Stanislau Bahdankevich: Change of the government is needed only with a reform program

The Belarusan government deserves to be offered resignation but there is no way that this measure can change the economic position of the country.

Such an opinion was expressed in a conversation with the EuroBelarus Information Service by an economist, former head of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich.

He noted that members of Mihail Miasnikovich’s government are unable to assert their stand before the President: “Adjustments were suggested at the beginning of this year.  There was even a discussion to make zero growth of the GDP. But as there are no heroes in the government, they sensed the Presiden’s point of view and immediately gave new figures: 5,5% for this year and 8,5% for the next year. Therefore, to my mind, they deserve to be offered their resignation. It is necessary to assert the stands till the last steps before resignation.”

Having agreed with the new figures, the members of the government should bear responsibility for their non-fulfillment. And in the opinion of the former head of the National Bank, it’s rather difficult to judge what will be the next composition of the government:  “I am not sure that it will be resignation of the whole government.  Rather it will be a partial renewal. It is difficult for me to say who will take which positions. I think our President is very unpredictable about it. He uses people from the same pack all the time. For instance, Rumas appeared from without but a few months later he resigned. Therefore, I think, that it is from the same pack, including the administration of the President, that some new shifts will be.”

On the other hand, as Stanislau Bahdankevich considers, it makes sense to assign new government only if it is given powers on reformation and market reforms of the economy. For this purpose it is necessary that the President will hand over a part of his powers to the government.

 “Executive body should be given powers. If there are no powers, what it can be criticized for? Then such a situation appears that our Olympic movement is headed by Aliaksandr Lukashenka and people to blame are those who haven’t brought 20 medals and more.  Evidently, he is to blame as he didn’t charge the proper people and didn’t govern it properly”, the economist considers.

He also thinks that it would be reasonable to prepare a program of modernization and reformation of the economy before the assignment of new government: “The most important priorities should be detailed in it. Some of these priorities can be normalization of inflation, maintenance of stability on currency market, resolution of the problem of investment flow-in (not to pledge 4 billions but to show how it is achievable), and creation of competitive economy at the expenses of competition in the market.”

Bahdankevich thinks that it would make sense to change the government only if there is a program: “I know Miasnikovich personally.  On the whole, he is inclined to make market reforms. Therefore, what for do we need to change him? He can be just given powers and required to prepare a program in order to bring it up for broad discussion in parliament and public at large. I have been passing such an opinion for a long time, but what is the use?”

At the same time the economist doesn’t create illusions concerning the readiness of Belarusan governing body to carry out market reforms. “After more than a dozen of years of absence of reforms I have no romanticism. I think that Belarusan leaders have an opportunity to solve the problem of retention of power and maintenance of some stability in society at the expenses of new loans, selling of some large-scale enterprise without reforming in order to create competition in our market,” considers former head of the National Bank.

In his opinion, problems will be still solved by force of involvement of new borrowings: “They will issue debt securities – Eurobonds – in the East, in the West, within the country. Now the rate of interest on currency is 6-7%, they will issue 8% then. And this way they will defray those sums which are to be paid off next year.”

 “For reforms we need to admit the fact that that we drop behind and that the model doesn’t work.  But this admission hardly can be achieved with our dear Aliaksandr Lukashenka in the lead. Because he doesn’t admit anything! There is always somebody to blame, not the model. The most important thing for them is to keep power. Therefore, credits will still be given at that interest which is excessive for our economy,” - noted Stanislau Bahdankevich.