Ulad Vialichka: The only thing in Ukraine that doesn’t fit in the Belarusan scenario is Maidan

Ukraine’s authorities have only two options: either to look for compromise with the protesters or build dictatorship. However, the second option is hindered by the active resistance of the society.

Upon the recent events in Ukraine commented Ulad Vialichka, the chairperson of the Coordination Committee of the National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum, the head of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus” in the interview with the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- It is the authorities who are to blame for the conflict in Ukraine, stated the first President of the country Leonid Kravchuk. Do you support his viewpoint?

- All rounds of Ukrainian events are concentrated in the hands of the authorities, and it is the authorities who put in the information that provokes further development of the situation. And the package of bills that substantially restricts rights and freedoms of the Ukrainian people is the latest input.

- Dictatorial laws, adopted by the Ukrainian authorities in a big hurry, have caused Maidan’s radicalization. What threat do these laws present for Ukraine?

- Even being in Belarus, i.e. very close to Ukraine, it is hard to give univocal judgment as to who is responsible in the escalation of the conflict. However, from what we see, it is Ukrainian authorities who are to blame. I hope that these “dictatorial” laws, fully copied from the Russian ones, will be finally called back, as they throw Ukraine back in the democratization process.

However, the fate of the “dictatorial” laws is not decided yet; they are the subject of negotiations between the opposition and the authorities. I hope that common sense would prevail, and Ukrainian authorities will abandon the defective laws.

- What role in the fights against the oncoming dictatorship is given to the Ukrainian civil society?

- As seen from the open sources of information, Ukrainian civil society takes the side of the protesters. Civil society articulates its stance, defends human rights and freedoms, and no arguments, connected with the expedience of our life, can compensate for these values.

A lot of civil society representatives perform real functions, such as providing the functioning of Maidan and trying to inform the international community about the actual situation in the country.

- Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum called for the EU to stop any financial aid to the Ukrainian government and bar entry into a country to all 239 Members of the Ukrainian Parliament, who on January 16 adopted a law, which violates most fundamental rights to freedom of expression and assembly. Judging by the Belarusan experience, such kind of sanctions are either ineffective or do not work at all. It is the blocking of accounts of the law’s authors and Yanukovich himself that could rather be more effective. Is EU ready for that?

- It seems to me that in the present situation such measures require deep analysis. We all are witnesses to the active development of the situation in Ukraine; and it is most likely that the EU applies certain sanctions if the situation is deteriorating. However, how radical these sanctions will be depends on the results of the confrontation.

Now we can expect “lively reaction” from Europe: statements, visits of European high-ranking officials to Kiev, whereas in order to introduce sanctions more time and more thorough analysis is required.

- Gorbachev urged USA and Russia start negotiation process on settlement of the situation in Ukraine. However, as seen from the experience of the Belarusan dictatorship, external action doesn’t always reach its goals; all the more that Russia isvitally interested to include Ukraine in itssphere of influence. Can foreign countries help Ukraine?

- The fate of Ukraine is in the hands of Ukrainians. I don’t think that the involvement of the third parties will be useful for Ukraine. Ukraine is capable to settle its inner problems on its own, despite their complexity. And today Ukraine has a chance to demonstrate that it is an independent country.

- Experts say that Yanukovich hasonly two options: to establish dictatorship or to submit to Maidan. Sad it might be, but it seems that Yanukovich’s regime is inclined to choose the Belarusan way.

- I was skeptical about such suppositions in November; however, subsequent events rather confirm this hypothesis than rebut it. The only thing in Ukraine that doesn’t fit in the Belarusan scenario is the active resistance on the side of the society, i.e. Maidan.

Ukraine has chances to avoid the Belarusan way of development. Ukraine’s authorities really don’t have many options: either to look for compromise with the protesters or to build dictatorship. However, the second option will result in the same falsifications at the elections that we observe in Belarus over many years.

Situation is developing, so it is unclear who will win in the end.

But during the confrontation Yanukovich hasn’t made any concussion to the society and hasn’t tried looking for compromise. Ukrainian authorities are inconvincible, which considerably limits the possibilities of peaceful settlement of the crisis.