Generally speaking, “analysis” is a technique applied in order to clarify a complicated or vague situation and to illuminate possible or necessary consquential actions.(1) However, although the purpose of analysis is to enumerate and catalogue the component parts of the situation, sometimes changes in prevailing circumstances set preconditions and frameworks which may constrain the analysis.
Following the events of March 2006,
Belarus
entered into a new phase of its post-Soviet history. The 2006 Presidential elections consolidated the transformation from one phase to another and symbolised the general acceptance: "the regime, its functionaries and the silent part of the tolerant Belarus agreed with that there are no competitors to Lukashenko and that the regime will remain firmly established for as long as there is stability in the country"(2).
Analysis of the new conditions: from development to stagnation
By applying the broad categorisations: "Stagnation" and "Development", it is possible to evaluate different aspects of the operation of society in order to help understand the potential for change, actions required and also the broader significance of the events taking place. Analysis of these new conditions shows that the transformation of the political life of Belarusians from the 'development' stage to the 'stagnation' stage has been at least symbolically, consolidated.
Right from the start, immediately following independence, the Belarusian political landscape became an arena in which the radical and substantive qualitiative changes were either taking place or supposed to be taking place. However, this opportunity was not fully embraced and the and the scope for development was gradually narrowed and circumscribed by pre-existing vested interests.
The new, post independence forms of political discourse failed to establish deep roots quickly enough, thus creating a void which the old Soviet norms of political life rapidly moved to fill. The 2006 Elections symbolised the end of the period where there was potential for development in the political sphere of Belarusian society.
The status of the Belarusian political environment can be described using a set of characteristics familiar from the 1970s and the beginning of 1980s: "superficial wellbeing, unrestricted power of the executive, laziness and lack of initiative on the part of society, coupled with emerging economic problems, vainglorious communiques and a hostile external environment with which peaceful relations are maintained despite temporary aggravations"…(3)
This set of circumstances can be qualitatively described as the onset of a stagnation period as this accurately reflects the fact that the political sphere ceased to be an arena where substantive actions and shifts in policy might take place. Superficially, this void is filled by protest actions, demonstrations, leaflets, trades unions and congresses etc., however these are all activities of insignificant power and have a “ritualised” character.
Nevertheless, the potential for change did not vanish entirely, it merely became deflected and embedded into other spheres of life. This is similar to the situation that existed in the latter days of the
Soviet Union
, when the 'stagnation' in the social and political spheres was accompanied by development in more 'cerebral' spheres: knowledge, culture, art and all that made 'Perestroika' possible. With the transition to a new historic phase, 'development' moved to the political, social and economic spheres of life while at the same time 'stagnation' developed in scientific and cultural thinking. At the moment Belarusian society resembles the late Soviet period: with all the most important, advanced, and significant developments occurring in the areas of: knowledge, education and culture. This is where Belarusian society is continuing to develop and this is where pressure for wider changes will begin.
Analytical work is at its most important when considering activities in the area of 'development'. The activities and achievements may be vague and obscure but they retain genuine power in contrast to vacuous “headline” achieving greater publicity.
Within this framework we shall try to analyze the significance of 'Christian democracy' both as an idea and in terms of its practical implementation in contemporary
Belarus
. Before continuing it is necessary to outline the core ideals of Christian Democracy per se, and then to consider the potential and opportunities this would offer for
Belarus
. We will then proceed to consider some concrete forms of implementation in the specific circumstances arising after the 2006 elections.
The Idea of Christian Democracy
The core ideology of “Christian Democracy” is potentially one of the most promising for application in the current political environment. There are several reasons for this: firstly, Christian Democracy aims to 'influence the minds of the masses' and has the most realistic 'social framework' for doing so - Christian communities. Although they are relatively small in scale, these communities have real social organization, unlike 'theoretical classes'(4) such as peasants, entrepreneurs or even pensioners. Communities, churches and unions allow groups of people to present and promote ideas in society as a whole and in the political sphere in particular. This creates an opportunity for targeted and planned (as opposed to chaotic and spontaneous) expressions of solidarity and the organisaiton of common activities. The potential of such Christian communities was demonstrated during the hunger-strike of the 'New Life' Church in October 2006. No other political ethos would have such a ready made social foundation. All ideas are, without exception, based on the existence of this social layer, rather than on existing organizations, and this layer is rather large numerically and could (or could not) potentially become one of these organized groups.
Additionally, Christian Democracy is a political ideology that could be attractive to the Belarusian population in contrast and competition with Social Democracy. In this context Christian Democracy is one of the most likely proposals to find support from the Belarusian people when they are presented with a choice.
This is because there is a basic correspondence between the social and cultural lifestyle of the population of
Belarus
and the basic ideas and values of Christian Democracy. Christian Democracy includes elements of traditionalism and conservatism as well as embodying the principles of sovereignty of the people and democracy. Both of these elements are likely to be attractive or at least not to be flatly rejected by the population due to stereotypes, purposes and models of understanding and behaviour.
Application in the Belarusian Situation
The generic political idea of “Christian Democracy” is implemented slightly differently in each specific country and situation. Prevalent conditions in a given country and the type of action required tends to predetermine formulas and strategies of concrete implementation. What are the prospects for the application of Christian Democracy given prevailing conditions of 'stagnation' in the social and political sphere? Is it likely that traditional political actions could lead to the development and promotion of such an idea? It is obvious, based on our understanding of the prevailing situation as a state of 'stagnation', that this would not be possible in respect of Christian Democracy. For example, the issue of creating a Christian political party is resolved when there are people prepared to create such party while also taking into account to what extent such a political structure could correspond to its place and purpose.
