Is it the end of an era of political prisoners?

The last two prisoners regarded by the West as political have been released. Will it lead to the warming of the relations between Belarus and the European Union or it will the latter insist on implementing the remaining eleven conditions?

August 2008 can already be considered as a historic landmark. The Belarusian leadership fully complied with one of the 12 EU conditions. After Alexander Kazulin, released from prison a few days earlier, Parsyukevich Sergei and Andrei Kim were set free. Now the West may crumple the list of Belarusian political prisoners and through it in a waste basket. Is it really it?

One should not feel euphoria though. One should remember that in winter, we have already witnessed a "package" liberation of "political" prisoners: Avtuhovich, Dashkevich, Finkevich and others. Then it all got stuck with Kozulin. As a result, a real diplomatic war with America was launched: eye for eye, tooth for a tooth, and the entire plan to normalize the relations with the West flew down the slope.

And that's what revealing: a list of "political" prisoners immediately replenished after that. Precisely with the very Parsyukevichem and Kim, who were released now with a fine gesture. Back then in spring, these participants of winter street protests of entrepreneurs were sentenced in show trials, as many analysts believed. As they say, since the authorities didn’t manage to agree with the West, they decided to ‘threat’ the opposition to stop people talking about the warming up of the relations.

Therefore so far we only observe symbolic gestures from the Belarusian authorities that have no connection to the actual democratization and respect for human rights. This is only the elimination of those anomalies (such as: former presidential candidate behind bars!) that made the eyes of the West sore.

There are no grounds to talk about the principal shift towards ceasing the persecution of opponents of the authorities, changing for the better the framework conditions of the internal policy and creating the grounds for competitive politics. Therefore Europe and the United States in the statements of their representatives stressed yesterday that they expected further steps from Minsk.

In particular, among the 11 remaining conditions of Brussels is “the holding of free elections, the liberalization of the "third sector", improving conditions for non-governmental press”, etc. In the meantime, we have witnessed the adoption of a repressive, in the view of independent media experts, new Law on the Media. When there is no opportunity to publicly express views different from the "general line" one by definition should not be talking about democracy.

According to independent analysts, further development of the relations between Minsk and Europe will be largely determined by the Russian factor. Thus, the Belarusian authorities would very much like to break the ice in the relations with the West: to attract investment, technology and in general to secure their rear against the pressure of the ‘energy empire’ from the East. Yet in this area they would like to confine to symbolic steps and cosmetic changes. The authorities are not ready for real democratization and therefore, naturally, there will be no breakthrough with regard to the West in any case. There will be tedious political bargaining.

Even the bargaining may derail at any moment if Moscow starts vigorous twist of hands, in particular, after it has been inspired by its ‘victory’ in the Caucasus. Russia has its own plans regarding "standing up from its knees" and an "asymmetric response" to the deployment of the U.S. defense missiles in Europe, etc. The involvement of Belarus in these geopolitical "deconstruction" with militaristic tinge may undermine the prospects of the Minsk warmed up relations with the West.

Therefore now Belarus is at another point of bifurcation. It is time to make choices, talking in simple words. My personal opinion is that leadership will choose a manoeuvring tactics, playing on the contradictions between Russia and the West. This way, in the sphere of foreign policy of Belarus, one should expect a tortuous plot with the uncertain prospect.

By Alexander KLASKOVSKY

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