Ales Lahvinets: Belarusan authorities want to lead a dialog with the EU on their own terms

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Will the official Minsk take the first step to cancel visa regime with the EU, or will political prisoners stay in prison?

The authorities voice the cliché of “a constructive mutually profitable dialog”, but where is real use in it?

Abolition of visas between Belarus and the EU is possible, stated Edgar Rynkevich, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia. However, the first step for establishing visa-free regime should be the release of political prisoners before the Eastern Partnership Summit. Let us recall that the Summit is to take place on May 21-22 in Riga, as Latvia takes the presidency in the Council of Europe in 2015.

The Secretary of State of the Latvian Foreign Ministry Andrei Pildegovich confirmed Minister Rynkevich’s words that the release of political prisoners in Belarus is a key to the positive results in visa negotiations.

“We won’t review our stance on political prisoners. They have to release the three people mentioned earlier. We continue putting pressure on Belarus to speed up their release”, - informed Pildegovich.

However, the main question in liberalization of visa regime is whether the holders of diplomatic passports should be included in the first round of visa negotiations, told Juris Poikāns, one more Latvian diplomat responsible for the Eastern Partnership.

The Latvian Foreign Ministry also suggests that Belarus is willing to be present at the Summit in Riga at the highest level, by this meaning Lukashenka.

However, will our authorities make a step towards the EU to abolish the visa regime and why? “EuroBelarus” Information Service talked about it with the political scientist Ales Lahvinets.

 - Will Belarusan authorities take the terms of the EU on the threshold of the Eastern Partnership in Riga so that to finally get a chance for visa abolition for their citizens?

- Belarus might do that or not. It might happen so that before the summit it Riga the authorities will make up their mind and do that to get closer with the EU.

It is also known that there are hindrances for these negotiations, by this meaning the authorities’ insistence on including the holders of diplomatic passports to the list of those who will have visa-free entrance to the EU, although the European Commission doesn’t have a mandate for that. And that is also a formal reason for slowdown of negotiations.

We cannot also exclude the possibility that the authorities will go for it, as they might want to demonstrate the society that they do something in its interests.

- Your colleague, a political observer Raman Jakauleuski assumes that Belarusans won’t be able to travel to Europe without visas, as Lukashenka is not allowed to do that. Can you agree with the opinion that the main reason for the actions of the official Minsk is to cancel the black list of those restricted to travel abroad?

- It is hard to say. It is clear that the authorities are trying to stand up for their interests in these negotiations, and the list of those who can’t enter the EU is their problem and is a sore in their flash. Obviously, they want this list to be canceled. And of course, the authorities also want Lukashenka to be excluded from the list and invited to the Summit in Riga.

- The EU has always wanted to release political prisoners that are criminals in the eyes of the Belarusan authorities. What can change the situation to the benefit of the imprisoned and their relatives?

- You know, the authorities released the political prisoners when the political moment required doing so, without any additional solutions.

- Last week Edgar Rynkevich, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia said that new shifts in the relations with Belarus appeared and it is these shifts that might become a start for cancelation of visa regime with the EU. What shifts do you personally observe?

- As I understand, he was rather talking about the economic dynamic, which indeed appeared – at least Belarus didn’t join the sanctions Russia introduced against the EU countries.

- Did the official Minsk become more interested in improving its relations with the EU in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine?

- It looks so. But obviously, the authorities want to lead a dialog with the EU on their own terms. Their cliché of a “constructive mutually beneficial dialog” indicates that the authorities don’t want to chance anything within Belarus.