Friday 22 November 2024 | 10:12

Andrei Parotnikau: Russia will return to the issue of an air base in Belarus

06.01.2017  |  Politics   |  Piotr Kuchta,  EuroBelarus
Andrei Parotnikau: Russia will return to the issue of an air base in Belarus Photo: rt.com

However the military base is only image-building for the Kremlin and has no practical use.

Andrei Parotnikau, the founder and the coordinator of the analytical project Belarus Security Blog notes in his interview with the "EuroBelarus" Information Service that the expert assessment of the main political campaign of the year, i.e. parliamentary elections, did not prove true. "The elections were very quiet, - said Andrei Parotnikau. – There were no obvious threats to the regime in 2016, the year was quite stable."

Nevertheless, according to the analyst, "despite all the loud statements it is impossible to say we achieved a full restoration of relations with the West. NATO still does not see Belarus as a partner, which became very obvious when Belarus did not get an invitation to the NATO summit in Warsaw, - underlined Andrei Parotnikau. - NATO is, primarily, USA. And the Belarusian authorities so far fail to convince the White House that Minsk is a worthy partner for cooperation, interaction and dialogue."

The analyst mentioned that, unfortunately, Belarus has missed a good opportunity to further improve relations with Ukraine: "Another shameful moment in UN when Belarus voted against the resolution initiated by Ukraine on human rights violations in the occupied Crimea very clearly demonstrates that Belarus is not a reliable partner for Kiev. We do not know the whole story and it is quite possible that the cooling of the relations or the disappointment of Ukraine was preceded by a disappointment of Minsk: there was an unrealized production project at an aircraft repair plant. The project was important and promising for Belarus."

As for 2017, Andrei Parotnikau believes that the Belarusian opposition will have a "very narrow field of possibilities." "In addition to the internal problems, external partners are disappointed with the actions of the opposition, they openly state that the Belarusian politicians have lost too many chances. Thus, we can expect the opponents of the regime to have scarce resources in 2017”.

The analyst highlighted the likelihood of the Kremlin's return to the issue of placing a military air base in Belarus and expanding its military presence. "We should not forget that Russia holds presidential elections in 2018. And Putin does not have that many assets to use during the campaign. – Parotnikau believes. - But from a practical point of view, Russia has no burning reason for military cooperation with Belarus. Regarding the unified air defense system, after implementing the S-400 missile systems Russia can monitor the situation in the airspace over Belarus from its own territory."

"I am convinced that the issue of the Russian military base is a pure image-building, a political issue. Moscow wants to show that Belarus is the zone of Russian influence and that others have nothing to do here", - explained Andrei Parotnikau.

The analyst is sure the information attacks on Belarus will escalate in 2017, "but there is neither system nor conspiracy against Belarus." "Russia is not pleased with Minsk’s position about Ukraine, at the same time the volume of resources available to Russia reduced sharply because of the crisis, but Belarus, as usual, keeps asking for help. Therefore, Russia is of course irritated by the behavior of Minsk", - showed Andrei Parotnikau.

As for the Belarus-EU relations, "the Belarusian authorities have no intention to join Europe, all of this is just rhetoric to expand the field for a political maneuver and an opportunity to receive additional financial resources as well as to reach European markets with the Belarusian products. It must be noted that Europe also very clearly sees the situation. Moreover, the EU has no time to deal with Belarus given the numerous internal and external problems."

Other news section «Politics»

Andrei Yahorau — Al Jazeera: “Lukashenko is irresponsible”
Andrei Yahorau — Al Jazeera: “Lukashenko is irresponsible”
He said Belarus would likely face economic tightening not only as a result of the coronavirus pandemic but also a Russian trade oil crisis that worsened this past winter.
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf
Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
Statement of the BNP in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarus
The Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarusan media and the detention of journalists.
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
Statement of the Belarusan EaP CSF National Platform on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia
The Belarusan National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum issued a statement on solidarity with the civil society of Armenia.
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
"Vilnius Consultations": Key points and recommendations on the future of EU Eastern Partnership
On September 11, the inaugural „Vilnius Consultations“ conference was organized by Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis and Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
From farewell to a new Eastern policy and towards a new development
Poland and Germany were both initiators and drivers of a New Eastern policy linked to the Eastern neighborhood and Russia/Soviet Union.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: The sooner the "Union State" is denounced, the better for Belarus
Not only does the "Union State" undermine the establishment of civilized relations with Europe, but it hinders the possibility of normal relations between Belarus and Russia.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
Uladzimir Matskevich: The regime can no longer control the situation in the country
The authorities are unable to prolong the social contract with the people: there is no way out of the social crisis.
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Press release in connection with the dialogue in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF welcomes the dialogue process in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group, the third round of which was held in Minsk on 3-4 April 2017.
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Statement of the BNP in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the events of March 25-26, 2017 in Minsk and other Belarusan cities.
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
Statement by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum on mass repressions in Belarus
The EaP CSF Steering Committee issued a statement on repressions against civil society activists and journalists in Belarus, in view of the demonstrations planned on 25 March 2017.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
Uladzimir Matskevich: Belarus-Ukraine relations need to be re-established
"Case of Zhadan" demonstrated that Belarus does not actually have a clear policy - neither domestic nor foreign.
Belarus
Belarus's Lukashenko alleges “fifth column” plot as unrest continues
Belarusan President Lukashenko said on Tuesday a “fifth column” was plotting to overthrow him with the help of foreign-backed fighters, days before a planned street protest in Minsk against a new tax.
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
In Belarus, a rising fear: Will we be the next Ukraine?
The relationship between Russia and Belarus has never been an easy one.
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
Andrei Yahorau: European window of opportunity is slowly closing, relations take form of fatigue
The Belarusian regime is not able to pursue a truly multi-vector policy, and the EU cannot decide what it needs in the region on the whole and from Belarus in particular.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
Uladzimir Matskevich: Today Belarus is in a very difficult situation
But even under the circumstances the authorities have various ways out.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
Uladzimir Matskevich: Lukashenka does not disrupt Russian plans to annex Belarus
But Lukashenka is afraid for his fate and position - he needs Belarus to be sovereign to fully exercise his power.
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
Andrei Yeliseyeu: Russia is taking drastic unconstructive steps  
There should be no actual passport control for the Belarusians arriving in Russia within the framework of the existing Belarusian-Russian agreements.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
Uladzimir Matskevich: Visa-free regime is not a political concession to the West
It is a process of normalization of Belarus-EU relations. Belarus just fulfils its international commitments.
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Andrei Yahorau: Belarusian regime is self-improving, the only threat so far is the economy crisis
Political analyst emphasizes that Belarus is the first modern authoritarianism in the European space, a phenomenon not yet studied by anyone.
Gintautas Mažeikis: The relation of political field and arena in the framework of information war

In his report, philosopher Gintautas Mažeikis discusses several concepts that have been a part of the European social and philosophical thought for quite a time.

“It is our big joint work”

It is impossible to change life in cities just in three years (the timeline of the “Agenda 50” campaign implementation). But changing the structure of relationships in local communities is possible.

Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf

Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.

Mikhail Matskevich: How to create a local agenda and make it a problem solving tool

To achieve changes, you need to be interested in them and stop pinning all hopes on the state.