Belarus is losing an opportunity “to be a reliable partner both for the West and East”

"Belneftehim" concern has cancelled several major investment projects, including plans on repairing and building various objects, e.g. long-range pipelines. The Belarusian government officials now agree that there are no perspectives on raising the transit volume of Russian oil through the territory of the country.

The Russian company “Transneft” is starting to work on the second branch of the Baltic pipeline system. This project will allow Russia to stop pumping oil to the EU through Belarus and Poland. “The black gold” from Siberia will now go to Russian port Primorsk and then to Europe. The new pipeline will cost 2.5 billion dollars. Though, the “Transneft” management thinks that the execution of that project “will allow lowering the risks, connected with the transit through Belarusian territory.

This outcome might have well been expected, according to Leonid Zaiko, economist: “We decided that we can sit on that pipe, dictate our transit conditions to Russian and take oil and gas, so the Russians decided to take a detour. It was a normal producer’s reaction – to refuse the services of a bad transitioner”.

Each year about a half of Russian oil exports to Europe is going through Belarus. That is approximately 70-80 million tons. After the Baltic pipeline system is finished, Belarus will be denied most of that transit.

“If we used all the advantages given by our geographic position, we could’ve completely satisfied our needs in natural gas using transit, – states Yaroslav Romanchuk, economist. – We would’ve not only finished the construction of the first line of the “Yamal – Europe” gas pipeline, but also started building a second one. As a result, Belarus might have had good relations with Poland, Germany, the EU in general”.

 In expert’s opinion, Belarus has lost its attractiveness as a transit state.

“We lose hundreds millions of dollars due to our geopolitical “games”, – Yaroslav Romanchuk thinks. – Moreover, we lose perspectives. We are located in the centre of Europe but fail to benefit from that”.

Though, according to Leonid Zaiko, the economic losses will not be that serious. Belarus will lose mainly in political matters.

“It is possible to behave reasonably – to introduce market relations with both Russia and the EU. And as a result, be a reliable partner both for the West and East. But that doesn’t happen, that’s why Belarus loses in political sense”, – Leonid Zaiko points out.

This year the transit of Russian oil through Belarus has already dropped by 15 percent. And experts currently see no hints for change in the situation.

Andrej Aleksandrov
[email protected]