BISS: The Return of Europe

05.11.2012 | Politics

BISS presents the seventh issue of the polling memorandum series based on the public opinion poll data of the Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS).

Surprising good news for Europe: for the first time since June 2011 Belarusians would prefer a European choice. No winner appeared in the opposition’s controversy whether to boycott parliamentary elections or to participate. BISS considers those to be the two main outcomes of the latest polling data provided by IISEPS (Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies).

If asked to vote in a referendum for a union with Russia or for joining the EU, 44.1% voted for the EU and 36.2% for Russia in October 2012. This is the largest surprise of the poll, coming one year after a steep fall of pro-EU sentiment and increasing pro-Russia sentiment (March 2011-March 2012), a trend which has started back in the second quarter of 2012. BISS attributes this shift to various factors (see below), including the EU’s changed post-2010 elections rhetoric and, especially, launching its “Dialogue for Modernization” (March 2012). The latest polling data may send a message to Brussels and other European capitals that the EU could have a reasonable influence in the country.

66.4% of respondents in IISEPS’s poll said they voted in the parliamentary elections, which is less than the officially announced turnout but more than reported by opposition party observers and more than the percentage of voters that had planned to vote in the elections in June 2012. The 9% of voters who supported a boycott of the parliamentary elections did not even match the number of those who claimed such a position before elections. The 7% who voted for opposition candidates fell short of the 28% of voters who considered voted for opposition candidates before the elections (according to pre-elections polls). Thus, BISS sees this as a bitter win-win for both those advocating a boycott as well as for those who decided to stay in the race for campaigning purposes.

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