Andrei Kazakevich: Annexation of Belarus by Russia doesn’t seem a fantasy anymore

Russian authorities view transformation of Belarus into a region or several regions of federation as an opportunity to avert complications at the western borders of the “Russian world”.

It can also be a possibility to avoid the permanent necessity to lose time and strength for negotiations with the official Minsk during the ongoing confrontation with the West.

Minsk is striving to be neutral in Russian-Ukrainian war, which deserves approval. Unfortunately, Kremlin has many mechanisms to influence the official Minsk. We can expect the enhancement of Russian pressure on the Belarusan authorities.

Will Minsk manage to reconcile Russia and Ukraine? Is Crimean scenario awaiting Belarus? Will Putin launch a war against continental Ukraine?

Andrei Kazakevich, the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere), answers the questions asked by EuroBelarus Information Service.

- Belarus will make every possible effort to have brotherly and good-neighborly relations between Ukraine and Russia re-established, to help find the ways of resolving contradictions and preventing confrontation. This statement was made by Belarusan Foreign Ministry on March 19, the day after Putin annexed Crimea. Official Minsk is seeking to perform a peacekeeping mission or this statement has some different meaning?

- Minsk is striving to be neutral in Russian-Ukrainian war, which, considering all the circumstances, deserves approval. However, Kremlin will exert pressure on the Belarusan authorities so that they adopt Russian official position.

As to the peacekeeping mission, it will be hard for Minsk to perform this mission. Two factors are against it: little political influence in the region, as well as no guarantees of neutrality (considering specific relations with Moscow). However, it will be a diplomatic achievement if we take a peacekeeping line.

- Can Minsk count on noninvolvement if it is Russia’s main military and political ally?

- The status of ally doesn’t presuppose that Belarus supports any steps taken by Russia.

Belarus is trying to be neutral, which is the best variant in the given circumstances. I think that it is not in the interests of Belarus to intervene in this conflict at all. But surely, Russia is putting and will put pressure on Belarus.

- Can the desire of the Belarusan authorities to maintain neutrality in Russia-Ukraine war result in Kremlin’s bigger annoyance and the wish to annex Belarus after Crimea?

- Such danger exists; at least annexation of Belarus by Russia doesn’t seem a fantasy anymore. But it is not related to the position that Minsk occupies. Russian authorities view transformation of Belarus into a region or several regions of federation as a mechanism of establishing consistent control over the territory. Loyal authoritarian regime, which demonstrates tendency for independence, is no longer viewed as a reliable guarantee of “Russian interests”. Accordingly, the scenario with annexation becomes more feasible. Belarusan sovereignty was guaranteed by the well-known Budapest Memorandum; but Russia has already violated it during the crisis in Crimea.

- Many were hoping that Crimea’s annexation will lower the level of tension in the region. But it seems like the situation is moving towards a real war. Does Putin have enough resources and determination to launch a war against mainland Ukraine, against Kiev?

- Crimea’s annexation won’t stabilize the situation in the region, but rather will destabilize it. It is a radical decision, which is already radicalizing Ukraine.

On the other hand, Crimea is too small a territory for Russia to stop at this point. This way or another, Moscow will try to intervene in the affairs of the continental Ukraine. And the possibility of military intervention to Ukraine’s territory shouldn’t be excluded, too. Russia has crossed its Rubicon.

The main restricting factor of the military escalation is huge political and economic risks. Secondly, huge funds are needed to establish control over the occupied territories. Moreover, the obedience of millions of population is very doubtful – it is not a Crimea or South Ossetia or Abkhazia.

And of course, unpredictable foreign political consequences which can lead to complete Russia’s isolation, special sanctions and even military clashes between Russia and NATO.

This scenario is very risky for Russia. And for our region escalation of military conflict is a catastrophe.

- The world is ready to put up with the annexation of Crimea, but it won’t accept occupation of remaining Ukraine, will it?

- Crimea is really a local problem, and its annexation went with no big losses. The world (especially the western world) won’t put up with the annexation, but nobody is interested in escalation either.

At the same time, the consequences of broadening the seat of war are unpredictable. The war can result in absolutely different foreign political state of affairs, which is to be much tougher. It doesn’t necessarily presuppose military actions. In any case, Russia will be boycotted everywhere.