Climatic pledges are not enough to prevent the earth from heating

The Paris Climate Change Conference has finished. Belarus undertook obligation not to exceed the percentage of emissions, which we have not even reached yet.

According to the final agreement adopted on the Conference, its countries-participants are to cut greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperature increase "well below" 2C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. The “EuroBelarus” Information Service went to a meeting with Belarusan participants of the conference and found out the results of international negotiations, as well as which stance our country takes on climate change.

- There is a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, before it the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. It regulated the obligations to reduce emissions that all countries took upon themselves. However, period of validity for this protocol expires in 2020, and it should be replaced with something, - said Nastassia Bekish, climate policy consultant at Green Network. - Only 40 developed rich countries had obligations to reduce emissions in the Kyoto Protocol. Whereas according to the new agreement almost all the nations of the world – 180 countries – have provided plans to reduce emissions and to adapt to them.

The thing is that during the creation of the convention and the protocol it were these rich northern countries that used to be the leaders by emissions. However, the world has changed, and now more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions falls to the share of developing countries – China, India, and others. So this year the countries presented their plans to reduce emissions from 2020 to 2030 and how they are going to adapt to the pollution that already exist.

- If we do nothing today, by the end of the century the planet's temperature will rise by 4 ° C or by 5 ° C in the worst conditions. This will have a huge impact on the way the world works. To avoid this, it is necessary to limit emissions. Scientists have estimated that the safe limit will be 2 ° C, and even 1,5 ° C in some countries, - explained Anastasia Bekish.

In order to cut emissions, we should considerably change the world energy system. For that, the humanity should considerably lower the use of fossil fuel till the middle of this century. We need to give up oil, gas, coal, and switch to renewable energy sources. Apart from that, we should apply energy efficiency measures in industry, change technology, and even markets.

- National programs are not the part of the new agreement – the countries provide them independently; respectively, no one can monitor their implementation. But we hope that they will still be carried out; otherwise it will be a severe blow to the country’s image, - a consultant on climate policy notes.

However, the fact that the agreement is adopted doesn’t mean its ratification yet. The procedure of its signing by the world countries will begin on April 22, 2016. After that comes the period of ratification, and before 2020 the agreement should enter into force.

Alexandre Grebenkov, the leader of the UNDP GEF “Energy Efficiency in Residential Buildings” project, specified that there still exists certain control for the countries in the new protocol.

- Each two years, the country must report on how they are going to fulfill their pledges as well as review them every five years. I must admit that this will be a very difficult job, and I have doubts that the Ministry of Natural Resources will close the question with the help of one or two people, - Alexandre Grebenkov believes.

According to him, Belarus is obliged not to exceed the amount of 72% of harmful emissions from the level of 1990. It is noteworthy that now the figure is 67%. It turns out that by 2030 our country will increase rather than reduce emissions. Alexandre Grebenkov attributes this discrepancy to the industrial development.

- Since 1995 our GDP has grown by almost 5 times after the recession, while emissions have been growing at a rate of about 0.4% per year. Forecasts show that we haven’t reached the peak yet. We still lack infrastructure, knowledge, and technology.

But at the same time, says the expert, it is beneficial for Belarus to reduce emissions and switch to renewable energy sources, even if to stop being dependent on Russian gas.

It is noteworthy even China hasn’t reached its peak on harmful emissions – in China the amount of emissions is still rising. America now demonstrates clear reduction.

However, even the most optimistic forecasts of obligations provided by the countries are not enough to set the maximum temperature rise to 2 ° C.