Leanid Zaika, Andrei Kazakevich and Valery Karbalevich on the CIS meeting in Minsk

Prominent Belarusan political experts share their impressions from the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting.

On October 24, 2013 the session of the CIS Foreign Ministers’ Council took place in Minsk. According to the press office of the Foreign Ministry of Belarus, the Heads of the delegations that took part in the session discussed the issues regarding the development of interaction in the sphere of security and struggling against violation of law, cooperation in the humanitarian, cultural and tourist spheres.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka named the meeting of EurAsEC in Minsk “crucial” for the future of CIS.

“Actually, it is what he should have said, - commented in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service Leanid Zaika, the head of the analytical center “Strategia” (Strategy). – But so far, I don’t see the necessity to talk about it being crucial. But Lukashenka is right when he talks about it, as if it were not for him, nobody else would say about the “crucial role” of this meeting. Small countries always have such a desire to look big and important; they lack magnifiers, so to say”.

According to Zaika, it was Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbaev who surprised him most. “Many were taken aback and puzzled by Putin’s remark. He said that Indian authorities were interested in closer cooperation with the Customs Union in the trade sphere. Well, India can assimilate any Customs Union itself. In this case, I think, all the possible countries should be invited in this union. Then it will either break down very soon or, vice versa, will become so powerful that Americans, and even Europeans, would gasp with surprise at that… However, such decisions can’t be made in Minsk, this is for sure”.

As to Nursultan Nazarbaev’s comment about the desire of Turkey to enter the Customs Union, “it’s such a blow. The EU doesn’t want to take in Turkey, and then comes this crucial offer”. “So the discussion will start, which is very interesting”, - Leanid Zaika noted.

“Frankly speaking, I enjoyed the first day of the meeting. Lukashenka is talking about how crucial this meeting is, Putin is talking about India, Nazarbaev is talking about Turkey. However, none of them has mentioned the fact that export in these countries failed this year. Among all the countries-members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries-members of the Customs Union – Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia, - have the poorest rates. I was shocked with this statistics. It turned out that those countries, which traditionally were considered to be minor in CIS, have the highest GDP growth rates. Why can’t it be mentioned? They are saying that trade turnover between the countries has grown thrice as much. Of course, it did; but the global parameters have dropped. Presidents are emphasizing the good sides; but the definition of “good” is vague, and it becomes suspicious”, - summed up the head of “Strategia”.

EuroBelarus Information Service also got the comments of Andrei Kazakevich, the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere). He believes that fundamental integration problems at post-Soviet area are insurmountable, and the plans of abolishing EurAsEC testify to that:

- Unlike the EU, this is a perennial problem of post-Soviet integration, where a number of huge countries play a dominant role. Such a disproportion is continuously being an insurmountable problem at the post-Soviet area. Thus, in the long run, all post-Soviet formation will either decay, or be subject to Russia, which has negative consequences both for Belarus and for Kazakhstan.

The expert believes that the statement made by Nazarbaev should be interpreted like this: “EurAsEC doesn’t perform the functions and tasks assigned to it; whereas new structure – Eurasian Economic Community – will be more successful with completing the assigned tasks”.

Andre Kazakevich also thinks that Nazarbaev’s statement can be a signal for formal abolition of the EurAsEC, though “on the other hand, there are international agreements which should be observed”. “Perhaps, some transition period will be introduced, during which EurAsEC functions and goals will be gradually turning to Eurasian Economic Community”, - reasoned the expert.

In the interview with BelaPAN, political analyst Valery Karbalevich said that the meetings of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the CIS Council of Heads of State have not resulted in anything significant.

- It is difficult to imagine how a CIS summit could possibly have any important results, considering that the CIS is not an international organization but a merely platform for meetings and talks, - Valery Karbalevich said. - The issues on the summit's agenda were too insignificant to be discussed by presidents.

Valery Karbalevich described the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council as an intermediate one. The Council discussed issues that should be addressed by the time the Eurasian Economic Union comes into existence, he explained.

It is possible to tell what the presidents discussed only from their occasional remarks, Valery Karbalevich said. It is clear from statements made by Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Kyrgyz President Nursultan Nazarbaev both during and before the meeting that they are not entirely pleased with Russia's policy, he said. On the one hand, Russia is reluctant to remove trade barriers within the Customs Union, and on the other hand, it wants to establish some supranational political bodies as soon as possible to turn the economic union into a political one, Valery Karbalevich said.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka clearly indicated during the meetings on Thursday and Friday that he wanted all restrictions on trade in energy resources to be removed, Valery Karbalevich said. Aliaksandr Lukashenka would like to buy gas at Russia's domestic prices without paying anything to Russia for exporting petroleum products, he said, adding that Russia's reaction was difficult to predict.

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov promised the removal of all exceptions from the Customs Union’s free trade regime in 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised genuinely free trade starting 2014, but they have yet to keep their promises, Valery Karbalevich noted.

As the host, Lukashenka also wanted to use the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the CIS summit as a PR coup, Valery Karbalevich added. "It was necessary to show the Belarusian voters that he is a respected politician of an international level, that the leaders of many countries attend his summits," he said.