Viktor Denisenko: All in Lithuania understand that it is Moscow that poses the threat, not Minsk

In case of Russia’s military aggression, Lithuania expects to hold out for a day before NATO forces come, hoping that real military support won’t be replaced by unreal “concern”.

How much did apprehensions of Russia’s military intervention grow in Lithuania in relation to the events in the Eastern Europe? And is Lithuanian regular army ready to confront that? These questions EuroBelarus Information Service asked Viktor Denisenko, one of the participants of the 4th International Congress of Belarusian Studies, political scientist from the Vilnius University:

Belarus is not perceived as a threat

- It should be marked that since the time of Crimea’s annexation apprehensions regarding insecurity were growing among Lithuanians to finally become their the first and foremost concern. Clearly, the context of discourse about safety mostly has to do with Russia; i.e. no one is saying that Belarus might attack Lithuania. However, no one is also saying that Belarus won’t attack Lithuania together with Russia. The question is what Belarusans would do if Russia attacks the Baltic States? Anyway, all in Lithuania understand that it is Moscow that poses the threat, not Minsk.

Hope for the 5^th article

However, the question of safety has become more important for Lithuania, as well as for the whole region – Latvia, Estonia, and Poland. The thing is that for a long time politicians in our country felt relaxed because of our participation in NATO. It was always emphasized that in case of a military threat we have the 5^th article of NATO Charter that regulates collective security, i.e. aggression against one country is aggression against all countries of NATO block.

On the other hand, Crimea’s annexation demonstrated that international agreements such as the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in 1994 that guaranteed territorial unity and safety to Ukraine (the Memorandum was signed by Ukraine, Russia, the US and Great Britain – “EuroBelarus”) are now ineffective. And that is when the question regarding the implementation of the 5^th article appears.

Apprehensions of “concern”

On the one hand, Lithuania, Poland, and Eastern European countries count on quick military support in case of military aggression; on the other – NATO might only express its “concern”, which set everyone’s teeth on edge already. So in case first NATO’s reaction would be “concern”, there appears a question of how long can Lithuania or Poland hold out against military aggression? Poland determined two days as its time frames. As for Lithuania, it would be great to hold out at least for a day. If, God forbid, something like that starts, I am sure that many Lithuanian citizens will take up arms without hesitation. The events of 1943-1952 demonstrated that people in this country are ready to defend themselves; and I think we didn’t lose this potential.

Besides, now Lithuania is starting to consider the problem of safety more seriously. Right now military budget is about to be increased by 30% and further, aiming at 2% of GDP.

A day to withstand and a night to hold out

However, there is no talking about the start of arms race – Russia and Lithuania or even Russia and Belarus can’t be compared, at least because population in Belarus is trice as high as in Lithuania. We also understand that the conflicts of this time are usually high technology conflicts, and this is the direction that Lithuanian is turning to. We also understand that it is military efficiency that is to be strengthened.