Andrei Kazakevich: With today’s figures authorities can feel secure
Growth of pro-European and weakening of pro-Russian moods in Belarusan society can be explained by the coincidence of economic crisis and involvement of the country in European integration processes.
This opinion shared the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere) Andrei Kazakevich in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service.
According to the opinion poll conducted in December, 2012 by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) in the situation of choice between the integration with Russia and entry into the European Union 37.7 per cent voted for the first variant, while 43.4 per cent voted in favor of the second one.
“These data can be explained only by the fact that the present economic downturn is perceived by the Belarusan civil society as precisely connected with the revival of all sorts of integration projects and broadening of collaboration with Russia”, - observed Andrei Kazakevich.
It so happened that the Belarusan authorities had mostly pro-Western orientation when the economic situation was more or less stable, noted the expert. And it was with the beginning of crisis when the return to the ideas of integration and union took place.
At the same time, it is too early to say that stable pro-European majority is formed in Belarus, the expert assumes: “If we trace down the dynamics of the people’s moods during several years, then we can notice that there are groups of people who are hesitant between different variants, and in some situations they speak for the integration with Europe, but they can speak in favor of integration with Russia in other situations”.
There is no doubt that among those who support the idea of European integration some have rather settled views: “If we examine the results of the sociological opinion polls for the last decade, this number can be registered accurately. European choice for these people is connected with the values, with their idea of the strategic development of the country, some cultural reflexes and so on”, - noted the interlocutor of “EuroBelarus”. The amount of such European supporters in the Belarusan society makes about 25-30 per cent of the population.
At the same time, during the latest opinion poll of the IISEPS the representatives of another, less stable part of the society has joined the group of “European optimists”. “And the affections of these people can change depending on the economic situation, enforcement of the propaganda tools and some other external factors”, - said Andrei Kazakevich.
To his thought, Belarusan authorities will take pro-European moods into consideration more in their rhetoric rather than in their strategic actions: “They will pay greater attention to it, highlight it in their public speeches”.
But pro-European moods of the Belarusans can hardly influence the behavior of the official Minsk in relation to the EU, specified the expert. “Real foreign policy of Belarus is built on absolutely different principles and doesn’t provide for the opinions of the citizens to a large degree. And today’s orientation towards Russia is explained by some pragmatic reasons: there exists isolation from the West caused by certain political situation. I think that this logic will keep on being determinative”, - he said.
The interlocutor also recalled that we should be aware that neither 95 per cent nor 80 per cent of citizens are in favor of European integration. “With today’s figures authorities can feel self-confidence”, - assumes Andrei Kazakevich.
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