When considering prevailing conditions with regard to the necessity and possibility for the creation of a Christian party, one has to answer two key questions.
Firstly, whether such a 'political party' is an institution, playing an active role in the political process in the existing stagnated conditions, or whether there is a place for parties and genuine party activities in the political field. Secondly, there is the issue of substance, i.e. what would make the party 'Christian' apart from its name or in what way and using what instruments could the party represent and defend the interests of the Christian Community. If the answers to these two questions were positive and well-founded, then an initiative regarding the creation of such a party makes sense and the party would be able to benefit from all the potential of the idea of the Christian Democracy, mentioned above.
In the event that the answers to those questions are not positive, one should reject the idea of the creation of a Christian party. That is the main reason why in 2006 the process of creating of a Christian Party within the framework of the Movement was suspended. Indeed, regarding the first question, we have to acknowledge, that political parties as active participants in political life stopped playing their role back at the end of the 20th Century and after March 2006 their existence became absolutely impotent and tokenistic.
In a situation where a totalitarian state declares a multi-party system, the parties are only a superficial, decorative touch and cannot exert any real influence over the life of the country. The issue is not so much about the about the parties themselves (in terms of their authority and correct strategy) but about the political organisation of such a society which excludes any other political players other than the state institutions. The mechanisms of rule within a country do not dictate the existence or otherwise of political parties per se. It is merely that the existing parties do not exercise any power within the political system and newly created parties do not have a chance to do so unless the system changes. In conditions of authoritarian or totalitarian rule political activity takes other organizational forms, for instance National movements, dissident groups and underground organizations.
Regarding the linkage between a party and the Christian Community which could make that party Christian by character; this could only be achieved via direct participation of Christian priests, bishops, pastors etc. in the management and development of the party – i.e. those who could legitimately speak on behalf of Christian community. This does not mean that they have to be the leaders of the party or that the party should primarily consist of such people their task would be to legitimize the process of party creation and to promote Christian Democratic values among politically active Christians. Failure to involve such representatives in the establishment and control of the party would result in the link between the party and Christians community being only be nominal in nature. Under present circumstances where there is general apathy and passivity throughout civil society the necessity of establishing such relations must contend with the general reluctance of the leaders of Christian communities to act as a political force. Disintegration, internal problems and contradictions should be added here.
Strategy for action in the present conditions
What is required and what can be done in a situation of a social and political 'stagnation'? How can 'development' be achieved in this situation? Development is possible in the intellectual and educational spheres and training and improvement of the social positions of supporters of Christian values. Therefore the first thing that could be done to promote of the idea of Christian Democracy is Christian education in a general sense. This primarily means civil education, i.e. raising the self awareness of citizens regarding the “State of the Nation”; professional education and improving overall levels of general knowledge. Such self improvement would be the main source for development in the future, when Christians would receive the opportunity and would be prepared to exert an active influence on social standards. So far, the majority of Christians only passively live through events rather than taking part in them.
During the Soviet Era Christians had to lead a semi-legal existence and their life was built around their families and Church community. The beginning of 90s removed these restrictions and lead to significant growth of the communities and changed some forms of church social activity. However such changes did not influence the basics of the Christian lifestyle, only a few Christian Communities have encouraged their members to take an active social and political position and to be involved in the process of social changes. The narrowing of the scope for political and social engagement in
Belarus
leads to the resurrection of these Soviet forms of existence. The deeper the involvement in matters of Faith, the more common becomes disengagement from political and social life as well as career, etc. This return to voluntary isolation signifies a regression for Christian society. Regardless of all the complications of the current historical period, Christians should not introspectively lock their attention away within themselves otherwise achieving the ability to influence society in general might take several decades. The prospects for occupying key positions depends on the readiness and will and also on the capability to think and to act in a certain way: one should be able to analyze the situation, set goals, elaborate both short-term projects and long-term programmes and be able to participate in discussions, etc.
Another area requiring improvement is development of the social foundations of communities. These social institutions are well developed and capable of setting their own tasks and organizing their activities. They have the potential to defend themselves in an aggressive environment. In the future such independent structures and organizations might become the source for a broader public movement towards democracy. Today the Christian Communities are weak and dispersed. Most of them are focussed entirely upon local problems or issues within their confessions. Such a position allows them to support their existence and to resist external pressure however it does not improve the development of Christian communities overall. One should look at things from a different angle to achieve that. Ways of thinking and stereotypes should be changed and strategies and modus operandi improved. This can be taught and it could be learned.
Any, even the least significant movement in the above mentioned directions would constitute a step towards significant development unlike colourful actions in the political field.
1The main task of the analysis is not to find the truth about the situation in a country contrary to the scientific research. Such an obvious thesis is a subject for arguments and grounds for mutual disagreement in the Belarusian expert environment. Therefore without getting into the issue we would like to clarify our position once more. Findingthetruthisnotthemaintaskoftheanalysis. It is aiming at analysis of the conditions, description of opportunities and perspectives in given circumstances.
2Matskevich V.V. «Slides for Summer and Slides for Winter» // http://worvik.livejournal.com/61457.html
3Matskevich V.V. «Slides for Summer and Slides for Winter» // http://worvik.livejournal.com/61457.htmlCharacter of the situation in
Belarus
could be described in three theses: Cubanisation of the regime, Arafatisation of the opposition, passiveness of the civil society.
4While talking about 'theoretical classes', analysts and researchers mean possible similarity of interests, goals, gabitus, models of behaviour, etc., taking into account similarity in the social and economic state, status, etc., of people. It is viewed that 'paper classes', described by analysts could create real social communities, become political forces, have solidarity and perform joint actions to achieve common goals. They might become such communities or not, staying only on 'paper'.
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