Saturday 23 November 2024 | 21:16

Belarus rather risks its relations with Armenia than supports Russia’s growing role in the region

14.04.2016  |  In the World   |  Aliaksandr Filipau, BelarusDigest,  
Belarus rather risks its relations with Armenia than supports Russia’s growing role in the region hayduk.info

About two weeks ago, on April 2, intensive clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh happened. Belarus’ reaction to it left Armenia deeply bewildered.

The same day Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenka ordered the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Foreign Relations to start consultations with their Armenian and Azerbaijan colleagues.

Moreover, the Belarusian leader held telephone conversations with Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev and Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan. In spite of Belarus’ membership of the OSCE Minsk group, which has been the only more or less active platform for negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since 1992, this reaction of the Belarusian authorities demonstrates their deeper interests and concerns about the situation.

Lukashenka’s interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Some experts consider Belarusian activities in the current conflict as a continuation of Lukashenka’s policy to transform Belarus into a kind of regional Switzerland that provides a reliable platform for solving regional and even global issues.

However, the Ukrainian case remains the only example of relative active Belarusian participation in the process of conflict resolution. Other recent initiatives, including statements to promote Minsk as a place to resolve the Middle Eastern conflict, look extremely odd and ambitious for a country such as Belarus.

Nevertheless, Lukashenka’s interest to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is much older than the Ukrainian war. In November 2009 the Belarusian president rather unexpectedly made several statements on this issue, emphasizing Belarusian interests in engaging to resolve other conflicts in the post-Soviet space.

There are permanent rumours within the Belarusian establishment that the main reason for Lukashenka’s peace initiatives was the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to US president Barack Obama in October 2009. Lukashenka is rumoured to have given orders to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to “win” the Nobel Peace Prize for him.

However, the apparent lack of Belarusian capacity to influence the process, deteriorating relations with the West after the presidential elections in December 2010, the economic crisis of 2011 and Lukashenka's receipt of the parody Ig Peace Nobel Prize in 2013 definitely cooled the president's ambitions.

One might claim that Belarus' more or less successful experience in conflict resolution in the case of Ukraine and recent improvements in relations between Belarus and the West give Lukashenka a new chance to pursue his “peacekeeper” position in the region, regardless of the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the year 2016 differs from the year 2009.

Belarus’ interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

In January 2015 Armenia officially jointed the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) free trade bloc. The absence of a common border between Armenia and the other EEU member states seems non-conducive for economic integration and has caused numerous concerns in Belarus and Kazakhstan.

The president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbaev has expressed these concerns clearly, pointing out the unclear status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the EEU. Belarus refrained from making direct statements on this issue, but the Belarusian authorities have joined their colleagues from Kazakhstan in discussing this issue at a number of working meetings.

The governments of Belarus and Kazakhstan believe that Armenia will play the role of 100% Russian ally in the EEU management and policy-making, and will promote the idea of transforming the EEU from an economic union into a politically and militarily integrated entity.

Armenia considers Nagorno-Karabakh a key issue for its own national survival. No Armenian politician admits even the theoretical possibility of returning Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Armenian officials, as well as society in general, completely understand the growing gap between the military capacities of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s economic vulnerability compared to Azerbaijan, its full dependence on arms supplies from Russia and Russia’s key influence on the dynamics of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

According to some estimates, the military budget of Azerbaijan exceeds Armenia’s military budget eight to nine times. Russia has supplied weapons to Azerbaijan worth a total of about $5bn, while to Armenia supplies totaled only about $400m (however, such a comparison should take into consideration lower prices for Armenia).

In this context, official Yerevan is seeking ways to secure sustainable and incontrovertible Russia’s support for the Armenian position in the conflict. Russia’s intentions to promote deeper integration, including furthering political and military rapprochement, match Armenia’s goals. Since Armenia joined the EEU, Russia has strengthened its forces at the Erebuni military airbase and has intensified the integration of the Armenian air defence forces into the Russian air defense system.

Unfortunately, these intentions contradict the interests of Belarus and Kazakhstan, who would like to preserve the purely economic character of the EEU. Both governments understand that Russia and Armenia could use the current clashes as a precedent to strengthen the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and / or further deeper integration within the framework of the EEU.

