Andrei Yahorau: Probability that a united candidate will appear in 2013 is very low
Actions of different political forces to assign a united candidate can’t be viewed as serious steps testifying to the formation of new coalitions.
This opinion shared Andrei Yahorau, the director of the independent think-tank "Centre for European Transformation", when giving his evaluation of the information about the consultations carried out between the Movement for Freedom, “Tell the Truth” campaign and the Belarusian Popular Front Party.
On the whole, the fact that such consultations are taking place and are publicly announced even if they are informal he assesses as positive. “Consolidation of efforts and coordination of actions between such structures, as the Movement for Freedom and “Tell the Truth” is, undoubtedly, a positive step forward”, - said Andrei Yahorau in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service.
But it is too early to talk about the realistic character of the developing coalition, assumes the expert. First, so far the cooperation processes are not going beyond the scope of the nonpublic negotiations which have been constantly taking place earlier. And secondly, “the subject-matter of negotiations is very weak and insufficient in the forthcoming campaign”.
“Basically, the matter is not accommodation between common actions and certain representation in the form of common leaders, but only some procedures, the formation of common candidate. And for now, the negotiations between tree structures are under way. Only two of those have rather serious political weight”, - said Andrei Yahorau.
What concerns the primaries procedure suggested by the United Civil Party, “it is very difficult to treat it seriously at all”, believes the political scientist.
“The announcement about the merger or consolidation of structures that is based on common leadership, common brand, common strategy, coordinated actions and some particular actions would be serious”, - Andrei Yahorau reminded about his earlier suggested criteria.
At this point in time, while the real process of consolidation is substituted by quasi-democratic procedures of the nomination of the common candidate, the actions of the politicians can be assessed as PR at best, highlighted the expert.
The lack of unity among opposition the interlocutor explained as follows: “When the essential questions of the actions strategy, planned goals, real weight of forces and their mutual relations in the united structure are discussed, the matters of procedure should strengthen the establishing unity and promote realization of the program. And if the procedure matters substitute the substantial ones, then it happens so that one cannot find solidarity”.
When talking about the probability that new political forces aiming at real consolidation appear, Andrei Yahorau noted that they would still have to come to an agreement with the already existing players. “As it is hard to imagine that strength that would possess the resources enabling it to produce serious political actions even without consolidation”, - he explained.
Besides, there is little time to depend upon someone who will come and make all the work that political opposition hasn’t come to do during all these years. On the whole, the probability that the common candidate will be identified or common opposition center will be formed is extremely low, believes Andrei Yahorau.
-
03.01
-
07.10
-
22.09
-
17.08
-
12.08
-
30.09
