Point of view: Belarus-EU relations’ development will be restrained by Belarus’ dependence on Kremli

With the ongoing Russia-Europe escalation due to the downed Malaysian Airlines’ passenger plane and military conflict in southeastern Ukraine, Belarus increased its official contacts with Brussels.

Amid growing tension in Russia – EU relations, the Belarusan authorities aspire to take the lead in their relations with Brussels. The Belarusan government considers the resurgent geopolitical confrontation in Europe as a window of opportunity to develop Belarus – EU dialogue without fulfilling the main requirement, i.e. the release of all political prisoners. However, Belarus’ dependence on Russia and the increasingly aggressive foreign policy of the latter seriously limits Belarus’ participation in European integration initiatives.

During his visit to Minsk, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius met with his Belarusan counterpart Vladimir Makei, Prime Minister Mikhail Miasnikovich and civil society representatives.

Amid growing geopolitical confrontation in Europe, official Minsk aspires to settle the Belarusan-European relations by taking a neutral passion in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and not openly supporting Moscow’s actions vis-à-vis Ukraine (or other countries in the region, which signed association agreements with the EU). The Belarusan leadership is ready to deepen cooperation with the EU in some areas (those considered not overly politicized), such as visa liberalisation and economic cooperation.

Against the background of Russo-European escalation due to the downed Malaysian Airlines’ passenger plane and military conflict in south-eastern Ukraine, Belarus has increased her official contacts with Brussels. While the Kremlin is busy curbing sanctions’ pressure from the West in a response to the plane crash, Belarus attempts to settle her relations with the West without undue interference from the Kremlin. 

For instance, ahead of Belarus’ Foreign Minister’s visit to Brussels, the Belarusan authorities have issued an entry visa to German Bundestag Deputy Marieluise Beck, whose goal was to study the human rights situation and the political situation in Belarus. Marieluise Beck is a well-known critic of Belarus’ official policies; she has been denied entry to Belarus for three years in a row.

The Belarusan government also demonstrated interest in cooperation with the EU within the Eastern Partnership Programme. Primarily, this interest stems from the growing economic imbalances and the need for regular external borrowing to keep the national currency afloat. For instance, Belarus’ Prime Minister Miasnikovich said that “more serious projects, such as infrastructure projects could be developed”. 

Amid the unpredictable Kremlin’s foreign policy, the majority of the opposition is not interested in throwing a spanner into the Belarus-EU machinery over “pragmatic” issues. 

Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy and Belarus’ huge dependence on Russia, prompt her to cautious actions. In order to mitigate the Kremlin’s potentially negative reactions to enhanced cooperation between Belarus and the EU, the official Minsk proposed to involve Russia in the Eastern Partnership initiative “in order to pre-empt the emergence of new dividing lines in the region”.

The Kremlin reacted nervously to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine (the EaP countries) signing the association agreements with the European Union and retaliated with adopting import restrictions on some goods from these countries. The Belarusan leadership supports the division of the Eastern Partnership countries into two categories in an attempt to reduce the Kremlin’s reactions towards this initiative. 

All in all, the developing Belarus-EU relations will be restrained by Belarus’ dependence on the Kremlin. Most of President Lukashenka’s opponents are ready at least not to hinder the strengthening Belarusan-European cooperation. However, the Belarusan government will not ease the domestic political climate ahead of the presidential campaign, despite some symbolic steps inter alia, the release of some political prisoners. 

Originally published at Solidarity with Belarus Information Office