Yaraslau Bekish: About climate during the heat

The country does not only bear material losses due to the abnormally high temperature; those who are meteodependent without any exaggeration risk their lives this summer.

The temperature records, drought, shortened working hours, the workshop shift on night schedule (almost siesta) - all this has become practically habitual in recent weeks.

Is it a regular pattern or a random occurrence? Should we expect something like this in the future? Yaraslau Bekish, the Coordinator of the ecological association “Green network” had an interview with a “EuroBelarus” Information Service correspondent.

-Unfortunately, today we can definitely state that the consequences of the global climate change have already affected Belarus and that they will only strengthen in the future, the only question is how critical they will be. The global tendency of temperature increase is obvious, in Belarus the current temperature is above normal by 1.1 -1.2 Celsius degree, and that is a lot. The temperature excess is not only due to the irregular heat wave we are having now, but also due to shorter periods of frost and freeze, higher temperatures in winter and the snow cover that comes off about 2 weeks earlier than usually. By the way, this winter there was practically no snow.

In Belarus weather conditions have been observed instrumentally for 130 years, which is quite a short period to judge the global climate changes, but it is enough to understand what is happening on the territory of out country. Meteorologists say that the last two decades may be called the hottest.

Abnormal heat is among the climate change consequences that have become more frequent in recent years. In addition to the heat, they include hurricanes, tornadoes, and sudden sharp frosts. Destructive typhoons and tsunamis, which, fortunately, cannot occur in our country, are also among the consequences. We can’t say that it’s all brand new, as these phenomena have always existed, but in the last twenty years they increased immensely worldwide. Of course, they greatly affect the national economy. Undoubtedly, the damage to Belarus is incomparable to multi-billion dollar damage from storms somewhere in Asia. But nevertheless we should realise that we may experience the sequel of the damage.

-One degree sounds like something harmless and insignificant…

-Maybe it does, but in practice one degree is an important change for the global climate system, for some countries it is even the matter of life and death. Due to the melting of ice and the sea level rise associated with it, some island states will be wiped out before the end of the century and their governments are now addressing the issue of the relocation of their citizens.  And I speak not only about distant islands; hurry to visit Venice while it still exists.

In the world of climate science and politics they are talking about the inevitable increase of temperature by 2 to 4 degrees. And if 2 degrees globally is a relatively safe change, then 4 degrees is a catastrophic turn. In case of 2 degrees increase only Central Asia (if we speak about neighbouring territories) will seriously suffer from fresh water shortage, but in case of 4 degrees rise everybody will be affected.

Regarding the climate changes in Belarus we can speak about the significant shift of agro-climatic zones. Flax is traditionally grown in our country; it is a part of our cultural identity. See, the northern afro-climatic zone is disappearing from Belarus, which means that we’ll no longer be able to grow flax and other crops. We have to adapt and think what else can we grow there. It is one of the areas of climate change adaptation.

-Lakes are thronged with grass, small rivers grow shallower. Is it due to the climate change, too?

-Everything is closely connected, there are many factors. As you know, Belarus was exposed to such a brutal human influence as melioration. To drain a large area of land is an extremely strong impact, especially on local climate zones. Melioration is not only draining, the process is not over yet: some areas are being swamped; some areas continue to de drained, the notorious “Peat” program is still in action and so on. That is why it is impossible to give a defined answer; we need seriously explore each region.

Nevertheless, we can definitely claim that the effects of melioration in Belarus are obviously negative. Healthy swamps and peat bogs absorb greenhouse gases, which is the primary reason of temperature increase, while degraded marshes, on the contrary, produce the gases.

- You spoke about the effect on the economy. How much are the abnormalities significant in financial terms?

- The World Bank gives curious numbers. The economy of Belarus on average loses 93 million dollars a year (in prices of 2005) because of unfavorable and dangerous weather effects.

There are data that say that agriculture, forestry, building and construction, transportation, power supply system, health care and many other sectors of economy are most dependent on climate change. All these industries require developing the adaptation measures. That is to say if we are sure the climate is changing, we should have elaborated an adaptation strategy, but we have not done it yet.

 Only the Ministry of Forestry is actively working on the problem, other sectors do not have any system in their work. It is an irresponsible position, because we lose not only money, but also the health of the nation. There are many people who are dependent on weather changes and they additionally suffer from the abnormalities. It is cardiovascular disease that is the main cause of death in our country. “Red Cross” distributes water, public organisations are concerned, but the Ministry of Health is inactive. Maybe this unusually hot summer will at least push the government to develop an adaptation strategy.

Among the negative consequences we can also name the rick of fires. The culture of leisure is awful: smoking, drinking, making barbecue, fire-works…No fire safety at all.

Another important hazard is infections and parasitic diseases, which are new to our country.

In conclusion I would like to add that the impact of the abnormal periods might be assessed only after decades of observations, analysis and multiple other markers. Now we can say for sure the climate is changing and we are responsible for that, but we are responsible for future changes and improvements as well.