The results of the election campaign will affect
investment, travel of officials to the EU countries and even cheaper visas for
tourists.Sometimes it seems that
Europe
is interested in Belarusian parliamentary elections-2008 even more than Belarusians
themselves! The EU and
U.S.
made it clear under what conditions we'll be friends again. The first and the main
condition was the release of the ex-presidential candidate Alexander Kazulin,
the second, parliamentary elections, which observers from the OSCE and the CIS would
recognize as honest and fair.
The first condition has been fulfilled. On Saturday,
Alexander Kazulin was released from the
Vitebsk
prison. He served 2 years and 1 month (sentenced to 5.5 years).
Now the second condition is in the line.
The President
instructed to make friends with Europe and the U.S.A.
“
Belarus
again faces complications in relations with
Russia. Experts say that the main
battle for the price of gas we will have in the autumn, and that a contract
will be signed by the Catholic Christmas, or even by the New Year. The country
must have a backup therefore now we need
Europe,”
explains the friendly attitude a political analyst Denis MELYANTSOV.
Recently, the President instructed the MFA to establish
relations with the
United States
and
Europe. However the desire to make friends
is coming not from our side alone. In the West, too, is interested in
Belarus.
“Those countries having an economic interest in
Belarus are the
most interested in a dialogue with the latter. For instance,
Germany,
France
and
Britain
due to the fact there are transnational corporations there… In the Western
business community the perception that Lukashenko should "fly on two
wings" (that is, to communicate with
Russia and the West. - Ed.)”, expressed
his opinion to "Komsomolka" a German political scientist Alexander RAR.
It is so indeed. The information field now reports that Western companies are
invited to
Belarus.
There is no negative news from
Belarus,
unlike from both from
Russia
and
Ukraine.
It signifies that the movement on economic rails has already started.
The
electoral campaign is more important than voting results
Now European and American officials are waiting for the
movement on political tracks and in the first place they follow the
parliamentary elections. The assessment of elections by the CIS and the OSCE (Organization
for Security and Cooperation in
Europe)
observers will be crucial. For reference, in 2004 the observers from the CIS countries
recognized our elections as democratic. The observers from the OSCE made the
opposite conclusion back then.
“The recognition or non-recognition of the elections is
surely politically motivated. I think, the elections will be recognized if the
OSCE representatives at least will be able to observe the elections and to make
an assessment. If they are recognized as free, but not entirely honest, as in
Russia or partially in
Ukraine, it
would be positive and the recognitions will take place,” believes Alexander RAR.
“There will be a problem is there would be a feeling that something is hidden. At
the moment, a crucial part of the campaign is ongoing, which is even more
important than the voting day itself. In the course of the election campaign
there is an opportunity for the appearance on the TV screens if not for the opposition,
but for an alternative view at the politics of
Belarus…
A Belarusian political analyst is more skeptical:
“Right now already it is difficult to fully recognize
the elections as fair, too few representatives of the opposition became members
of the local electoral commissions. It is too soon to draw conclusions. Many
things depend on how many violations there will be and whether the opposition
will get to the Parliament, said Denis MELYANTSOV.
However
there are strong requirements to the process
|
Expectations of Europe and
the
U.S.
|
Belarusian
actions
|
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The release of prisoners the
U.S. and the EU consider
political. There are three names in the list: Alexander Kozulin and Sergei
Parsyukevich, Andrew Kim.
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Alexander Kozulin is already released
As of August 19, Sergei Parsyukevich and Andrew Kim
were still in prison.
|
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Opportunity for all wishing to participate in the election campaign, to register
initiative groups and collect signatures.
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There were 423 initiative groups.
23 of them were denied in registration.
|
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Those who gathered signatures should be able to register candidates
for Deputies.
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This process is ongoing. Until August 19, all those who gathered
signatures submitted them for consideration in the district election
commissions. Results of registration will be announced after 28 August.
|
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An opportunity for each candidate to freely conduct the election
campaign, to meet with voters.
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It is possible to meet with voters in specially designated areas. The latter
identified by the executive authorities. In
Minsk for some candidates crowded places
were assigned for others in remote areas.
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Access to the media for candidates.
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By law, each candidate for a Deputy is guaranteed an opportunity to
publish its programme, a 5 - minute speech on television and radio.
|
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Inclusion of representatives of various political views Iinto the
district election commissions.
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42 representatives of the opposition became members
of the commissions. Overall, there are 1430 members.
However, during the Presidential Elections there
were no representatives from the opposition in these commissions.
|
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Inclusion of the opposition into the precinct election commissions.
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Of the 1.5 thousand applicants for membership in the precinct
commissions, 48 were chosen. Meanwhile there are 6.5 thousand members of the
commissions to meet and to count votes.
|
Businessmen
and tourists will benefit from the recognition of the Elections
“The recognition of the Elections would be a powerful
diplomatic breakthrough, which will give a lot to the country. Firstly, it
concerns political benefits. Today the West is applying the principle of “limited
participation" in relation to
Belarus, i.e. they do not meet with
our high level officials: the President, the Prime Minister, even the visits of
Deputies are limited. With the recognition of the election the stamp of the "last
dictatorship in Europe" will be removed from
Belarus, high level visits and
contacts will be taking place. Alexander Lukashenko will be able to go to
Europe, while the European leaders will visit us. The
second benefit is economic. Investors must be confident that the country is
accepted by the "decent society", that the rules of the game in the
economy are established. With the attraction of the investment there will be
more money in the budget, the salaries will grow, etc. And finally, a very
practical issue concerning visas will be solved. We do not participate in the
European Neighborhood Policy, and one of the reasons behind it concerns unfair
elections. If they are recognized the issue will be withdrawn. That would open
the door to cheaper visas, like in
Ukraine where they pay 35 euros”,
explains Denis Melyantsov.
Investors from
Britain have already declared in a
clear manner what their expectations were. At a debate in the English
Parliament a Deputy Michael Pritchard said:
“I know British companies interested in expanding their business and
work in
Minsk
and in other Belarusian cities. However they fear that as a result of this
process their reputations may be affected. Those companies represent a series
of missed opportunities for the Belarusian economy! The process of the Parliamentary
Elections in September 2008 will play a significant role. The key word is the "process".
The international community is not so much interested in the result however in
the way it was achieved. The EU and hundreds of European companies, including
the
UK, are looking forward
to a democratic approving nod from
Belarus!
Source
