Andrei Kazakevich: Few will finance Belarus only for the bad relations with the West

Who are best friends of the official Minsk those days? Which countries are most interested in collaboration with Belarus?

After Hugo Chavez’s death Belarusan authorities are facing the difficulty to find some close ally like this. Countries of South-Eastern Asia (China, Vietnam and others) can become possible area for search.

This opinion shared in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere) Andrei Kazakevich.

He believes that economic projects of Belarusan authorities in such countries as Iran or Venezuela have decayed because of the lack of an expressive strategy of mutually beneficial collaboration. “The efforts of the authorities were rather aimed at situational exploiting of anti-Western policy of this or that country”, - stated the political scientist.

The time has come to look in East?

However, with time it becomes harder to employ these arguments. “First, the number of countries who can finance Belarus only due to its bad relations with the West is a limited. And secondly, the advance in number of such anti-Western countries was to a large extent connected with the presidency of George Walker Bush in the USA, his invasion of Iraq and other foreign-policy actions of that sort. Currently the situation in the foreign affairs sphere is more or less stable and new countries do not appeal to the anti-Western policy, and those who used to do that now show less activity in foreign politics”, explained Andrei Kazakevich.

He believes that the only direction for the Belarusan authorities where certain results can be achieved through the usual anti-Western approach are the countries of South-Eastern Asia (China, Vietnam and others). “Perhaps, the authorities of these countries will manage to find some new foothold for their foreign policy, something to counterbalance Russia and Europe”, - said the expert.

Lately official Minsk has put big hopes on China. “But here a certain change in concept is going on, because anti-Western moods are not a weighty argument for China. Whereas the main argument is the ability of China to invest in different projects all over the world. And Belarus is willing to attract this investment”, - highlighted the interlocutor.

Has Venezuela become Belarusan springboard in Latin America?

When it comes to Latin America, it is Juan Evo Morales, the president of Bolivia, who shares common aspirations with Hugo Chavez, believes Andrei Kazakevich: “Still, Bolivia is a small isolated country with its local interests and it is understandable that this country has little economic potential. Ecuador has the similar situation”.  

However, if we take countries that carry considerable weight in the area, such as Brazil, Argentine, Mexico, we will see that none of these countries are suitable for games played by the Belarusan authorities, stated the political scientist. “As even if some people with left-wing views enter the government there, they behave much more pragmatically and don’t pursue pure anti-Western policy”, - he explained.

Andrei Kazakevich excluded the possibility that Belarusan side will undertake some attempts to reach these countries: “But still, I think that everything will be limited to the intensification of the economic cooperation”.

In the long run, we shouldn’t neglect Venezuela, as it is highly possible that certain projects with this country will be continued. However, the interlocutor of EuroBelarus doesn’t exclude the possibility that certain understanding will be reached with the new authorities of Venezuela, whoever comes to power.

Who is ready to buy the talks?

On the whole, Andrei Kazakevich explained the small number of the allies of the official Minsk by the fact that Belarus has rather cynical and pragmatic attitude towards collaboration with other countries. “As the question consists not in the fact that our authorities are against westernization or globalization; we are merely looking for the means to finance our poor economy. There is no doubt that with the course of time we can learn to sell talking, too, - he noted. – But after two-three years our partners come to understand that it is nothing more than some cynical approach. Besides, there are such factors as geographic remoteness and differences in economies. It is hard for the countries to find certain essential bilateral interests”.

In these conditions Russia remains almost the only country that has strategic interests in Belarus. “Russian elite is ready to invest in the Belarusan regime in order to reserve this springboard for itself. And to find some other country that would be as interested in Belarus as Russia is likely to be impossible”, - Andrei Kazakevich said.