The new year will be an important and crucial
for Minsk in the field of international relations. Belarus has an opportunity to mend relations with the European Union and
the United States. At the same time steps of Belarusian authorities are unlikely to
be so severe as to radically affect the situation in the country. However due
to Belarusian geopolitical and economic situation, they can facilitate a
dialogue with partners in the West.
On October 13, 2008 the EU Council adopted a principal decision to give itself and Belarus the opportunity to establish mutual relations. For six months visa
sanctions against Belarusian officials were partially suspended and a ban on
meetings of higher than the level of Deputy Minister was lifted. The EU has
also announced its readiness to establish technical cooperation with Belarus in areas of mutual interest.
Now it is expected that up to mid-April, the
Belarusian authorities will make some serious steps towards democratization. Of
the 12 recommendations made in the autumn of 2006, the EU has identified five
priority areas. The authorities offered to guarantee the absence of political
prisoners in the country, the greater media freedom, a dialogue with the OSCE /
ODIHR on the reform of the election legislation, improved working conditions
for non-governmental organizations and respect for freedom of association and expression.
In mid-April, the European Union re-examine the question
of visa sanctions: to remove them, to maintain, to strengthen or to extend the
suspension.
The removal of sanctions on the Belarusian authorities
is not just a question of political image. It will continue the process of
normalization of relations and will draw up a legal framework for them, which
is now virtually non-existent.
But how far can Minsk go to meet the desires of the EU?
The release of all political prisoners in Belarus, and almost full cooperation of the authorities with the OSCE in
the parliamentary elections held in September 2008 contributed to the adoption
of the break-through decision by Brussels. In November, the authorities sent a letter to the structure of
the EU listing the concessions that they were ready to make, assuring that those
were ‘first’ steps in the overall strategy aimed at the rapprochement. In the letter
there were promises to return the dissemination of two newspapers, to take into
account public opinion in the regulation of online media, to cooperate with the
OSCE in order to improve the electoral legislation.
Shortly after that the independent publications
«Narodnaya Volya» and «Nasha Niva» were returned to the sub directory and
public distribution system, the movement of «Freedom», headed by former
presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich was finally registered with a
fourth attempt.
On 24 November Minsk jointly with the OSCE hosted a seminar on the Internet media. A participant
of the seminar, Assistant to the President on Ideology Vsevolod Yanchevsky promised
that the views of the independent community will be taken into account while formulating
approaches to the regulation of online media. In addition, for the end of
January, consultations with the OSCE were scheduled regarding the amendments of
the Belarusian election legislation.
A dialogue between the U.S. and Belarus in the past six months was not so fruitful. In spring of 2008 as
a result of an acute conflict, the US Ambassador has been called back and the number of diplomats has
been significantly reduced. Despite of all this Washington was not slow to welcome the release of political prisoners in Belarus in August and to lift the sanctions against the two state-owned
enterprises.
After parliamentary elections in September,
which the OSCE called undemocratic, however noted some improvements against the
background of the U.S. presidential elections, the Belarusian-American political
relations were frozen.
In 2009 the relations of Belarus with the West may be positive, but unlikely to see any
breakthroughs, analysts believe. Optimism is not added as well by too formalistic
steps of Belarus taken towards the wishes of the West.
The Chairman of the Republican human rights
organization «Belarusian Helsinki Committee» Oleg Gulak in an interview with
BelaPAN predicts «maneuvering of the authorities between the system, which was
created in the country, and the European Union calling for liberalization in
exchange for ending the sanctions».
In his turn, the Chairman of the Committee on International
Affairs and Cooperation with the CIS of the House of Representatives of the
National Assembly Sergei Maskevich believes that the dialogue of Belarus with Europe will continue. While commenting on the prospects for a dialogue between
the authorities and the opposition to BelaPAN, he said that it «makes sense and
is possible if such dialogue will help to consolidate and develop the country
in the future». At the same time, according to a Deputy, the West will welcome
the mere fact of such dialogue.
Belarusian political analyst Andrei Fyodorov in
an interview with BelaPAN expressed doubt that further steps of Belarusian
authorities towards the West will be so significant, that will fundamentally
affect the situation in the country. Among the possible solutions to the forthcoming
period, a decrease of early voting in the elections (now under the law, it
lasts for five days), the registration of other non-governmental organizations,
to return to the dissemination of several local non-government newspapers. Fragmental
liberalization of the economy may also be expected, believes Fedorov.
However the assessment by the West of these
actions of Minsk will be influenced by many factors. Because of the lack of the
election campaign in Belarus in the coming months, to check the validity of amendments to the
electoral law will not be successful, said the expert. He said the EU could
«credit» the regime for the steps and to continue with a dialogue to prevent
the increasing influence of Russia in Belarus. «Brussels will have to choose, in essence, among the bad and the very bad»,
said Fedorov.
Meanwhile, if the situation evolves differently,
and Belarus, for example, passes on the Russian currency, the EU may decide
not to deal with the authorities. «Regardless of the progress of
democratization, because Belarus will lose its face as a nation», considers a political analyst.
According to Fyodorov, the economic difficulties
in the United States can help alleviate the country's policy towards Belarus. The expert did not rule out that under the new U.S. administration the positions of Washington and Brussels on the «Belarusian issue» will be getting closer.
Vitaly Silitsky, Director of the Belarusian
Institute for Strategic Studies (Vilnius) agrees with Fedorov. In his opinion, one should not expect major
changes in the Belarusian-American relations. There will be a period of ‘adjustment’
with the new U.S. administration which could be an attempt to normalize the relations.
However it is not clear yet who will be dealing with Belarus in Washington, said Silitsky.
Decorative reforms introduced by the Belarusian
authorities as a matter of fact will bring change, convinced Silitsky.
Meanwhile, the reaction of the EU is difficult to predict: there is no consensus
in the Council of the EU and the European Commission's own political lines
continue to adhere to policies of separate countries of the united Europe.
Perhaps, Brussels will find insufficient the efforts made by the Belarusian
authorities over half a correctional period. «Minsk, however, may be granted additional time to correct the
deficiencies promptly and the dialogue will continue», summed up Silitsky.