The current Nagorno-Karabakh clashes in the context of Belarusian foreign policy

Belarus’ positions on the current clashes appears to be one of the most critical towards Armenia. While Kazakhstan has called for an immediate ceasefire and a solely peaceful solution of the conflict, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called for strengthening the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

This fact demonstrates Belarus’ deep concerns about the “politisation” of the current clashes. The issue of the Russian airbase in Belarus, which has still not been officially removed from agenda, sparks these concerns. Even Kazakhstan, which has directly supported the position of Azerbaijan in recent years, has not risked mentioning the principle of territorial integrity.

Until April 2016, Belarus maintained close political and economic cooperation with both main parties of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as well as a balance between respecting the positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Baku’s financial support for Belarus during the gas conflict with Russia in 2010, as well as close personal relations between Lukashenka and Aliyev, are no secret.

Despite Azerbaijan’s more significant economic importance for Belarus (both in terms of goods turnover and trade balance), the Belarusian authorities have managed to maintain close relations with a part of the Armenian political and economic elite, in particular with businessman and politician Gagik Tsarukyan.

The Armenian authorities reacted immediately. The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded on 3 April explanations from the Belarus Ambassador to Armenia, emphasising its deep bewilderment because of Belarus’ position.

Whether Armenia will forget Belarus' calls for “territorial integrity” and be satisfied with the Belarusian ambassador’s explanations remain under question.

Risking relations with Armenia

Neither party in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict expected Belarus’ support in the current clashes, nor do they need it. However, Belarus understands that these clashes have a far less local character than they would have several years ago.

Belarus’ direct engagement in deeper military and political integration with Russia has become increasingly unavoidable, while it completely contradicts the authorities’ intentions. Only an immediate ceasefire and return of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict into a “frozen” one can prevent Belarus from a clear withdrawal from further Russian initiatives such as the long-planned airbase in Belarus.

It seems that Belarus is more ready to risk its relations with Armenia than to support de-facto strengthening of Russia’s role in the region.

Originally published at BelarusDigest

Other news section «In the World»

