Leu Marholin: All talks about the “inner resources” of economy are cunning

Starting from the times when Russian economy has collapsed, all Belarusan inner resources could be considered wasted.

The chairman of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus (NASB) Uladzimir Husakou amazed the world of science with a discovery, according to which Belarusan economic model is capable of functioning.

The head of the National Academy of Sciences, a scientist in the sphere of agrarian economy, Uladzimir Husakou PhD made a report at the conference in Research Economic Institute of the Ministry of Economy. Pointing at the unjust attitude of IMF towards Belarus, Husakou stated that the growth of GDP should be both “planned and forecasted”, saying that there are inner mechanisms for that – without any foreign loans.

How do the views of the head of NASB correspond with the Belarusan economy? The “EuroBelarus” Information Service asked the economist Leu Marholin several questions.

- The head of the NASB Uladzimir Husakou pointed Belarusan authorities at the injustice of IMF prognosis on development of the economic situation in the country. According to the forecast of the government, in 2016 Belarus is expecting the growth of GDP by 0.3% given basic scenario and even less if the scenario is negative. However, Husakou believes that the country should “both plan and forecast the growth of GDP”. Can Belarusan economy work for the GDP as it used before?

- In the near future Belarusan economy won’t be working for the growth of GDP. Everyone, including Lukashenka, understood: rush for figures has no prospects; secondly, there are no resources for this rush anymore. But, of course, we can plan and forecast growth of GDP for as long as we want to.

- According to most humble calculations of Husakou, we can scrape 8-8.5% of inner resources and get positive growth in 2016. Where should we look for the inner resources of Belarusan economy?

- Belarusan economy has no inner resources left. Since Russian economy has collapsed, all Belarusan inner resources could be considered wasted. If a miracle happens tomorrow, oil grows by two and a half times, sanctions are lifted from Russia, and Russian economy starts growing again – Belarusan situation will still be much worse than Russia’s: to a large degree we have already lost all competitiveness even at the Russian market.

But since there are not so many miracles happening in the world, we shouldn’t count on that. That’s why all talks about the inner resources are cunning. The only inner resource of the Belarusan economy is “free” manpower. But Lukashenka has blocked even this inner resource, having threatened employers with criminal liability for firing workers.

- “We cannot leave [the situation] at $500 of salary; in the next few years we should drive this amount to $1000. Which means that we should increase our GDP by twice”, - Husakou says. It seems that we have already heard it a thousand times…

- We do need to increase salary, otherwise something inevitable happens; something that we are slowly approaching just now – complete deindustrialization. All the highly qualified experts that respect themselves as professionals, will sooner or later leave, because even with the salary of $300-400 (since I don’t know where does the head of the National Academy of Sciences got this salary) it is basically impossible to find good experts. Now enterprises, especially in the regions mainly work at the expense of young 60-70 year-old pensioners. However, this resource has its end: tomorrow it will exhaust itself and our decay will be developing even quicker.

- The head of the National Academy of Sciences supported Belarusan economic system: “We cannot say that our model is bankrupt”. But can we say that it is capable of functioning?

- Everyone is free to make his or her own conclusions. But if over the 20 years Belarusan model didn’t lead to considerable growth and we happen to lack behind all countries that we started as equals with, what capability we are talking about? If the head of the National Academy of Sciences finds Belarusan economic model capable of functioning it does credit neither to him nor to the Academy of Sciences. Well, we can understand him: he is a state man, who is elected formally, but in fact is assigned by Lukashenka, which means that any inopportune word can lead to his dismissal.