Friday 29 March 2024 | 15:52

Political stability over values:EU’s decision to lift sanctions isn't about Belarus’ democratization

22.02.2016  |  Politics   |  Kamil Kłysiński, OSW,  
Political stability over values:EU’s decision to lift sanctions isn

Lift of sanctions will strengthen Minsk’s political position vis-à-vis Moscow and make it easier for Belarus to activate the programme of support from the IMF to stabilize the country’s finances.

On 15 February, the EU Council decided not to extend its visa and economic sanctions against 170 representatives of the Belarusian regime and three companies linked to the Belarusian government. At the same time, sanctions against four people suspected of involvement in the disappearance of President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s opponents in the years 1999-2000, and the embargo on sales of arms and military equipment to Belarus, were maintained. The sanctions were introduced in December 2010, in response to the brutal repression of the political opposition and civil society, but they were suspended in October 2015 in response to signs of liberalisation in Belarus. However over recent months, the situation in the areas of human rights and civil liberties has not undergone the expected improvement in any of the relevant issues.

The EU’s decision is not a reaction to any democratising actions by the Belarusian authorities, but is rather a political choice. Brussels has come to the conclusion that the policy of sanctions has not brought about the expected changes, and has actually weakened its political and economic position in Belarus vis-à-vis Russia. At the same time, the EU has welcomed Minsk’s balanced position in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and is beginning to appreciate the stability of Belarus, in contrast with the situation in Ukraine and the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The Council’s decision will strengthen Minsk’s political position vis-à-vis Moscow, and will also make it easier for Belarus to activate the programme of support from the International Monetary Fund to stabilise the country’s finances.

No expressions of political liberalisation

In October 2015 the EU Council decided to suspend the sanctions for a period of four months, i.e. until the end of February, in reaction to the release of all political prisoners and the peaceful conduct of the presidential elections held on 11 October last year. In deciding to suspend the sanctions until the end of this February, the EU was sending the Belarusian authorities a signal that it expected more action to liberalise domestic policy. However, there has been no improvement in the areas of respect for human rights and democratic principles in Belarus over the past few months. Despite refraining from stricter forms of repression, such as arrests and prison sentences, limiting its punishments to fines, and the forces of law and order not using violence to pacify the occasional demonstrations, the Belarusian regime has not rehabilitated its political prisoners, and has also blocked the registration of many social organisations, political parties and independent media, and threatened their representatives with imprisonment for their activities. Attention has been drawn to these and a number of other aspects in recent weeks in open letters to the EU from Belarusian human rights defenders and the leaders of major opposition parties. They stressed the need for the EU to develop a new ‘road map’ in its relations with Belarus, making the development of cooperation dependent on genuine liberalisation measures on the part of the regime. In a statement on 10 February, the UN’s special rapporteur for Belarus, Miklós Haraszti, also declared his scepticism about the situation in Belarus. In addition the final report (published on 28 January) by the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), regarding the monitoring of the presidential election in October 2015, clearly stated that both the voting and the counting had undergone a number of infringements, which meant they could not be considered free and democratic processes. In view of the above, the ODIHR recommended that the authorities of Belarus amend the country’s legislation in order to bring the electoral laws up to democratic standards.

The EU’s minimal policy towards Minsk

In the absence of any signs of political liberalisation in Belarus, the EU’s decision to abolish almost all its sanctions against the Belarusian regime is primarily politically motivated. Brussels has long made clear its appreciation of how Aliaksandr Lukashenka conducts a foreign policy autonomous from Russia, particularly regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The talks in Minsk on resolving the conflict in Ukraine, culminating in a series of agreements, and the maintenance of good relations with Kyiv have given Lukashenka space for a rapprochement with the EU. From the EU’s perspective, Belarus’s relative internal stability is crucial, all the more so in the context of Russia’s aggressive actions in Eastern Europe. In this situation, in Belarus’s relations with the West, the problem of the Belarusian regime violating principles of human rights and democracy has gradually begun to move into the background, and it has become much more important to establish dialogue with the Belarusian government. At the same time, a belief has been rising for many months among EU member states that sanctions are ineffective, and hence there is a need to move towards encouraging policy changes through cooperation. In addition, some EU countries are increasingly interested in developing economic relations with Belarus, as can clearly be seen in Germany and Austria; on 9 February, the latter opened an embassy in Minsk, and is working on organising a Belarusian-Austrian investment forum in Vienna.

