Andrei Yahorau: Now it all depends on the outcome of Euromaidan

photo by Aliaksei Kazliuk

Force used in suppressing Eurorevolution doesn’t give Yanukovich any other alternative but to establish “Lukashenka’s” authoritarian regime.

Situation in Ukraine analyzes Andrei Yahorau, the Director of Centre for European Transformation, in the interview with the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- The protests against the refusal of the Ukrainian authorities to sign the Association Agreement with the EU are going on for six days already, and it’s about time to draw preliminary conclusions. What is the possible direction that Eurorevolution is moving towards?

- For now it is quite hard to give forecasts as to what direction Eurorevolution takes and what will be the outcome.

- First attempt to dissolve a government led by Azarov was unsuccessful. The opposition presented Yanukovich with an ultimatum: to dissolve the government in two days. Is the Ukrainian leader going to sacrifice the government for peace in the country or he will try to break the revolution down?

- In order to give forecasts, we should look deeper in the Ukrainian inner political processes.

To put all the blame on government and dismiss it would be a wise thing for Yanukovich to do. This step would suppress the protests in the Ukrainian society. This scenario is one of the acceptable ways of peaceful settlement of situation for everyone, including Yanukovich. I believe that resignation of the government would allow him to hold on till new presidential elections, and even might help him to win the elections if foreign-policy priorities are changed.

- What should Ukraine expect if the Eurorevolution fails?

- If this scenario is realized it will bring no good.

Both the opposition and the authorities will benefit from the peaceful settlement of dispute by means of dialog, negotiations and compromise.

If the Ukrainian authorities use power in suppressing Eurorevolution, it won’t give Yanukovich other alternative but to establish “Lukashenka’s”, i.e. authoritarian regime, where he can use the experience of his closest neighbours, Russia and Belarus.

- It is obvious that the development of the situation in Ukraine changes geopolitical spectrum in Eastern Europe. What are the threats for Belarus and the whole region if Eurorevolution in Ukraine fails?

- Now it all depends on the outcome of Euromaidan. The main question is how Ukraine will settle political crisis? Either Ukrainian authorities choose dialog, negotiations and compromise with the opposition and the society, or they choose emergency measures that will inevitably lead to the establishment of the authoritarian regime.

Authoritarian tendencies is a threat to the whole region; the Ukrainian issue is not about the balance between the West and the East, but rather between democratization and current tendency of stepping back from democratic values, where Ukraine plays the key role.

The establishment of the authoritarian regime in Ukraine will lead to the growth of such tendencies in Russia. And Russia, in its turn, will get much more opportunities to exert pressure on its closest neighbours, that is Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine.

If such scenario takes place, the situation will be really, really bad.