Viktar Marcinovich: Configuration of opposition should resemble what it opposes to

It is rather hard to speak about the total consolidation of the democratic forces in Belarus in the next hundred years, though solidarity is the thing that Belarusan opposition lacks.

 This opinion holds an associate editor-in-chief of “BelGazeta” Viktar Marcinovich. Commenting upon the recent signing of the Vilnius Memorandum to the EuroBelarus Information Service he noted that “consolidation is the thing Belarusian opposition lacks most of all. But as a rule, such meetings, as the one held in Vilnius, end with one more border. And this border runs between the part of the opposition that is kind of uniting and with the part that is recognized as dolts, embezzlers, spies and fifth column”.

When it comes to the recent meeting held in Vilnius Marcinovich doesn’t think that something extraordinary has happened. “It doesn’t seem at all for me that this meeting has any kind of outcome whatsoever”.

According to the interlocutor, in all the unifying initiatives different goals can be seen: “It is necessary to distinguish between the wish to unite, the declaration of the wish to unite and what, for example, donors say about the unification. There is no doubt that the opposition that has disintegrated, split-up and turned its back on one another must unite. At least because it is confronted with the authorities that are united, militarized and extremely motivated. Even if we speak not about victory, but about some contrast to these authorities at all, then the configuration of the opposition should at least partially resemble the thing it opposes to. Though de facto we witness that the more solidity authorities have, the more disintegrates opposition becomes”.

Disintegration is incited by many things

According to Viktar Marcinovich, there are deep philosophical roots in all that disunion that we witness in Belarus: “This problem lies much deeper than simply Aliaksandr Lukashenka and the problems he introduced to the Belarusan political culture. Even the fact that we have two languages in the country already urges to disintegration. Those who speak Belarusan don’t understand a word of those who speak Russian. And those, who constantly speak Russian, face the fact that they cannot explain to the Belarusan-speaking friends many things without resorting to Belarusan language, which they don’t know. But even in Belarusan we have classical spelling and have the spelling of the People’s Commissars – Narkom’s spelling. Where else can we think of such country where there would be two sections on different Belarusan languages in Wikipedia? What consolidation can we expect from the opposition in these circumstances?”

“The late political scientist Vital Silicki assumed that in order to consolidate, opposition in Belarus needs a collusion of donors. He saw the reason of disintegration in financing of all the political subjects from different centers, - dwells Viktar Matskevich upon the possible tools and mechanisms of consolidation. – But it seems for me that it is not completely true. As those who provide grants do not have common interests in Belarus themselves. Very often these interests barely hinge on greater development of the resources. And many of them are not going to change Belarusan authorities. So the idea of Vital can be modified in this way: it would be better if instead of an agreement between the donors all our parties and movements start getting financing from within Belarus. Possible Belarusan donors realize that something should be changed and it should be done very quickly. But in today’s political situation I can barely imagine the example of how a prominent Belarusan oligarch even on terms of full anonymity and conspiracy gives money to any oppositional organization.

Resisting a many-headed hydra

The political landscape that we witness is, according to the journalist, much more difficult compared to some people’s perception of it: “The problems sit in our brain for a long time. If we read the articles of Vaclau Lastouski or the stories by Maksim Garecki we will see the same mess that we observe today. A hundred years ago, perhaps, earlier as well, we had the same thing. We are doomed to that, so the question lies not in how to unite opposition effectively but in how we can do something in the existing separated way. Because we do have some big players. Yes, they act in discord, but some even achieve something. And in the near hundred years, from my point of view, it is rather difficult to talk about the total consolidation”.

Viktar Marcinovich finds it rather understandable and objective that up to now it is mainly Warsaw and Vilnius, not Minsk or other Belarusan towns that become centers of the majority of the unifying initiatives: “It is dictated by rather pragmatic reasons. In Vilnius and Warsaw at least those cafes where our opposition gathers regularly are tapped. And personally I understand why people prefer go abroad when organizing various kinds of events. As well as it is obvious that to conduct political work in Belarusan towns is more difficult than in the neighboring countries. Though there are exceptions in this connection. For instance, “Tell the Truth!” movement. I believe that the morphology of this movement shows rather vividly what one can do within Belarus. We need to conceal our ideas, be rather temperate, do not behave as Andrei Sannikau, but as Uladzimir Niakliaeu did. Though even in this mode it is very hard to oppose something to the wheels of the state. As we have to combat not only some local authorities, but the many-headed hydra, whose body is situated not in Smaliavici, not in Hrodna, but in Minsk, in one certain point. And this brain center makes all the heads act in unity”.

Nobody is fighting for the first place

Despite rather skeptical attitude towards the possible consolidation of the democratic forces in Belarus in the foreseeable future, Viktar Marcinovich is convinced that there exist figures in the Belarusan social and political circles who can well handle the effective government of the state: “I bear the impression that now one sees people in the opposition that can be in charge not with the government of the country, but with the fight against the regime so that the possibility of governing a country would appear. The people who are ready and are able to develop Belarus in a constructive way are inconspicuous simply because of the goals they set to themselves. Moreover, their rhetoric sounds too much like conformist one sometimes. But such people do exist. For instance, I really appreciate the behavior of Andrei Dzmitryeu. I see him as a manager, a civil servant of a new generation. I watch with a lively affection how Nasta Palazhanka fights for her husband. But I don’t know how she would behave if, for instance, she would sit at the mayor’s office. Though I think she would bear herself very well. Because she has quite good education and she has correct thinking. Only in current conditions it is very difficult to reveal these qualities. As such people simply have to devote themselves to fighting”.

“There is such a shrewd observation that when the Soviet Union ceased to exist the people most prepared to occupy cabinets of the authorities were the members of the Young Communist League. As all the dissidents, including Sakharov, up to that moment were only involved in fighting with the system and didn’t have any management experience. And quick adolescents found themselves most close to the problem-solving center. That is why I back up the questions asked recently by Aliaksandr Klaskouski: what will come after Lukashenka? I can only express solidarity with his view. We still fight for the second place, and anybody hadn’t even thought about the possibility to be first. And those who ask themselves this question are in the shadow – similar to the actions of Andrei Dzmitryeu under the visible leader Uladzimir Niakliaeu”, assumes Viktar Marcinovich.