Siarhei Chaly: Backlash of the wage rise will come already next year

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Consequences of the artificial wage overvaluation before the parliamentary elections will come in 4-7 months.

 Economist Siarhei Chaly stated in the interview to the EuroBelarus Information service that “Backlash of such policies come not immediately”.

“Currently, while a floating exchange rate will remain, any attempts to increase the income of people over the level they’ve really earned, will lead to exchange rate correction within the time lag from 4 to 7 months”, told Siarhei Chaly.

“And then in dollar equivalent which is so much liked by our authorities, the income will sink to the same level or even lower, as the inflation will also take place”, the economist described the tendency, already familiar to Belarusans.

The expert drew attention to the fact that the authorities have already announced the rate tariff rise starting from September. “They also realize that there is an issue of the time lag. So they will be able to make a successful report in the end of the year, while all possible nasty things will come only in the first quarter of the next year”, explained Siarhei Chaly the authorities’ motivation.

Herewith, the expert estimates the chance of resignation the cabinet of Mikhail Myasnikovich as very small one. “Even if there was some dissatisfaction of the President with the Prime Minister, it was quite a long time ago, when a certain reformers’ team was under the protection of the latter, if it is appropriate talking about reforms in our circumstances”, reminded the economist.

“But Myasnikovich has recently become more conservative. He has a wide experience of state machinery work and knows quite well what he needs to do for his political survival”, supposes Siarhei Chaly.

According to the expert, it is, besides, not a very appropriate time for resignation of the cabinet. “Logically, the authorities should have changed the cabinet before; otherwise, they will have to postpone this for quite a long time. Now there is a discussion of the plans for the next year and for the period up to 2015, which is the deadline for implementation of the “resolutions of the fourth All-Belarusan assembly”. It would be silly to make plans with one cabinet composition, and to implement them with another one”, explained Siarhei Chaly.