A chance for Lukashenka

The decision to lift the sanctions clearly marks the start of another opening in relations with the EU, which is very beneficial for the Belarusian authorities (the previous phase of rapprochement between the EU and Belarus lasted from 2008 until the end of 2010, and ended with the Belarusian regime’s brutal assault on the opposition after the previous presidential elections). Aliaksandr Lukashenka has thus gained a significant gesture of support from the West, and most importantly, without having had to make any political changes which could have risked the stability of his authoritarian system of power. The EU has thus deprived itself of a basic instrument for putting pressure on Minsk, and it should therefore not expect any real improvement this year in the fields of observing human rights and democratic principles. The Belarusian regime will simply try to conduct a more limited policy of repression, while at the same time it will feign a desire to cooperate, including by announcing it will consider some of the ODIHR’S recommendations for changes in the electoral law.

For Lukashenka the undoubted advantage of resuming political dialogue with the EU is that it strengthens his position towards Russia, which is expecting greater loyalty from Minsk in foreign policy, as well as closer military cooperation, including on the issue of consent to locate a Russian fighter base near Bobruisk.

It is possible that the improvement of Belarus’s relationship with Brussels will also thaw relations between Minsk and Washington, the more so as the US generally takes the position of Brussels into account when making its decisions on Belarus, and the American (travel and financial) sanctions expire at the end of April.

The economic benefits will be no less important; the lifting of sanctions will allow Belarus to gain access to EU aid, and improve both its credit rating and its attractiveness to investors. However, most important for Minsk at present would be the highly likely return to talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $3 billion assistance program that will replenish the record-low foreign exchange reserves, and thus stabilise the country’s economic situation at least until the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for September this year.

Originally published at OSW

Other news section «Politics»

Andrei Yahorau — Al Jazeera: “Lukashenko is irresponsible”
Andrei Yahorau — Al Jazeera: “Lukashenko is irresponsible”
He said Belarus would likely face economic tightening not only as a result of the coronavirus pandemic but also a Russian trade oil crisis that worsened this past winter.
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
The Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarusan media and the detention of journalists.
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
The Belarusan National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum issued a statement on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia.
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
On September 11, the inaugural „Vilnius Consultations“ conference was organized by Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis and Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
Poland and Germany were both initiators and drivers of a New Eastern policy linked to the Eastern neighborhood and Russia/Soviet Union.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Not only does the "Union State" undermine the establishment of civilized relations with Europe, but it hinders the possibility of normal relations between Belarus and Russia.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
The authorities are unable to prolong the social contract with the people: there is no way out of the social crisis.
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF welcomes the dialogue process in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group, the third round of which was held in Minsk on 3-4 April 2017.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan cities.
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
The EaP CSF Steering Committee issued a statement on repressions against civil society activists and journalists in Belarus, in view of the demonstrations planned on 25 March 2017.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
"Case of Zhadan" demonstrated that Belarus does not actually have a clear policy - neither domestic nor foreign.
Belarus
Belarus's Lukashenko alleges “fifth column” plot as unrest continues
Belarusan President Lukashenko said on Tuesday a “fifth column” was plotting to overthrow him with the help of foreign-backed fighters, days before a planned street protest in Minsk against a new tax.
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
The relationship between Russia and Belarus has never been an easy one.
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
The Belarusian regime is not able to pursue a truly multi-vector policy, and the EU cannot decide what it needs in the region on the whole and from Belarus in particular.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
But even under the circumstances the authorities have various ways out.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
But Lukashenka is afraid for his fate and position - he needs Belarus to be sovereign to fully exercise his power.
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
There should be no actual passport control for the Belarusians arriving in Russia within the framework of the existing Belarusian-Russian agreements.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
It is a process of normalization of Belarus-EU relations. Belarus just fulfils its international commitments.
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Political analyst emphasizes that Belarus is the first modern authoritarianism in the European space, a phenomenon not yet studied by anyone.
Gintautas Mažeikis: The relation of political field and arena in the framework of information war

In his report, philosopher Gintautas Mažeikis discusses several concepts that have been a part of the European social and philosophical thought for quite a time.

“It is our big joint work”

It is impossible to change life in cities just in three years (the timeline of the “Agenda 50” campaign implementation). But changing the structure of relationships in local communities is possible.

Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf

Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.

Mikhail Matskevich: How to create a local agenda and make it a problem solving tool

To achieve changes, you need to be interested in them and stop pinning all hopes on the state.