The authorities are acting according to the scenario, predicted in February

The possibility of dialogue between Belarusian political actors, as well as the authorities’ attempt to evade the negotiations with the democratic forces and civil society, has been predicted at the beginning of the year. 

But back then, many politicians of the opposition forces wouldn’t listen to such a prediction.

In February 2011 Center for European Transformation, incorporated in an International consortium "EUROBELARUS", prepared a study named Strategy-2012: From the dialogue within the democratic forces towards the dialogue with the regime. It contained a peer review of the political situation in Belarus after the December presidential election. Strategy-2012 also offered the resuscitation techniques of the democratic forces and proposed their engagement in processes that could influence the political life of the country. A year of 2012 in the name of the paper was given not by chance. Indeed, at this time was scheduled a next test on the Belarus’ democratization - Parliamentary elections.

For example, as noted by the authors of the paper, "The main strategy of the regime in the near future will be creating of "tame” political opposition and civil society. The dialogue and negotiations’ subject has already become relevant in the regime’s rhetoric and it will continue to increase. At the same time, the Belarusian regime will do everything possible to avoid the real dialogue and negotiations".

Thus, back in February, there’ve been already described the authorities’ September proposal of the "round table" and the denial of Alexander Lukashenko to hold talks with the opposition.

Such kind of projections there are plenty in the Strategy-2012, but attempts of political consolidation under this paper failed this spring. That is, events predicted in the study are coming true, but the democratic forces are not ready to them. Why? This question a "Diary” addressed to the initiator of the document’s creation, philosopher and methodologist  Uladzimir Matskevich:

- Let me explain, we are not fortune tellers, astrologers. We consider possible development of the situation basing on the analysis of the processes taking place in this country. Strategy-2012is actually getting ahead and in one way or another, fragmentary or even almost entirely, is being accepted by many politicians and public figures. However, back in March, political scientist Yury Chavusau has suggested that this strategy has been universal for our situation. It will therefore be implemented even without its author, initiator, that is without me. This view can be agreed and disagreed with. Indeed, even today, while many politicians have convinced that only within this strategy one can work, they are acting under it, but everybody in his own fear of interception of leadership. Although, from my point of view, such an interception is not completely required. Strategy-2012 is designed for a specific change of the situation. The scenario is being unfolded, the background is set apart, the actors have taken their places. But the designed scenario leads to a known end. It predetermines the status quo. Lukashenko will win everybody, and everything will remain the same. The only thing that might change the situation will be if the actors act independently and unpredictable for the players of the other side. And the leading politicians do not understand this thing, as they have already adopted a scenario part. They are still trying to work within the template of habit; this is leading them to the loss. But while I know how the events will be unfolding, I can influence them.

- You said you know how the events will be unfolding. And how?

- Let's just stipulate that indiscretion. It turns out that I praise myself. But over the last six months we have seen that there is no other strategies. We are constantly monitoring the situation, adjusting our actions and keeping a finger on the pulse. And right now we are most prepared to step by step action. Our strategy was adopted at the European Commission level. Their statements and our position are the same.

- Is it possible to specify the actions of the authorities?

- The government will move towards the dialogue, as it has no choice. I can not say what steps it will take, say, tomorrow. I can predict what it will do. Authorities will try to set the Public Advisory Council at the Presidential Administration and the pliable civil society and opposition as representatives of civil society and opposition. They will improve their image, increase their influence. They will quarrel different associations and political parties among themselves, stimulating controversy. Our task is not to pay attention to these attempts. After all, the authorities will try to propose the partner established by them as the party with which to negotiate. In order that not we have chosen our representatives, but that these have been appointed to us. But now we got to the point of confrontation, when no question is being solved but at the very top. So we have to speak not with dummies structures, weak-willed ministers and deputies with no decision power and pro-government NGOs, but with those who really influence the situation. And they will have to talk to us because they have very serious problems. But if the government finds a way out of this situation, it will need no negotiations. And its current position is almost hopeless. However, for us the very condition of possibility of the negotiations is the release of political prisoners. 

 

by Andrei Aleksandrovich, EJ.BY