Uladzimir Matskevich: Trump has a sword of Damocles hanging above his head
Uladzimir Matskevich: Trump has a sword of Damocles hanging above his head
The hacking scandal is directed against Trump and sows doubts in the legitimacy of his victory.
Cultural heritage as a key to civic participation. CHOICE project in Ukraine
Cultural heritage as a key to civic participation. CHOICE project in Ukraine
Within the activities of the EU-funded CHOICE, Ihor Savcha, Centre for Cultural Management, visited Albertyna Buchynska and Roman Tarnavsky, Coordinators of the activities in Boryslav (Ukraine).
Hovsep Khurshudyan: Release of political prisoners is the main task of the civil society
Hovsep Khurshudyan: Release of political prisoners is the main task of the civil society
Dozens of activists remain in Armenian prisons, the police carries out political orders of the ruling elite, stresses a representative of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum released on bail.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Crimean provocation only drew attention to the relocations of Russian troops
Uladzimir Matskevich: Crimean provocation only drew attention to the relocations of Russian troops
Russia has no opportunities, i.e., no intent to unleash a full-scale war against Ukraine; but the destabilization of the situation in the country remains one of its main goals.
Vladimir Fesenko: If Russia was looking for an excuse, the war with Ukraine would have already begun
Vladimir Fesenko: If Russia was looking for an excuse, the war with Ukraine would have already begun
Ukraine doesn’t want to force a conflict; Kyiv and the West will most likely try to neutralize the current aggravation of Russian-Ukrainian relations.
Lithuania: Belarusian airplane violated the Lithuanian airspace
Lithuania: Belarusian airplane violated the Lithuanian airspace
Lithuania claims that the Belarusian airplane has violated its airspace.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister: Belarus won’t be able to sell electric power from the dangerous NPP
Lithuanian Foreign Minister: Belarus won’t be able to sell electric power from the dangerous NPP
Minsk should not deceive itself with hopes for joint operation the would-be Belarusian nuclear power plant in Astravets, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius said on Friday.
Uladzimir Matskevich: The situation in Armenia is as tense as it can be
Uladzimir Matskevich: The situation in Armenia is as tense as it can be
The revolt – social explosion – in Armenia is quite possible; however, it is not Sasna Tsrer actions that will work as a detonator.
Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan: Nomenclature games can lead to sharp change of political situation in Armenia
Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan: Nomenclature games can lead to sharp change of political situation in Armenia
The confrontation of several forces in Yerevan is a no-win, and tends to worsen, the head of the Eurasia Partnership Foundation, the publicist Gevorg Ter-Gabrielyan says.
Hovsep Khurshudyan: Sasna Tsrer group isn’t terrorist, but a response to the political mayhem of the state
Hovsep Khurshudyan: Sasna Tsrer group isn’t terrorist, but a response to the political mayhem of the state
On July 17, an armed group seized the building of the Patrol-Guard Service Regiment in Erebuni district of Yerevan. First National Security Service reported about "an armed group", then – "terrorists"
Attack in Nice: At least 84 people killed on a national holiday – Bastille Day
Attack in Nice: At least 84 people killed on a national holiday – Bastille Day
In Nice, at about 10.30 pm yesterday local time a truck slammed into a crowd of people celebrating Bastille Day and barrelled about 2 km.
EU extends sanctions against Russia for another 6 months at the least
Russia removed food embargo against Western countries
Russia removed food embargo against Western countries
The import of poultry meat, beef and vegetables, which are used for the production of baby food, is now allowed.
EHU Senate demands to immediately withdraw David Pollick and A. Lonsdale
EHU Senate demands to immediately withdraw David Pollick and A. Lonsdale
Following its meeting on May 25, the Senate of the European Humanities University (EHU) has approved the following Statement.
Uladzimir Matskevich: I
Uladzimir Matskevich: I'm afraid that Nadzeya Savchenko was too fast with her presidential ambitions
Savchenko’s attempts to oppose Poroshenko right now, not at the forthcoming elections, will only be beneficial for Kremlin.
Sergey Datsyuk: Savchenko is a Ukrainian Joan of Arc, capable of leading people
Sergey Datsyuk: Savchenko is a Ukrainian Joan of Arc, capable of leading people
Society attributes the role of a troublemaker to Savchenko, who won’t let the country stay oligarchical and calm.
European Commission allocates EUR 550 mln for Chernobyl projects
European Commission allocates EUR 550 mln for Chernobyl projects
This year we commemorate 30 years from the explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
Belarus rather risks its relations with Armenia than supports Russia’s growing role in the region
Belarus rather risks its relations with Armenia than supports Russia’s growing role in the region
About two weeks ago, on April 2, intensive clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh happened. Belarus’ reaction to it left Armenia deeply bewildered.
Lithuanian border guards intend to detain illegal migrants on the border with Belarus
Lithuanian border guards intend to detain illegal migrants on the border with Belarus
On April 12-13, Lithuanian border guards are holding a tactical exercise on the border with Belarus. The game is aimed at improving the staff skills to detaining illegal migrants.
Uladzimir Matskevich: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict today is of no use either to Armenia or Azerbaijan
Uladzimir Matskevich: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict today is of no use either to Armenia or Azerbaijan
By participating in all military and economic blocks with Russia, the Belarusian regime is trying to build the image of a neutral country and a peacemaker.
Gintautas Mažeikis: The relation of political field and arena in the framework of information war

In his report, philosopher Gintautas Mažeikis discusses several concepts that have been a part of the European social and philosophical thought for quite a time.

“It is our big joint work”

It is impossible to change life in cities just in three years (the timeline of the “Agenda 50” campaign implementation). But changing the structure of relationships in local communities is possible.

Shhh! Belarus Wants You to Think It’s Turning Over a New Leaf

Minsk’s muddled media clampdown could jeopardize warming of relations with the West.

Mikhail Matskevich: How to create a local agenda and make it a problem solving tool

To achieve changes, you need to be interested in them and stop pinning all hopes on the state.