Belarusan political exiles cannot influence today’s situation in the country and would hardly be able to do it in the future.
This opinion was shared to the EuroBelarus Information Service by philosopher Valiantsin Akudovich.
“This is made clear by the fate of the oldest political exile of the new time Zianon Pazniak. All his work and activity didn’t bring any particular results and that “Pazniak” part of BPF came to devastation together with all the BPF. However, it should be said that there is not that much use from the actions of the opposition left here”, - noted the interlocutor.
Besides he noted that the emigrants “can work for Belarus outside the country in many different formats and ways”. “But not more than helping Belarus and the democratic forces left there function in some way. As the experience of many political exiles shows, they work little and the result of their work cannot be named not only remarkable, but noticeable and important on the whole”, - emphasized Valiantsin Akudovich.
To his opinion we shouldn’t wait for consolidation of the diverse Belarusan emigrant sectors. Moreover, as not only Belarusan experience shows, emigration promotes further separation.
“One can look upon the emigration of the postwar wave, which was numerous. So what? Constant struggle of different groups among themselves. The old emigration is at odds up till now. I don’t think that the latest wave of emigration will be successful in some other way. They go there having already quarreled here and foreign land will hardly make them overcome their offence and unite. No! They will quarrel even more! Though certain local groups can appear where people with more or less similar worldviews will gather to make common cause”, - assumes the philosopher.
The ability of Belarusan emigrants to influence the politics concerning Belarus in the countries of their residence is limited as well.
“I wouldn’t overestimate their influence on the Western expert communities, especially political ones. There is no doubt that some contacts are being formed; perhaps, something will come out of these contacts. But until now I don’t know any example so that some initiatives (whether it is Eastern Partnership, or the sanctions, or the black lists for the civil servants) come out of the fact that they are lobbied and pulled by the emigrant forces”, noted the interlocutor of the “EuroBelarus”.
He assumes that the emigrant circles can only join the already existing initiatives – “speak at some forums and symposiums”, “form their own list, as they know who really took part in the repressions there”.
“I don’t believe that political emigration in the way it exists now has potential for some serious doings that will influence the situation in Belarus”, - summed up Valiantsin Akudovich.
He agreed with the fact that political emigration can be viewed as the brain drain from Belarus. “In other conditions, perhaps, a mere ten thousand people would stay here. And it would have brought certain benefit”, - noted the philosopher.
At the same time in today’s political situation in Belarus “the one who goes to the opposition activity is well aware of its danger and that it sometimes can threaten your life”. “So if you still go there – then you should be ready and prepared”, - emphasized Valiantsin Akudovich.
“Since long ago I have an impression that it is not so much the danger that plays its role in emigration as the feeling those “heroes” who leave this country have that they never found their place here. One cannot generalize, of course. But at least I have noticed such tendency long ago”, - said the interlocutor.
“It is exactly one of the reasons why I distrust the results of emigration, its ability to do something. It is because of their escape to political emigration from themselves, so they live with this obstacle inside them there, and act with this obstacle inside themselves”, - explained the philosopher.
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