Aleh Manaeu:Authorities haven’t been bridging the gap between Belarusans for 18 years

Under conditions of the deeply polarized society the vision of the nearest future of Belarus seems to be not that optimistic, while the distant future is very blurred.

This information was shared by the EHU professor and noted sociologist Aleh Manaeu during the public lecture “Belarusan future as the projection of the present” that took place within the “Urbi et Orbi” lecture circuit represented by the Flying University.

At the beginning of his statement Aleh Manaeu noted that there are two major mainstream visions of the future in Belarus. The chief drawback of both of them is the fact that they do not account for the current condition of the Belarusan society. First vision is based on the Soviet past and is predominantly supported by the state authorities. Second model, which is suggested by the majority of opposition, dates back to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Belarusan National Republic (BNR) history.

“I am convinced that such approaches not so much clarify as pervert the actual perspectives for the future of Belarus, - noted the sociologist. – Of course, the past should also be taken into account, as we cannot build the future without it. But still, the future has to be interpreted as projection of the present”.

What does uniqueness mean for Belarus?

The professor stated five main characteristics of the Belarusan society, which cannot be ignored while making prognosis of the country’s future. These are the step-by-step saying “goodbye” to the Soviet Union past, the ascending split of the society on social and political issues, the change of the social structure, the incompleteness of the national identity making and geopolitical ambivalence.

Talking about the future plans, Aleh Manaeu turned to the book “The Future of Belarus. Sight independent experts”, published by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) in 2012. The sociologist noted, that in the near-term outlook (of about 3-5 years), the vision of the future looks not that attractive: the formation of Belarusan national identity remains unfinished; the state continues dominating over the society, while the Eastern vector of foreign policy dominates over the Western one.

At the same time, in the more distant future (of about 10-20 years) there are opportunities for realization of lots of different scenarios – from finishing the creation of nation to its complete split, from entry into the EU to the capture by Russia, from establishing the democracy up to the enforcement of authoritarianism. Aleh Manaeu highlighted that such spread of scenarios is typical for Belarus only and is impossible for the majority of our neighbors, except, to a certain degree, Ukraine.

“The uniqueness of Belarusan society (from the point of the inner split, too) lies in the fact that we have social base and political forces for realization of contrary scenarios and prognoses”, - he said.

Overcoming the split instead of moving to ghetto

In order for one from the political or social forces to realize its scenario successfully it should take into consideration the real mood existing in the society today, assumes Aleh Manaeu. “If we talk about changes in the society, about projecting the past and the present to the future, then we should catch up with the society. Only then can we account on the participation in the building of the future”, - he said.

The work of overcoming the split is of no less importance for him: “The biggest damage that these authorities have done for all these 18 years consists in neglect of the value split that is rooted deeply into the history and culture of the Belarusan nation”.