t present any threat for Lukashenka even if the elections are completely democratic.

But the habit to falsify and limit freedom of speech and freedom of assemblies didn’t disappear. Even if the ruling upper circles decide not to hinder electoral campaign, this decision might remain unvoiced and not be brought to the notice of the local administration. Thus, local administration will behave in correspondence with the habits it acquired at the former elections. So we cannot avoid violations. All factors demonstrate that these elections cannot be recognized as democratic and free.

The only real task of the opposition might be to seek non-recognition of these elections. Some opposition representatives are aware of that, but it isn’t enough: to work for non-recognition of elections cooperation is needed and today’s opposition is incapable of that. Contradictions between different opposition structures, counteractions of opposition candidates will create a vision of political competition and the authorities will get extra arguments for claiming that the elections took place in accordance with the international standards.

- What is the most sensible scenario for opposition in present-day situation?

- The most reasonable scenario is to ignore elections. Ignore by criticizing infrastructural inhibition of a normal democratic process: we have no freedom of speech; we have no freedom of assemblies, and no opportunity to form civil society and political organizations. We have numerous quasi-political organizations registered de jure; however, de facto there are no such organizations; these fictitious organizations provide “observers” and create a vision of common participation in political process. This is what should be emphasized: defiance of the “elections” and putting emphasis on the abnormal infrastructure of public activities.