Significant progress in the relations between the European Union and Belarus started after the release of the political prisoners. On 16 August an ex-Presidential candidate Aleksandr Kazulin was released, he was pardoned by a Lukashenko’s order. Prior to the release of the political prisoner number one, there was a visit of the German Ambassador Gebhardt Weiss to the Presidential Administration. Also in August an entrepreneur Sergey Parsiukevich and a youth activist Andrey Kim were released. The West warmly welcomed these moves by the Belarusian authorities.  

The following litmus test for the Belarusian authorities was supposed to be the Parliamentary elections. Aleksandr Lukashenko promised to hold them fair and transparent to the maximum extent and to show to the West and to Russia the way elections should be held. However no representative from the opposition managed to make it to the Parliament. Moreover, the elections took place in one round in all of 110 election districts simultaneously. In its final report, the ODIHR (the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights) recognized the elections as non-complying with the International standards.

Sanctions are suspended. Though temporarily

On 7 October the Chairman in Office of the OSCE - the Foreign Minister of Finland Alexander Strub, officially visited Minsk. The Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union Javier Solana telephoned the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Sergey Martynov and invited him to take part in the Meeting of Foreign Ministers of the European Union. On 13 October in Luxembourg a decision on the suspension of the visa sanctions with regard to 35 high-level Belarusian officials, including Aleksandr Lukashenko was adopted. The suspension is to be reviewed within 6 months. Therefore the European Union provided Belarus with a ‘probation’ period until April 2009.

In case the country is through this period, it may become a fully pledged member of the European Neighbourhood Programme, as well as the Eastern Partnership Programme participant. In the view of the European Union, the participation of Belarus in the mentioned above Programmes would depend on its general trends in the relations with the EU. The visible benefits of the Eastern Partnership Programme are the creation of the common economic zone with the European Union and perspective of the abolishment of the visa regime.

“A dialogue becomes more pragmatic and mutually beneficial”

An EU Deputy, a member of the International Committee, the Head of the sub-committee on cooperation with Russian and Belarus, Justas Paleckis highly appreciated the improved relations between the European Union and Belarus. “The state of affairs as it was prior to the last year is a dead-end. Not a beneficial dead-end, firstly for Belarus. Indeed for the European Union as well. There is a certain thaw in the relations and there should be mutual steps forward towards one another. Also it is crucial to bear in mind that not only politics but also relations between people are important”, said Mr. Paleckis.

The Press Secretary of the Belarusian MFA, Andrey Popov assessed the situation, “the dialogue between Belarus and the European Union becomes more pragmatic and mutually beneficial”.

On 26 January a meeting of the Head of the Foreign Ministry of Belarus Sergey Martynov with the representatives of the EU bodies, a so-called ‘troika’, i.e. the Foreign Minister residing the EU at the moment – Check Republic, the Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union and the EU Commissaire on External Policy will take place.  

Belarus – US relations: chilling effect still on

In the meantime the relations with the US in 2008 followed a different pattern. It all started on the 7^th of March when the Belarusian Ambassador to the USA was called back to Minsk “in relation with the introduction of the additional economic sanctions with regard to the concern “Belnaftakhim’ (it took place yet in October 2007). The US Ambassador to Belarus Karen Stewart was “insistently advised” to leave Minsk. Within two week the Ambassador Stewart returned back to the USA and 17 other American diplomats followed her. However the Belarusian MFA considered it was not enough and requested to shorten the number of staff of the American Embassy to 7 diplomats. In response to that the American Embassy in Minsk suspended the visa issuing procedure and therefore the Belarusian citizens have to travel to Moscow, Kyiv or Warsaw in order to obtain an American visa. The relations between the countries were also complicated by the trial of the US citizen Emanuel Zeltser and by the ‘spy disclosures’ of the Belarusian TV channels. However in September the USA eased up the economic sanctions with regard to the Belnaftakhim companies. However with regard to only two of them – “Lakafarba” and “Polats-Shklovalakno” and only for six months.

Belarus – Russia: sometimes warm sometimes chilly…

In 2008 the relations between Belarus and Russia have changed as well. The most obvious case concerned the delayed reaction of the Belarusian authorities to the events in the Caucuses, as well as the fact that the official Minsk was not willing to support Russia and to recognize the independence of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The complications of the relations between Russia and Belarus are also obvious from the fact that the meetings of the Highest Council of the Union State were postponed twice and never took place in 2008. The last meeting of the President Lukashenko with Dmitry Medvedev on 22 December in Moscow left many issues open. All this time it is being reported that the partners managed to agree on the gas price for 2009, however the exact amount was not announced so far.

Liudmila Korsak