Piotr Kuzniatsou: Belarus in Eastern Partnership can now count only on the position of an outsider

Official Minsk stands for its exclusive right for presenting Belarus at the international arena, but Europe today isn’t ready to let Belarusan authorities push it around.

On March 17-18 in Yerevan the IV Plenary Session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Eastern Partnership (EURONEST) took place, where representatives of Belarusan political opposition and civil society were also present. One of the participants of the Forum – Piotr Kuzniatsou, the founder of the “Centre for Regional Development “Homel Democratic Forum”, summed up the results of the Session in the interview with the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- It was for the first time that the delegation of Belarusan opposition and civil society organizations took place in the IV Plenary Session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Eastern Partnership (EURONEST) in Yerevan. Why is this event so important for Belarus, or, rather, for the opposition and Belarusan civil society?

- I would define the importance of this event within two dimensions and this importance is very big today.

Firstly, the appearance of the Belarusan opposition and civil society representatives at EURONEST has basically coincided with the start of the consultations’ process that the EU has launched in order to adjust its neighborhood policy. Possibility to voice one’s stances at the representative political event is a good chance to influence the situation.

Secondly, we need to note the following. EURONEST has been having a discussion about Belarus’ representation in this organ: the country is a member of the EaP, but there are contradictions that are caused by the illegitimacy of the Belarusan Parliament. The best variant would be to provide for the participation of both the parliamentarians and opposition; however, Belarus has specified its stance absolutely clearly: the official Minsk is against the presence of democratic forces and exclusively for its right to present Belarus at the international arena. Since this stance doesn’t find understanding, the House of Representatives doesn’t send its representatives there, and the question is basically frozen.

The fact that this year EURONEST invited very representative delegation of the Belarusan opposition from 7 largest democratic parties and a civil society representative got a chance to speak is a good signal that means that Europe today isn’t ready to let Belarusan authorities push it around and neglect the interests of the society for their sake.

- The EU Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn with satisfaction noted “very clear position of Belarus on Ukraine”. How is this clear position affecting Belarus’ European perspective?

- All that is about tactics, not strategy. In the short-term perspective it might mean temporary thaw of relations and certain movement towards each other. Belarus is important both for Ukraine and the EU as Kremlin’s ally that doesn’t share Moscow’s stance completely. That is why such stance of the official Minsk will, of course, cause satisfaction, and in order to make it be the same it will be somehow rewarded.

However, in the long-term perspective it doesn’t mean anything: Belarus will get no European perspectives until the authorities with participation of society take the way of consistent reforms. If under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis and Crimea’s factor the process of bilateral movement towards each other will be going on, then when the importance of this factor starts decreasing the kickback is inevitable, as none of the institutional reasons of contradictions between Belarus and the EU is eliminated. Belarusan side is willing to play its own game on uneasy geopolitical situation, whereas the EU is temporarily interested in Belarus, and might play into Belarus’ hand.

- At the Forum the following thought was voiced quite clearly: cooperation with the official Minsk is an investment in strengthening Belarus’ sovereignty. How far can EURONEST go in cooperation with the official Minsk?

- EURONEST, as well as the EU in general will be trying to find the best variant that would let it launch the process of reforms in Belarus – in its current state Belarus as the partner of Europe cannot be considered. That is why even if EURONEST starts some cooperation with the official Minsk, it can’t be too close.

Everyone is well aware of two things. On the one hand, Belarus is highly dependent on Russia, so at least two factors threaten its sovereignty today: moods in Kremlin and presence or absence of aspirations to Belarus’ annexation. And the second factor is economic situation: Belarus follows Moscow and is getting lost in the abyss of economic chaos.

The EU is interested in the independent Belarus, and that is why certain support at this stage is possible both in the political field and in the economic sphere.

But at the same time everyone understands another factor: Lukashenka is interested in Belarus’ independence more than the EU, and that is why either with it or without it, Lukashenka will do everything to keep independence even if only political or symbolical.

In this relation, no one will go too far: certain support will be provided, but anyone will hardly want to solve Lukashenka’s problems. The golden mean will be looked for instead: Belarus will be taking care of its independence, and the EU will help it within its powers, which will be limited by Lukashenka’s desire to start modernization and introduce reforms, thus approaching EU’s standards.

- The EU is aimed at encouraging the countries of the EU that want closer integration with the EU. Belarus, where the authorities on the eve of the presidential campaign are in the geopolitical saddle, is among the outsiders. What can Belarus count at today?

- Only at remaining among the outsiders. Encouragement is happening and will be happening in accordance with the principle “more for more”, i.e. this process is progressive: the country is reforming some sphere to a certain degree, gets some bonus for development, after that takes a way of reforms, and thus, both the bonuses and the reforms are gradually and progressively growing.

Belarus won’t be changing its course, at least before the president election; i.e. it won’t move anywhere from the zero-point, and nobody is really expecting that. I.e. we also shouldn’t be expecting some significant change of format.