Official Minsk hopes Warsaw’s support for Belarus’ opposition before 2015 president campaign weakens

Amid threats to regional stability due to military conflict in southeastern Ukraine, Belarusan authorities are hoping to break the deadlock in Belarusan-Polish relations.

Belarus’ Foreign Minister Makei and Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski met in Warsaw last week.

Until recently, Belarus believed that Poland was the main obstacle in normalizing relations with Brussels. Before the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine, President Lukashenka had repeatedly aggravated relations with Warsaw and portrayed it as an enemy, who wanted to “chop off Western Belarus”, thus shaping negative public opinion vis-à-vis Poland. In addition, the Belarusan state media has accused the Polish government of financing the Belarusan opposition and the "militants" who undermine the Belarusan stability. Despite repeated accusations against Warsaw for “attempts to overthrow the government”, official Minsk has never broken the bilateral relations.

Recently, however, the state media has not been attacking the Polish minority organisations in Belarus. The Belarusan authorities are not taking discriminatory actions against ethnic Poles, which could be badly perceived in Warsaw.

Since the mid-2000s, Warsaw’s harsh policy towards Minsk spurred the latter to step up pressure on Polish minority organisations in Belarus. The Belarusan authorities facilitated the split in the largest Polish minority organisation in the country –  the Union of Poles. Before the split, the Union of Poles was the largest NGO in Belarus with a good resource base, including real estate assets. 

In addition, the Polish-Belarusan agreement on small border traffic has also undergone a change. Amid deterioration in the Belarus-EU relations following mass protests in Minsk in December 2010, President Alexander Lukashenka spoke about political factors which hampered the implementation of the small border traffic agreement: “It’s not up to us. We have many questions for our Polish and Lithuanian counterparts – maybe they also have questions for us – first, political. As soon as we receive certain assurances from them and see their friendly policy, we will take decisions”. Meanwhile, Belarusan officials refer to technical problems with the implementation of the agreement on visa-free movement for those residing in bordering regions. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Guryanov said that, “in order to launch free movement, an appropriate environment, including infrastructure is needed”.

Some representatives of the Belarusan opposition have criticised the Polish Foreign Minister’s invitation to his Belarusan counterpart to visit Warsaw, as they fear that the West might reduce support for the Belarusan opposition in the 2015 presidential campaign.

Official Minsk aspires to reduce external support for the Belarusan opposition ahead of the 2015 presidential campaign. The authorities also hope for Warsaw’s assistance in the unconditional settlement of Belarusan-European relations.

Originally published at Solidarity with Belarus Information Office