Belarus: Struggling with the same old problems

Mending relations with the West is pivotal for Belarus that still counts on economic aid and loans from IMF. It would help the economic situation before the election and lower dependence on Russia.

The European Union has once again extended sanctions against Belarus, motivated by a lack of progress on human rights and the presence of political prisoners. A few weeks ago, when the Belarusian president aspired to be the most important intermediary between Ukraine and Russia, Minsk hoped that this position would be softened.

Political profits for Lukashenka

The revolution in Ukraine had a direct impact on increasing public support for Aliaksandr Lukashenka. According to a recent Independent Institute for Socioeconomic and Political Studies (NISEPI) survey, 45.2 per cent of Belarusians are ready to vote for Lukashenka in the presidential election and 53.5 per cent trust him. Improvement of the Belarusian president’s ratings occurred despite the worsening economic situation (in August, compared to July, the level of salaries decreased). Moreover, the strength of the Belarusian president is favored by the weakness of the opposition. To a large extent this is obviously a result of the breakdown of the opposition’s structures after the presidential election in 2010 and the overall internal situation in the country, which is not conducive to independent initiatives.

On the other hand, the recent years have brought out all the weaknesses of an independent political scene as well as deep divisions and a hidden antipathy between the leaders and activists of various parties. Joint actions by opposition forces or working together on programmes (political, economic, social) for Belarus have also seemed nearly impossible. This bad atmosphere, combined with the general situation in the country, is not conducive to attracting young people who would be ready to actively work for independent parties. Thus, there is still an unused social potential (oscillating between 20 and 30 per cent) of people ready to support an opposition. Unfortunately, there is no indication that this situation would change.

The weakness of the opposition is very profitable for the authorities. It can therefore be assumed that Lukashenka will handily win the presidential elections planned for 2015. Nevertheless, the Belarusian authorities will not abandon their attempts to grossly overestimate support for the incumbent president, which will not allow the EU to recognise the results.

Belarusian social processes

Increased support for Lukashenka is not the only change in the Belarusians attitudes caused by conflictin Ukraine. According to the September NISEPI poll, 23 per cent of Belarusians support integration with Russia (comparing to 29.3 per cent in March), while 54.3 per cent against it is. At the same time, 50.3 per cent of the Belarusian population is against joining the EU (in December 2013 it was 34.6 per cent). There was almost a 26 per cent increase in the number of people ready to oppose any Russian armed aggression against Belarus and 40 per cent of Belarusians were against the deployment of new Russian military bases on Belarusian territory.

Even if it is difficult to foresee how durable these processes in the Belarusian society are, they can serve as an indicator for the future policy of the Belarusian authorities. Based on society’s expectations. They may try to, at least in theory, “Belarusify” Belarus by increasing the importance of the Belarusian language, changing historical policy by increasing the importance of the period of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania as a founding myth of Belarus, or make changes to the country's defence doctrine.

At the same time, other research highlights the poor condition of the Belarusian civil society. Research by the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) and the Centre for European Transformation showed a low level of solidarity and self-organisation among these institutions. Moreover, their work is just a part of the structure of the Belarusian political regime and these organizations do not consider the opposition politicians as leaders of opinion, which is almost synonymous with a lack of co-operation between the two environments. All this indicates that civil society organisations will not be a potential source of social and political change in Belarus anytime soon.

Belarus: between the West and Russia

The situation in Ukraine highlighted the geopolitical conundrum of Belarus as a country between Russia and the EU. Although Lukashenka engaged in solving the conflict in Donbas, this did not change the overall EU approach towards Belarus. Moreover, the Russian embargo on EU food products, which could lead to an increase of the importance of Belarus as a middleman between Russia and the EU, brought only an increase interest in Russian phytosanitary services to Belarus.

The dependence on Russia manifested in almost every field of politics, economy and the military and is becoming an increasing problem for Belarusian authorities. According to Russian experts, the annual Russian support for Belarus is around 10 billion US dollars (about 15 per cent of GDP). Moreover, it is Russia that still remains the only creditor to Belarus. In the end of September, governments of both countries signed another agreement according to which Minsk received a 15-year loan in the amount of $1.55 billion. However, it did not improve the condition of the foreign exchange reserves in Belarus, because it has been designed to repay the loan from the Russian bank VTB.

Cheap crude materials from Russia also play an important role in the Belarusian economy. Before the Belarusian parliament ratified the agreement on the accession of Belarus to the Eurasian Economic Union, the governments of Belarus and Russia had negotiated the conditions of purchasing Russian oil as well as the amount that the Belarusian side should pay for the Russian budget for oil products that were refined from that oil and then sold outside the Eurasian Economic Union. The authorities in Minsk feared that due to the so-called “petroleum tax manoeuvre” used by the Russians (at the same time reducing both export duties for oil and oil products and increasing fees for extraction of raw materials) Belarusian refineries would lose profits. The dispute ended with a solution that in 2015 Belarusians will be exempt from paying export duties for oil products to Russia, which means that the Belarusian budget will receive around $3-4 billion more. However, the agreement was signed only for 2015, which does not give the Belarusians a guarantee of obtaining adequate income in subsequent years. In recent weeks, the Russians also revived military cooperation within Belarus. It is not only about new bases for fighters, but also about a common defence system, as well as newly announced military exercises for 2015 called "Union Shield" – to be the most important battle-ready test for the Russian army.

Struggling to find an international balance, Belarusian authorities are trying to increase their contacts with western countries (in September Prime Minister Miasnikovich visited the United States). For now, however, the authorities’ main aim is to acquire western investment and credit, including the new stand-by programme from the International Monetary Fund in particular. At the same time the next stand-by programme will give the Belarusian authorities a chance to avoid further problems with foreign reserves before the 2015 election. However, the West is not eager to hand out loans as well as resume political co-operation. Considering the situation in Ukraine and Russia, Belarusians are starting to doubt if in 2020 (then the next presidential elections) they will be able to choose a Belarusian president.

All this shows that Belarus is still struggling with the same problems – both externally and internationally – a lack of political pluralism, structural economic problems and a growing dependence on Russia.

Originally published at New Eastern Europe