BISS: Frozen Trends. Polling Prognosis for 2013

BISS presents the eights issue of the polling memorandum series based on the December's public opinion poll data of the Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS).

A stable public support for Alexander Lukashenka and a peak of “economic crisis feeling” of Belarusian citizens are the most important findings of the latest public opinion poll provided by IISEPS (from December 2012).

Two years after Lukashenka started his current term Belarusians are significantly more pessimistic. The number of those who said Belarus was on the right track in December 2012 represented 33.5% of respondents (compared to 55% in December 2010) and just 23% said the economic and social situation in Belarus will improve in the next years (compared to 30% in December 2010).

Despite the strong and wide-ranging public consensus on the economic crises, there are frozen trends on every main issue such as economics, politics and geopolitical orientation. Although only one third of the population consider Mr. Lukashenka as the right leader for the country, the major part of the population still has not found any political, personal or programmatic alternative. Therefore BISS suggests that the year 2013 will be the year of frozen trends. The main question remains open: who or what would be able to unify the interests of the majority of Belarusians divided to those who are not in declared opposition to the regime (about 35% of the adult population) and those who are in strong and long-term opposition (about 20%). Nevertheless, the need seems clear, as evidenced by the growing trust in independent media, trade unions and research centers.

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