Barys Zhaliba: Abandoning dollar as suggested by Putin means giving up our economy to Moscow

According to the economist, the suggestion to proceed to the payment in national currencies within the CIS “bears obvious traces of the Russian ruble”.

Let us recall that Russia President Vladimir Putin has recently introduced a motion to the State Duma, which presupposes rejection of dollar and euro in accounts between the CIS countries. Switch to national currencies, which will lead to the establishment of united financial market between the countries of the Community afterwards is under discussion. Earlier Vladimir Putin mentioned the establishment of common currency within the frames of the Union State, Customs Union, and later the Eurasian Economic Union.

Professor Barys Zhaliba, Doctor of Economy, in the comment to the “EuroBelarus” Information Service claims that another Putin’s initiative, barely noted by anyone, is very dangerous for Belarus. “We remember that imposing Russian ruble to Belarus has started when Kebich was still Prime Minister and has been constantly raised by the Russian authorities in contacts with Lukashenka. I think that Lukashenka has opportunely understood what threat does Russian ruble present to him – he is losing an emission center, Belarus’ budget is approved in Moscow, while he has nothing to manage”, - recalls Barys Zhaliba.

As to the suggestion to proceed to national currencies, as the analyst emphasizes, it’s yet another veiled attempt to force weak economies to switch to the Russian currency in the end: “Clearly, in a ratio of GDP in Russia and other countries it will be the Russian ruble. Look, Belarus makes 3 per cent of Russian GDP, Kazakhstan – four per cent. What switch to the national currencies are we talking about? It will be Russian ruble indeed. And, as a consequence, liquidation of our economic sovereignty, even if it’s just like we have now. The threat hasn’t weakened; the latest proposal made by Putin is extremely dangerous for Belarus”.

“The developments might unfold in the most unexpected way. Putin will be lobbying his idea of de-dollarization, but his main goal is to restore the empire; that’s why the traces of the Russian ruble are obvious there. Putin will use the weakness of the allies’ economies, first of which is the Belarusian one and will take it barehanded. We have already seen what Putin does with his “Russian World”, that’s why we need to stick to our currency as much as we can. I hope that Lukashenka will have enough common sense to stay with the Belarusan rubles further on,” – said Barys Zhaliba.

However, if Belarusan economy sticks to the model we have it still has no prospects, assumes Zhaliba. “This model is built at preservation of autocracy in Belarus. It is tied to the Russian economy – through prices on oil, gas, and Russian market that remains the main consumer of our production. Taking all that into consideration, our inner model remains unchanged; even though the National Bank lessened money-and-credit issue it is still present; GDP is falling down, there is less currency, but the amount of Belarusan rubles is still growing. So it’s no surprise that our permanent crisis has aggravated. We were supporting the exchange rate only to make it collapse in December 2014 by 30 per cent; in August it collapsed by 20 per cent. And that will continue forever. By the way, inflation has a seasonal nature: we can call it “low” now; but, I think, it will shoot by the time of New Year, - Barys Zhaliba believes. – Belarusan economy will be preserved as it is in the best-case scenario; but in the worst-case scenario hungry stomachs of the working class will remind, who is the predominant force”.