Uladzimir Matskevich: Russia cannot venture an unpunished escalation of conflict in Ukraine

Non-fulfillment of Minsk agreements causes enhancement of sanctions against Russia

Russia informed the EU about a “black list” of EU officials, who are denied entry to the country. Russian Foreign Ministry named it a reciprocal step to the EU actions.

Why Russia has suddenly needed to introduce “black lists”? Is Moscow ready to aggravate relations with the EU? How will West react to the Kremlin’s actions?

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus “, shared his point of view with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- Russia has introduced “black list” against EU officials and named it “Russian answer to sanctions”. However, “answer to sanctions” came too late; EU’s version looks more likely – non-desire to regulate crisis in Donbas. Why does Kremlin need another aggravation?

- Putin continues playing in superpower Russia and tries to pretend giving a symmetrical answer to the West. It looks rather ridiculous for an unbiased observer, since there is neither symmetry in these actions nor similar reasons for denying EU officials to enter Russia.

- By results of check at five fish-processing enterprises in Latvia and Estonia Russia introduced ban on import of fish products from both the countries. Why does Moscow need activation of economic war with the EU, and why it is these countries in particular?

- The same game in symmetrical answer is continuing. Sanctions against Russia strongly complicate the life of Russians, who are deprived import commodities. Even if Russian program of import substitution might work, it only can happen in the long-term perspective.

As to the ban on import of fish products from Estonia and Latvia, Russia has been taking similar measures against Moldavian and Georgian wine earlier, which always opens unlimited possibilities for black market and smuggling.

- Experts relate stabilization of Russian ruble with the freezing of hostilities at Donbas. Renovation of hostilities at Donbas will again affect Russian economy. What Kremlin is trying to achieve by aggravating its relations with the EU?

- We shouldn’t look upon Russia’s actions as upon the step towards aggravation of relations with the EU. The actions are directed at internal Russian consumer for propaganda as if Russia can equally respond to Western sanctions. There is no aggravation as such since the West cannot get frightened with such actions; Russia is quite a big market for European import, but not a critical one. Such Russia’s actions cannot undermine European economy. And the reaction of Europe and European politicians is rather ironical than serious.

- Washington has announced that it is ready to raise the issue of increasing anti-Russian sanctions at the G7 Summit. Vice President of the United States Joseph Biden stated that the only way to overcome crisis in Ukraine is to deescalate the conflict; otherwise sanctions will remain in force and, moreover, Ukraine might get weapons. How likely is the possibility that the economic sanctions against Russia will be expanded?

- I don’t think that enhancement of anti-Russian sanctions is inevitable: fulfillment of Minsk agreements on Donbas can’t last forever. It is the gunmen at Donbas who prolong the fulfillment of Minsk agreements, thus violating the truce. Donetsk and Lugansk administrations also abstain from fulfilling the responsibilities they took upon themselves. Then there is Russia that is also in no hurry with fulfilling these obligations.

Non-fulfillment of Minsk agreements causes tougher sanctions; it is quite sensible and logical.

- A lot of experts have been forecasting aggravation of situation at Donbas this summer. Is Russia starting a new wave of war?

- As the developments show, for now the aggravation of hostilities at Donbas and Mariupol isn’t happening. It has to do with the fact that sanctions allocated by the EU and the US have finally become perceivable in Russia, and Russia cannot afford an unpunished escalation of conflict. I think that experts who have been forecasting aggravation of situation at Donbas this summer were also aware that their forecasts don’t necessarily need to come true; they have been merely reminding about the need of vigilance and alarm. Such reminders are topical even now, eve though the possibility of escalation of conflict is decreasing.