British expert: the EU has not decided how to treat Minsk

The British expert noted the positive developments in Belarus: the absence of political prisoners, the return to the subscription of the two independent newspapers, the establishment of advisory councils, with inclusion of the representatives of the opposition.

Moreover, the amount of information about the European Union has increased and Belarus has also claimed that it was ready to develop equally good relations with Russia and the EU. "The EU understands the importance for Belarus to have good relations with Russia, however it pointed out to the opportunities and advantages that are open to the Belarusian society via close connection with the united Europe" - said the expert.

" Europe is united by common values. <...> Belarus, being as a sovereign country is free to choose and to form its own governmental system, however if it develops within the EU rules, the connection with Europe will be more productive and closer", said Charles Grant.

At the same time the Head of the Expert Center also noted that “there were certain actions undertaken that are contradictory to the steps towards the EU."

The British expert pointed to certain peculiarities within the decision-making process in the European Union, "the state bureaucracy, as an oil tanker: if a decision is made, it is difficult to amend it or revoke." According to the expert for " Brussels is easier to ignore than respond to certain developments in Belarus."

Charles Grant noted that "the EU would not start developing a dialogue with Belarus, until it has been reassured that the liberalization process of the country has a long-term nature."

The EU will include Belarus into the Eastern Partnership Programme in case there are “no bad news from Minsk”, says the British expert

The EU will include Belarus into the Eastern Partnership Programme in case there are “no bad news from Minsk by May”, said at a meeting with journalists in Minsk on 17 February Mr. Charles Grant, a British expert, director of the Center for European Reform (Centre for European Reform - CER).

According to Charles Grant, today the Belarusian authorities "have done enough" in order to become a part of the new policy and he "saw no reason" why the President Alexander Lukashenko could not be invited in May to Prague to take part in the founding Summit of the Eastern Partnership. Charles Grant noted that the decision to invite him could be taken at the last moment "to ensure the sustainability of the liberalization processes in the country."

In the mean time the British expert expressed an opinion that the possible recognition by Belarus of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia "was not such a big problem for the Belarusian-European relations, compared with the possible emergence of new political prisoners and of harsh crackdown on demonstrations."

According to Charles Grant, the Belarusian authorities are interested in the participation in the new EU Programme, which is more suitable for them compared with the European Neighborhood Policy. The expert sees there are three reasons for that: a decision by the authorities of the rapprochement with the EU; replacing the conditions for participation with the recommendations; the emerged multi-party level of cooperation of participants.

However the Head of the Research Center did not rule out "the deliberate attempts from the side of the enforcement bodies of Belarus to spoil the relations with the EU."

Charles Grant was on a visit in Minsk on 16-17 February. He held several meetings, including with the Foreign Minister of Belarus Sergei Martynov, opposition leaders, NGO representatives and diplomats, as well as students.

The Center for European Reform was founded in 1996 by Charles Grant and is now a leading research center in the UK on the European Affairs.

The visit of Charles Grant was organized by the British diplomatic mission to Minsk and was the first in a series of the planned visits by the leading British experts on European issues.

Source