Wednesday 26 June 2019 | 18:47

Andrei Yahorau: Russia will inevitably allocate a loan to Belarus

27.02.2016  |  Politics   |  Aliaksei Jurych,  EuroBelarus
Andrei Yahorau: Russia will inevitably allocate a loan to Belarus photo by Dmitry Brushko, TUT.by

Russia can’t leave Belarus without support unless it wants to completely lose it, even if only in the status of a symbolic ally.

Belarus-Russia Union's Supreme State Council session in Minsk of February 25 was tedious, uninteresting, and lacked loud statements.

Belarus head Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Russia President Vladimir Putin, PM Andrei Kabiakou and Dmitry Medvedev, and ministers took part in the session.

13 documents were signed by results of the session. Among them is the Union State Budget for 2016, the decree “On planning on the development and application of the regional army group created within the Union State of Belarus and Russia”.

Before the Supreme State Council session Putin and Lukashenka met tête-à-tête.

Belarus Minister of Defense Andrei Raukou by results of negotiations announced that the Supreme State Council didn’t discuss the question of the Russian airbase and loan for the official Minsk. And the secretary of the Union State of Russia and Belarus Grigory Rapota informed that the issue of allocating financial aid to Belarus wasn’t discussed either. However, he didn’t exclude the possibility that the parties could have discussed it behind the scenes.

Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Center for European Transformation, commented upon the results of the Belarus-Russia Union's Supreme State Council session in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- It was announced by results of the negotiations that the Supreme State Council didn’t discuss the question of the Russian airbase and loan for the official Minsk. Is it true?

- Naturally, the question of the Russian airbase was discussed, and the Russian loan is one of the major discussing points between the heads of states. It’s hard to say what the negotiations ended with. If their results haven’t been made public, it means that the final decision hasn’t been made yet and the bargaining continues. Otherwise the results of the negotiations would have been announced publicly.

- The issue of locating a Russian airbase in Belarus and the Russian loan to the official Minsk are interrelated. Is Russia ready to allocate a loan to its ally?

- Russia will inevitably allocate a loan to Belarus, its only geopolitical ally in the West. Even if Belarus doesn’t do anything for establishing the Russian airbase, Russia will still give it. The question is about the conditions of the loan. Russia cannot leave Belarus without support unless it wants to completely lose it, even if only in the status of a symbolic ally.

- How seriously is Russia forcing through the formation of an airbase in Belarus now?

- I think that the airbase isn’t the key issue for Russia. Of course, Moscow is putting pressure on the official Minsk, but this pressure can hardly be called excessive.

- Could the heads of state resolve the issue with the airbase within the frames of the signed decree “On planning on the development and application of the regional army group created within the Union State of Belarus and Russia”?

- No. All the agreements on the airbase should be asserted by the Belarus president and agreed on by the Parliament, which, in our case, still depends on the decision of the head of state. The procedure cannot be avoided.

- 13 documents were signed by results of the session. What conclusions can be made by results of the Supreme State Council session?

- The results of the session are hard to comment on. I, personally, can’t predict which direction the development of the bilateral relations will go after the Supreme State Council session.

Other news section «Politics»

Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
The Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarusan media and the detention of journalists.
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
The Belarusan National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum issued a statement on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia.
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
On September 11, the inaugural „Vilnius Consultations“ conference was organized by Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis and Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
Poland and Germany were both initiators and drivers of a New Eastern policy linked to the Eastern neighborhood and Russia/Soviet Union.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Not only does the "Union State" undermine the establishment of civilized relations with Europe, but it hinders the possibility of normal relations between Belarus and Russia.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
The authorities are unable to prolong the social contract with the people: there is no way out of the social crisis.
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF welcomes the dialogue process in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group, the third round of which was held in Minsk on 3-4 April 2017.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan cities.
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
The EaP CSF Steering Committee issued a statement on repressions against civil society activists and journalists in Belarus, in view of the demonstrations planned on 25 March 2017.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
"Case of Zhadan" demonstrated that Belarus does not actually have a clear policy - neither domestic nor foreign.
Belarus
Belarus's Lukashenko alleges “fifth column” plot as unrest continues
Belarusan President Lukashenko said on Tuesday a “fifth column” was plotting to overthrow him with the help of foreign-backed fighters, days before a planned street protest in Minsk against a new tax.
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
The relationship between Russia and Belarus has never been an easy one.
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
The Belarusian regime is not able to pursue a truly multi-vector policy, and the EU cannot decide what it needs in the region on the whole and from Belarus in particular.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
But even under the circumstances the authorities have various ways out.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
But Lukashenka is afraid for his fate and position - he needs Belarus to be sovereign to fully exercise his power.
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
There should be no actual passport control for the Belarusians arriving in Russia within the framework of the existing Belarusian-Russian agreements.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
It is a process of normalization of Belarus-EU relations. Belarus just fulfils its international commitments.
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Political analyst emphasizes that Belarus is the first modern authoritarianism in the European space, a phenomenon not yet studied by anyone.
Andrei Parotnikau: Russia will return to the issue of an air base in Belarus
Andrei Parotnikau: Russia will return to the issue of an air base in Belarus
However the military base is only image-building for the Kremlin and has no practical use.
Gintautas Mažeikis: The relation of political field and arena in the framework of information war

In his report, philosopher Gintautas Mažeikis discusses several concepts that have been a part of the European social and philosophical thought for quite a time.

“It is our big joint work”

It is impossible to change life in cities just in three years (the timeline of the “Agenda 50” campaign implementation). But changing the structure of relationships in local communities is possible.

Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf

Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.

Mikhail Matskevich: How to create a local agenda and make it a problem solving tool

To achieve changes, you need to be interested in them and stop pinning all hopes on the state.