Andrei Yahorau: Any realistic association will provoke consolidation

If the unity of left-wing political forces will turn to be real, not fictitious, then it could provoke consolidation processes in the whole opposition structure.

Such an opinion was expressed in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service by Andrei Yahorau, political scientist and the head of the Centre for European Transformation.

“Any alliance in our situation can only be welcomed, - noted the expert. – But everything depends on how realistic this consolidation is. Throughout Belarusan history we witnessed a great number of fictitious unions that are done for demonstration of consolidation, not for real changes in the politics. That is why in this case we’ll have to check whether this unity is real or fictitious”.

Andrei Yahorau recalled the six criteria that help to distinguish consolidation of opposition from its imitation, which can be employed in relation to the new consolidation of the left-wingers. “First of all, it is the united membership of leaders.  And the number of leaders should be no less than the number of structures that are in this unity. If we will see that one or two leaders will speak on the side of this left-wing unity, it will suggest the realism of this unity”, - explained the political scientist.

“Besides, - he continued, - the announced strategy and certain actions connected with this strategy will serve as the indicator of  the realistic side, so that we as the external observers could see whether this consolidation really does something and develops some strategy that we can track and watch in real life, moving in accordance with the plan. It is in this particular case that we can talk about the presence of some serious consolidation”.

But is the consolidation of the left-wing political forces able to provoke consolidation processes among other political players?

Andrei Yahorau believes that “any realistic association, even that of the communists with the Christians provokes consolidation processes”. “If some effective unity starts merging its structures, leader membership, resources, move in some direction, then it sets some trend. And all the rest will have to move to consolidation only to meet the trend”, - noted the political scientist.

However, it is still hardly possible that the uncoordinated Belarusan left-wingers will be able to work together, the expert believes. “All the more that it is difficult to compare today’s situation with the former situations, as before that these party systems were more or less functional. And now all political blocks, except “Spravedlivy Mir” (Just World) Party, look much weaker”, - highlighted Andrei Yahorau.