Stanislau Bahdankevich: The problems will get worse, but we are far from collapse

Potash conflict together with the extensions on debt, rising prices, interest payments and a simultaneous increase in salaries. Can it bring down the economy?

Stanislau Bahdankevich, the ex-chairman of the National Bank is calm so far.

- I still adhere to quite an optimistic forecast, as the financial situation continues to be stable, the budget is in surplus, and the pricing is not yet galloping. With no doubt, Belarusan economic problems are huge, but the manual control of the economy has its advantages, - stated Stanislau Bahdankevich in an interview for “EuroBelarus”. – In any case, the manual control, as opposed to the exclusive market regulation, allows preventing a dramatic financial collapse. Moreover, the authorities have sufficient reserves in a form of state assets. Of course taking into consideration the recent situation with “Belaruskalij” or, to be precise, the arrest of Vladislav Baumgartner, the head of “Uralkalij”, our leading enterprise has dropped in price, but there is no need to sell it for nothing. In addition, there are oil and gas and mechanical engineering industries. In any case, after the sale of state assets the government may feel at ease for another year or two.

As for the losses in the result of “trade war” with Russia, that are becoming the more possible the longer Baumgartner stays behind bars, Bahdankevich says that the negative attitude will get worse, though not dramatically. Russia is not ready for harsh movements towards Belarus.

- I do not see a collapse, but, of course, after the arrest of Baumgartner the chances increased, which is seen as soon we examine recent statements of Russian officials. On the one hand the behavior of the Belarusan authorities is not absolutely appropriate, but on the other hand I see other elements of this problem – Vladimir Putin is extremely interested to keep Belarus in the Eurasian Economic Community. Look how much pressure is put on Ukraine because of its clear choice in favor of Europe but not EurAsEC. That is why I think that the problems will remain, but I would not say that they will lead to a collapse. At least not for another several months.