Ulad Vialichka: Relations of Belarus and EU should change
This forecast after evaluation of the relation of EU and our country shared the chairman of the International Consortium "EuroBelarus" Ulad Vialichka.
He believes that “this year we haven’t become more European country in particular, as any year when Belarus exists as an independent country makes us more European this way or another. And if we talk about political elements, then the previous year can’t be entered as an asset for a variety of reasons, which push us away from Europe rather than bring us closer to it”.
How to surmount insurmountable barriers?
In the relations of Belarus and EU we can witness waiting game, a desire to make other side break the ice, assumes Ulad Vialichka: “Belarusan and European relations are not frozen, but there are insurmountable barriers in these relations. Both sides are in the situation when for a variety of reasons they can’t abandon positions important for them. And it means that closer relations are impossible. It is a no-win situation in some sense. However, situation depends more on political will, and I think that if someone is able to move it from the dead point it would be Belarusan authorities. All the possibilities to change these relations into other state are in the hands of the authorities of Belarus”.
And there is a possibility that in the near future changes in the Belarusan and European relations will begin to show: “From time to time we hear that some negotiations on this subject are going on in the closed-door regime. Certain attempts are taken to move the situation from the dead point, on the problems of the diplomatic conflict, too, when Belarusan side can’t take back openly and publicly. Naturally, searches of the ways to optimize this situation are going on behind the scenes rather than publicly”.
What will happen with the dialog on modernization?
European dialog on modernization is in a way an example of what kind of relations Belarusan authorities prefer. “This is the format of the suggested relations which Belarusan authorities do not accept. But they are certainly ready to have a two-way dialog on modernization in the regime of “Belarusan authorities- European Committee” without the participation of other stakeholders, to which they namely urge European side through the negotiation processes”.
It turns out that “there is evidence which says about the presence of the will and intention to change situation for the better and establish more loyal relations. Nevertheless, there are certain boundaries, which do not allow make it unconditionally or publicly”.
According to Ulad Vialichka, “One shouldn’t talk about the footless expectations of the EDM, as there were no specific and big hopes for this dialog. Nobody waited radical change in the Belarusan and European relations from this dialog. It was clear in the very start that the level of expectations from the dialog on modernization is situated not that high. One sooner expected activation of the relations of the democratic players within Belarus – political subjects, civil Media, academic communities. It was expected that certain activation, synchronization and in some point consolidation of the actions or messages that proceed from the Belarusan society will take place between them. As the dialog itself was meant for the negotiations with the Belarusan society, not with the authorities of the country. And the dialog is on the make today, that’s why we do not need to wait some considerable breakthroughs in the relations of Belarus and Europe for this moment. But the potential of the dialog on modernization is far from being exhausted, though we shouldn’t cherish illusions on its all-cure character. The dialog simply gives pro-European forces in Belarus a possibility to be included in the relations with their European partners, to be heard and to be taken into account”.
Will European Unity be able to “bend” Belarus?
It is natural that Belarusan authorities have certain stance in relation with Europe, in relation to the dialog on modernization as well. This stance is not new and is not special in comparison with other cases which have already been suggested in the line of Belarus-EU: “For the Belarusan authority such formats of dialog are unacceptable and are interpreted either as an “interference in internal affairs” or as an “attempt to bend”, if we talk consistent with the topical slang of the Belarusan authorities. It is clear that this is a rhetorical speculation, as it is hard to imagine someone more tolerant and accurate in its actions than the European Committee, which has to coordinate its policy with a very big number of countries and authorities. And in this sense one can’t expect more politically correct position. And Belarusan authorities simply don’t want to be in the negotiation relations together with the other subjects form Belarus, which are illegitimate from the point of view of the authorities – these are Belarusan opposition, civil society, any experts and specialists who are not recognized by the authorities of Belarus as such”.
Nevertheless, Ulad Vialichka believes that the European dialog on modernization will be continued and Belarusan authorities are most likely not to enter it: “We will create negative image of these processes in all possible ways. But I don’t except that an additional line of the two-side relations on the European Committee’s and Belarusan authorities’ level will be put in place. The main as well as the key question will be the question of to which degree such kind of example will be correct, appropriate and compatible with the dialog on modernization in the eyes of the European subjects. Very much will depend on the principal stand and the profoundness of understanding of problem from the side of the European officials”.
What will be with the political imprisoners?
According to Ulad Vialichka, Belarus falls out of the collaboration format within the Eastern Partnership framework completely: “Sometimes out country even reminds the deaf and the blind in these relations, as the composition and the dynamics of the relations within the Eastern Partnership has changed a lot over the last three years. For instance, during this time Ukraine from the flagman of the Eastern Partnership has gradually turned into one of those who is lagging behind. At the same time, both the European Union and Belarus wants the history of the Moldova’s successes with rather stable tendencies on Europeanization”.
So far Belarus reminds a handicapped person, and first of all because of its own behaviour: “As with the people who suffer from serious diseases, the problem lies mostly in the sphere of their own wrong way of life. And we now remind of this very subject that has brought itself to this poor condition”.
And it is not very understandable why Belarusan authorities don’t play their cards with the political imprisoners in the country: “Why are Belarusan authorities not willing to get certain pluses and bonuses from releasing political imprisoners? It seems that a number of dividends which are taken from the Belarusan and Russian relations exceed the necessity of urgent normalization of the relations with Europe. This is the present situation. But as we all know, situation in Belarus is very unstable; positions can literally change during the month. In any case, it is obvious that some changes in the relations between Belarus and EU should follow, and I hope it will happen as soon as this year”.
As a leader of the International Consortium, Ulad Vialichka believes that in the relations between Belarus and Europe important role is attained to the civil society: “In this case we can talk about the National Platform as a certain quintessence of the civil society in the Belarusan and European relations. National Platform is not all the civil society in our country, but it is this organized part which considers itself and can be considered by others as a subject in the relations of Belarus and Europe”.
Will National Platform become a centre of consolidation?
Ulad Vialichka hopes that “National Platform will continue the line it has conducted during the last years, which is the increase of voice and the broadening of format of these relations. There is no doubt that the National Platform will continue its work on the available areas within the framework of the Eastern Partnership and during the European Dialog on modernization – for the benefit of the country and for the benefit of the positive change. It is clear that we are sufficiently restricted in the possibilities to influence these processes, but we have enough strength to introduce certain key-note, demonstrate some alternative models in the development of the relations and to act as a feedback for the European committee which would like to hear not only the official viewpoint. One shouldn’t wait anything revolutionary in this relation, we should simply continue the started work in conditions we already have”.
A lot will depend on the degree of consolidation of the civil society of Belarus within the framework of the National Platform: “This way or another, even in the presence of different viewpoints on the current situation in the National Platform, we should look for the common position, from which we can move further. But in this sense it is very important not to yield to the wish to bring situation in accordance with the simple principle “Let’s get on well”. It is correct principle, but the question lies in the way of its realization. Compromise and consolidation are possible only with equal reason. Consolidation with zero sum means taking off contradictions because of the basic reasons only, because of those reasons which practically don’t give anything new. We should avoid such simplification. But we should build formal peace and consensus in the situation of the real absence of quite ambitious level of challenges required for the conversion of the situation to some new condition”.
“Ability to achieve consolidation with a no-zero sum will depend much on the political, communicative and creative culture of those subjects of the civil society who are now responsible for the process of consolidation”, - highlights Ulad Vialichka.
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