Pavel Usau: Belarus-Europe relations are experiencing déjà vu of 2008

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The chances for successful Belarus-Europe cooperation today are much less than it used to be 7 years ago: Belarus is stuck in integration processes with Russia too deep.

On March 19, 2015 Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus Alena Kupchina met with the delegation of high-ranking diplomats of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs from a number of the European Union member states – Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and Czech Republic. The parties discussed current issues of Belarus - EU interaction, including participation in the Eastern Partnership, preparation of the EaP Riga Summit, possible prospects of cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union as well as exchanged views on the issues of regional development.

The current meeting was the continuation of numerous European landing forces to Minsk that happened as far back as in late February – the beginning of March.

All Belarus-Europe contacts open a subject of Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga that is to take place on May 21-21. What is the official Minsk expecting from the forum?

His thoughts on the subject with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service shared political scientist Pavel Usau.

- What contents of negotiations between the official Minsk and European diplomats is hidden behind such insipid wording?

- I think that it’s no problem to outline general contents, it is familiar just too well as such questions are under discussion for the last 10 years. These are the prospects of bilateral cooperation, Belarus’ return to the Eastern Partnership, reanimation of the dialog and removal of sanctions, realization of reforms, and so on. The situation of 2008 is repeated.

As to the real prospects of these meetings the chances for success are dozens times less than 7 years ago: Belarus has stuck in integration processes with Russia too deep and Europe and the West on the whole hardly have mechanisms strong enough to pull Belarus out and protect its sovereignty. The main thing is that everyone understands that but continues imitating stormy activity. The only means to limit the dynamics of integration processes within the frames of the EEU is to enhance economic pressure and isolate Russia. But we know that the West is not ready for confrontation with Russia, which means that it isn’t ready to play the Belarusan card.

- Not Lukashenka, but Belarus will get an invitation to the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga. How can we decipher EU’s judgment worthy of Solomon: Is Belarus important for the system of European security, while Lukashenka is still persona non-grata?

At the same time Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs said that Belarus would decide for itself as to who will represent the country at the Summit in Riga. What if Lukashenka decides to appear before the European beau monde in person?

- I think that the European politicians will accept the guest. Judge for yourself: if the EU leaders are meeting with Putin, shake him by the hand, despite the fact that his policy has not only destroyed the European security system, but has also led to thousands of victims in Ukraine, murders of political opponents, and put the world on the verge of the global crisis, then why should it isolate Lukashenka, who looks as a minor wretch if compared with Putin?

If the West wants to be consistent in protecting its values it should demonstrate the same attitude to Putin as it demonstrated to Lukashenka. Otherwise, Lukashenka’s isolation looks very funny and feigned. Belarusan president is just used as a fig leaf for concealing moral disgrace and weakness in relation with the Russian regime.

- Both Lukashenka and Makei declare that “we are interested in the further participation in the “Eastern Partnership” initiative, whatever the attitude towards it will be”. What real interest does the official Minsk have?

- It’s an open secret that the best geopolitical state for the Belarusan regime is the balance between Russia and the EU. Of course, Minsk will be trying to restore balance and somehow compensate its obvious dependence on Russia. Although Eastern Partnership for Belarus should in no way be viewed as some counterbalance to Russian projects. All that Belarus can count on is the possibility of getting loans from the West.

- Edgars Rinkēvičs has called upon the Belarusan government to initiate the negotiations on concluding agreements between the EU and Belarus on liberalization of visa regimes and readmission of persons, as well as on signing the declaration on formation of the Partnership on Mobility between the EU and Belarus. The negotiations on these issues have been under way for many years, but things are right where they started. Will the Summit in Riga activate their resolution?

 - Bureaucracy and formalism is the main enemy of the geopolitical dynamics. If the EU had political will this issue could have been resolved unilaterally. Belarusan authorities are connecting visa liberalization with the sanction list, thus blackmailing Europe with the benefits of its own citizens.

I think that the first and foremost task of the Belarusan authorities will be the removal of political and economic sanctions, all the other are the sideline questions. We need to realize that the Belarusan regime is hardly concerned with the freedom of movement of citizens or the country’s sovereignty, as over the last years Belarusan authorities put much effort in order to make real the threat of losing sovereignty.